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    Michael Butler

June pattern and forecast discussion


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2 schools of thought regarding this week - after these near term POS days. 

1 .. Telecon/mass field indicators support western height falls, and eastern conus rises.  Now ... yeah, these correlations are less significant in summer, but ... we also have an overactive westerly issue spanning the hemisphere. Faster jets equate to longer, more coherent planetary waves. 

When I look back across this PNA( c/o CPC) ... yeah, it's not a terrible fit to have failed to deliver bigger heat to NE given the last 20 days


We spent this month so far, in a pretty significant/robust +PNA... In fact, the integral of the curve above doesn't need to be calculated, its clearly the most robust since March 1.  So any -PNAP intra-pattern and weekly modeling gesture, probably did not have a very good statistical footing to begin with for bringing heat NE. 

But look where that index mode is heading ?? 

2 .. Climate inferential: What goes down must come up.. Otherwise, climate change is actually a cooling problem - which that is definitely not happening.  Anecdotally - but still closer to fact - cold(hot) snaps are either corrected in one of two ways.  Either single event of equal but diametric significance, or ... there is an aggregate of more modest ones that account over time.  This is also a shaky logic, because there's time scale and relativity involved.  It could be cold for a month and take 3 months to correct - in which case, it wasn't 'correctable' until a much longer time span accrued than the single month... and on and so on.  That's why we haven't had a decent winter since 2015 down here in SNE ... because it will take ( apparently ...) the age of the known cosmos to make up for that f'n lunacy that took place back then...

Well...  anyway... I'm not sure the operational models are really presently representing what that look above could pack inside of it.  Just as the integral over the least 20 or days is the most positive since Mar 1 ...so too is the forecast mean going negative in the next two weeks.  The operational Euro and GFS seem to be ignoring it and I wonder if they'll break the other way at some point here


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