Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,123
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    laikakat
    Newest Member
    laikakat
    Joined

June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
 Share

Recommended Posts

53 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Some indication of a chilly mid month period coming.   First week should be warm.

It's interesting ... if one is a tedious nerd ( lol ) ... 

No but it could be a 'warm continental look,' while not resulting that way over eastern NE - which doesn't take a lot of prose to explain how/why if one knows anything at all about this region's climate.  'Blah blah bd have you any wool'

The problem emerged more so over the last 24 hours, so 4 cycles of models.   The Euro and GGEM bit really hard on the BD idea in the 00z run.  So much so that we actually would put together a negative high temp anomaly on Tuesday and Wednesday - complete 180 reversal. 

This is one those places in the world where late mid range model error can be so excessive as to be diametrical.  I mean, two days ago, 95-100 near historic heat wave, poof!   55 F BD joy destroyer.  I guess it's better than the 1980s, when it would happen on the day its self.  I remember a couple of memorable BDs in mid to late 80s where the forecast was 90 the night before a day that wound up slate gray with cool passing mist.   It used to be short duration error/correction - blind sided. At least now the tech is sophisticated enough to at least be sensitive to it at extended leads.

The question is, how much or little in this situation.   Thing is, I can see this going either direction - interestingly, the last 2 runs of the GFS have done just that.  The 06z removed the BD entirely..The 12z brought it half way back.  Which means it has had 100% in both directions in the last 24 hours worth of runs.   

My thing is the -NAO. 

1    It's been progged in the various guiadance for some time.  As is usually the case...it is stochastic within the frame-work of the daily model depictions.  Whether the blocking is biased over the western domain, or east...matters.  The east may allow the wave spacing room to pass the flow flatter off the Maritimes... But if it bumps west more, that probably parks 50/50 sort of aspect there and we'd be doomed to cool departures in a warm pattern.  

2   The other aspect on that is, the -NAO is notoriously over-sold/constructed at this range...

3   ...Related to that, we are still seeing vestiges of a progressive pattern. It's why the closed low got abolished from the runs recently, transforming the outlook for Mem Day substantially improved.  But that tendency doesn't really lend to NAO blocks.  If #2 and #3 prevail, these recent BD/heat cancel ideas are model hoaxes and we roast.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6/1 looks on the wet side.   It seems like 6/1-10 appears aob with some forays into dews at times but honestly the way it’s setting up 6/15 on may be well above.   So summer haters should try to enjoy the next 2 weeks.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Could see stuff form along the backdoor Tuesday night. Could be some decent lightning given ample MUCAPE. The backdoor though really mucks things up for Wednesday and how far west to go for chasing ughhhh. Right along that boundary may not be a bad spot but the question is...where the hell will it set up?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wednesday may be a rock-bottom day.  wow at the shear magnitude of that gloom -

12z NAM has Logan 48 or so Wednesday morning at 8 am under putrid gray skies.  Really only gets to about 53 there before those strata rains come in toward dusk. 

Not sure how far inland that appeal claims ....but, seeing as the boundary clearly surpasses NYC's latitude...with sharp temp cuts upon NE wind shift around 8 pm tomorrow night, this is intending to inundate.  Even ALB sees the dense Labradorian miasm spill west of the Berks/Greens, and all locations have problems with cloud layering and trapped/isolated cold in the regions Wed night, while strata rains pass through.  Maybe we can at least get an 1" in the tills...

This is a highly unusual total hemispheric look through these first 10 days.  -AO has become an overwhelmingly dominant signal in the guidance.   It gets very complex, but the suppression south of the westerlies, around the entire northern Hemisphere, as is portrayed in all ens some sources/means therein, and is triggering high jet velocities to weirdly south latitudes. 

 

image.png.16a0766e6a17971d86b5b323c1316349.png

That mechanically induces R-wave structures, a behavior that is lagging unusually deeply into the climate season, when they are typically breaking down.  As above, the Pacific has an usual 'firehose' jet configuration coming into the west coast with a very vast trough over the top/embedded nadirs... Normally, that would send heights higher over mid latitude of N/A but we are not seeing that happen. The blocking at 60 N is forcing the main westerlies jet S, keeping modest negative anomalies across the expanse of the mid latitude continent, instead.  

It's just not very summer like.  That Pacific above looks like a late October or early November circulation construct, with onset velocities --> R-wave coherency. 

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/29/2022 at 4:38 PM, weathafella said:

6/1 looks on the wet side.   It seems like 6/1-10 appears aob with some forays into dews at times but honestly the way it’s setting up 6/15 on may be well above.   So summer haters should try to enjoy the next 2 weeks.

Certainly will! I'll worry about the second half of the month when it gets here.

  • Like 1
  • Confused 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/29/2022 at 4:38 PM, weathafella said:

6/1 looks on the wet side.   It seems like 6/1-10 appears aob with some forays into dews at times but honestly the way it’s setting up 6/15 on may be well above.   So summer haters should try to enjoy the next 2 weeks.

COC summer days are the way it should be run. Not liking HHH doesn't mean hating summer 

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wednesday may be a rock-bottom day.  wow at the shear magnitude of that gloom -

12z NAM has Logan 48 or so Wednesday morning at 8 am under putrid gray skies.  Really only gets to about 53 there before those strata rains come in toward dusk. 

Not sure how far inland that appeal claims ....but, seeing as the boundary clearly surpasses NYC's latitude...with sharp temp cuts upon NE wind shift around 8 pm tomorrow night, this is intending to inundate.  Even ALB sees the dense Labradorian miasm spill west of the Berks/Greens, and all locations have problems with cloud layering and trapped/isolated cold in the regions Wed night, while strata rains pass through.  Maybe we can at least get an 1" in the tills...

This is a highly unusual total hemispheric look through these first 10 days.  -AO has become an overwhelmingly dominant signal in the guidance.   It gets very complex, but the suppression south of the westerlies, around the entire northern Hemisphere, as is portrayed in all ens some sources/means therein, and is triggering high jet velocities to weirdly south latitudes. 

 

image.png.16a0766e6a17971d86b5b323c1316349.png

That mechanically induces R-wave structures, a behavior that is lagging unusually deeply into the climate season, when they are typically breaking down.  As above, the Pacific has an usual 'firehose' jet configuration coming into the west coast with a very vast trough over the top/embedded nadirs... Normally, that would send heights higher over mid latitude of N/A but we are not seeing that happen. The blocking at 60 N is forcing the main westerlies jet S, keeping modest negative anomalies across the expanse of the mid latitude continent, instead.  

It's just not very summer like.  That Pacific above looks like a late October or early November circulation construct, with onset velocities --> R-wave coherency. 

Music to my ears.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, kdxken said:

Roosters are crowing. Seems to never end.

That's a lot of goldilocks weather showing up in the ensembles for June. No major heat on the horizon

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1531764819291947008

This summer isn't shaping up to be half bad.....I don't expect summer to be exciting in terms of sensible weather, just stay out of my damn way and it keep it comfortable, as I track the tropics and await the cold season.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We want ass in summer, not winter. lol

This is great....get a cool summer, active cane season followed by a decent winter, then its back to Africa in time to skip over next spring.

No ass please. Hopefully the torch starts mid month. We have enough of this weather in the Spring.

  • Confused 1
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We want ass in summer, not winter. lol

This is great....get a cool summer, active cane season followed by a decent winter, then its back to Africa in time to skip over next spring.

We’re not getting a cool summer lol. Gonna HHH mid June on 

  • Haha 2
  • Confused 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The cause is different than spring, though.  Not that anyone cares what the whip looks like. Make it stop - right?   

This is an unusual phenomenon that needs its own space/attention:  excessive -AO  

It's not as traditional looking as that which we may observe amid the winter months, however - it's actually quite bizarre.  Large vertical height anomaly nodes in the 60/...70 latitude, that have less horizontal dimensions.  If we average out the polar domain of this annotation below, it numerically produces a fantastic -AO total, ...but we don't see the R-wave scaffolding of mid winter -AOs. 

Stab at hypothesis ... this is -AO mapped over a radiatively forced/seasonal warming.  Doesn't explain how or why these intense vertical foci of heights are there ... The -AO result may in fact be less wave-mechanically a negative AO, and more just a numerical emergence of another systemic phenomenon.  I guess it doesn't matter for the summer-lorn among us... stop the whipping!  But, the mid latitudes are not getting summer so long as this below set up...

And it's capped the entire world's N. Hemisphere, so overwhelming it's really effecting the pattern underneath at mid latitudes, everywhere...

(120 hour EPS mean; 00z June 1 c/o Pivotalweather)

image.png.d29d4c19e633dddef8767d11d9e1b28c.png

The negative anomalies that garland the planet along mid latitudes is what drives the cooler appeal.  This total compression causes this westerly/ambient velocities to be way, ..way stronger than normal for this time of year... while the total compression N-->S, suppresses hugely south ( that circumpolar continuous arrow) of climate.

I mean this is so bad, I almost want it to just go true climate event and do something super extraordinary.   But alas...we likely won't get to see that science awe moment; it'll only gobble 2 week of the summer.

This isn't the same as a cut of west Atlantic low... or ensemble-line BDs typical of NE ...while west of Albany basks in Pandorian utopia spring curse... This is some kind of whack planetary problem in scope and scale.  It's noteworthy for me.

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As a low grade concern, yet a smidge higher than base-line climate ( qualified enough ha),  we do have a flick our eyes to the side occasionally over the next several days, just to be sure.. 

Hurricane Agnes was forced through the Central American wall but it's remnants are being reactivated by the Euro.  The other models are doing so too...just not with this same proficiency we see below:

image.png.5326ff92bd619e9b87835444aef988fc.png

So long as that westerly limb -NAO is in place ( per the post above, D5). It is not impossible that this TC phoenix might be forces closer along the EC.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’re not getting a cool summer lol. Gonna HHH mid June on 

You said the same thing about April and May. Hope your tomatoes are holding up during this recent cold snap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...