RamblinRed

Article on wing gust as well as early predictions on insurance damage. The fact that alot of Acapulco (including some commercial real estate) is not insured is going to make this even worse long term. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/11/01/hurricane-otis-produced-205-mph-wind-gust-among-strongest-ever-measured/ “The direct physical damage and net-loss business interruption costs from Hurricane Otis will result in a minimum $10 billion in economic losses,” Steve Bowen, chief science officer for the global reinsurance broker Gallagher Re, said in an email. “It will be one of the costliest natural catastrophe events on record for Mexico.” Verisk, a data analytics and technology firm, estimates insured losses of 3 to 6 billion dollars, most of it due to Otis’s extreme winds.

I know the focus in on FL but the 12Z runs are really bad news for GA. Valdosta and Savannah could be looking at direct hits and metro Atlanta would get alot more weather (depending upon how bad the west side of the cane is) than it appeared 24 hours ago. Atlanta has a huge tree canopy so high winds and heavy rain could lead to alot of power outages. Also, the entire GA coast would be on the dirty side and have onshore action along the barrier islands.

According to NHC not quite on land yet. BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...THE CENTER OF IAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING LASHING THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 79.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina * Neuse River North Carolina * St. Johns River Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River * Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico River * Cape Fear River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Cape Fear to Surf City North Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 79.1 West. Ian is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). Ian is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest by tonight and will move inland across eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian should weaken rapidly after landfall soon and transition into a post-tropical cyclone overnight. Ian should dissipate over western North Carolina or Virginia late Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). A WeatherFlow station at Morris Island Lighthouse recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (131 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data.

21 confirmed deaths in FL so far (no official deaths in yet from Lee County). Keep in mind that Lee County is by far the largest of the counties mentioned with close to 800,000 residents. Charlotte County is around 200,000. Polk is around 700,000, though it is inland. Collier County about 400,000. As of Friday morning, there were 12 deaths in Charlotte County believed to be tied with the hurricane; eight in Collier County and one in Polk County, according to state officials. Officials, however, did not speculate the possible number of fatalities in badly-hit Lee County, The state, aided by federal and local responders, has performed more than 700 rescues thus far and made contact with 3,000 people who sheltered in place throughout the massive storm In one particularly grim incident, a rescue diver in an unspecified county encountered a home with water over its rooftop. Inside, there appeared to be “human remains” but officials won’t be able to confirm anything until the flood waters reside, Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said Friday. One of the state’s top priorities as of Friday is working with federal and local officials to repair the water main break in Lee County, DeSantis said. The water main damage means that no water is currently getting to the county and its 750,000-plus residents. Hardee County is almost completely powerless while Charlotte and Lee counties are facing outages of roughly 85 percent. About 80 percent of customers are without power in DeSoto County while Sarasota, Collier and Manatee counties have about 50 percent of their electricity in operation. Schools in Lee, Charlotte and Collier counties could be closed even longer. Officials in Lee County are even unable to update the school district website due to outages.

Really good article from Jeff Masters and Bob Henson https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/09/ians-rampage-across-florida-leaves-a-trail-of-ruin/ Dry air on the south side of Ian’s circulation limited the amount of rain that fell to the right side of its track, but the hurricane’s intensity, large size, and relatively slow forward speed (30% slower than average) allowed it to dump prodigious amounts of rain along the left side of the track. Thirteen river gauges were at major flood stage on Thursday afternoon, and four rivers or creeks were at their highest flood stages on record. A CoCoRaHS site near New Smyrna Beach recorded an astounding 28.60 inches of rain in 27 hours. The storm surge at the Fort Myers tide gauge brought a water level that peaked at 7.25 feet Wednesday, smashing the previous record of 3.41 feet above mean higher high water (MHHW) set in Tropical Storm Keith (November 23, 1988). Before the tide gauge at Naples went out of service during the storm around 1 p.m. Wednesday, it recorded a peak water level above MHHW of 6.18 feet, far above the record since 1965 of 4.02 feet set in Hurricane Irma (September 10, 2017). As of 3 p.m. EDT on Thursday, September 29, Ian had knocked out power to over 2.6 million customers in Florida – approximately 24% of the state’s customers – according to poweroutage.us. In coastal Georgia, Ian’s winds were already beginning to topple trees and power lines on Thursday afternoon, with 8,000 customers without power at 3 p.m. EDT. Ian will also be interacting with a broad frontal zone across the Southeast, so it could take on more characteristics of a midlatitude storm over time. The frontal zone will help increase onshore winds ahead of Ian, boosting its storm surge potential, as will the effect of the seasonal king tides. Ian no longer has an eyewall with a focused extreme wind maximum, so the exact location of landfall will not be a critical factor determining damage. The National Weather Service tidal gauge forecast at Fort Pulaski, Georgia, near Savannah, is predicting a crest of 10.9 feet with the midday-Friday high tide. This would be the third highest crest on record, topped only by 12.56 feet from Hurricane Matthew in 2016, and 12.24 feet from Irma in 2017. At the forecast peak, Tybee Island would experience widespread significant flooding and would be cut off from the mainland. In South Carolina, Charleston Harbor is predicted to see a crest of 8.7 feet with the midday Friday high tide, which would rank among the ten highest crests on record there. The predicted crest of 8.9 feet at Myrtle Beach would be that location’s fifth highest on record – far below the 16 feet recorded during Hurricane Hugo in 1989, but still enough to produce widespread street flooding.

Interesting article on how some Floridians could be waiting weeks, or longer, to get power back due to a combination of how much of the grid is destroyed vs salvageable as well as supply chain shortages of electrical equipment like transformers. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/29/ians-mass-blackouts-supply-chain-00059389 The article mentions the wait time for some electrical equipment is currently 2-3 years and this means electric utilities have to use their backup supplies or swap equipment with other providers. Of course that simply further depletes supplies putting more strain on the system before the next hurricane or wildfire or tornado strikes.

Here are the radar loops for Tampa Bay https://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KTBW/loop.html https://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KTBW2/loop.html https://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KTBW3/loop.html The first one is in tighter. The other 2 are over wider distances. These loops make it look like it is moving due north right now.

FWIW, here is WSB (Atlanta) latest estimated snow map for Metro Atlanta and N GA. I'd actually would be pretty happy with this as I live in the HollySprings/Canton area of Cherokee County and that would put me in the 2-3 inch of snow range. Would be enough that we could take out the new sleds we bought in 2018 and haven't been able to use yet. Seems like metro Atlanta is largely likely to get out without too many issues, though the area from Lake Lanier and to the NE should hopefully get a nice storm.

The Vine Street Expressway photos and videos are the most amazing to me. That water has to be at least 12-14' deep in some areas. The pictures and videos of the Schulykill River from NW of Philly through downtown are just insane. I lived there for a couple of years in the 90's and I could never even imagine that type of flooding that they saw. It is also much more built up along there than it was 20 years ago.

The NHC also shows it slowing down once it gets close to LA. Based on their cones it looks like they only have it moving 60-80 miles from the coast-inland over a 12 hour period. That is going to be alot of wind and rain.

The heavy rain associated with Henri not only forced the concert celebrating New York City's comeback to be cut short Saturday, but it also resulted in New York City's Central Park beating its daily rainfall record with 4.45 inches of rain. The old record was 4.19 inches of rain, which was from 1888. It was also New York City's wettest day since 2014. The storm also broke the city's all-time hourly rainfall record. "The 1.94" of rain that fell from 10pm to 11pm at Central Park last night was the wettest hour on record for New York City," the NWS in New York tweeted this morning. 3.78" of rain between 10 pm and midnight.

Apparently Fred did a number on Western, NC. There are currently 30 people missing in Haywood County, North Carolina (west of Asheville) after flooding there. https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/18/weather/tropical-depression-fred-wednesday/index.html

The 8 am update has the pressure down to 943 MB. Also, if the storm follows the recent Euro run I don't think GA is really prepared for that. The preparations in GA have not been nearly as substantial as the Carolinas. That run where it goes up over central GA would have it going right over Atlanta which has over 6M people.