Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Let me also remind y'all ... for the 1,034th time ... the NAM's 48 + range tends to NW bias with synoptic features. I mean that's part and parcel in why the NAM cannot be trusted overall, in this time range of present cycle ... because for other reasons aside, that one right there is a consummate correction. We don't seem to argue about that when all models are out to sea, and it is the lone model that has coastal clipping the area at 78 hours - go wonder.. .But, this run strikes me as almost meaningless due to that model's tenured bias, until such time as Euro/GFS blend ( and the GGEM's been very agreeable too - ), do the same. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: That's probably about right....gradient just north of me. Not even kidding. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: close to being ugly even here Nope, looks like a decent front end thump for you with some crust on the top; this time of year we take! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM is like 3” of snow here followed by a sandblasting of sleet. I’d sign for that. I’ve been consistent over the years in wanting to experience prolonged sleet I do like sleet after a few inches of snow myself. Whiten everything up and then solidify the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: Nope, looks like a decent front end thump for you with some crust on the top; this time of year we take! another shift north we done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Nope, looks like a decent front end thump for you with some crust on the top; this time of year we take! Aren't you in FL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Christ ..hahaha... over a 72+ hour NAM, where/whence synoptic precision - no less... - is the requirement? You guys are eye-shifting around like Gollum slithers between the lichen covered rocks of middle-modeled earth seeking the precious paranoia It sniffs warm layers out better than folks sniffing undies 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m guessing I’ll get more snow this go around… just my opinion And you could be right, I'm commenting on the model run in itself because that's what we do here, And it was similar to the 04 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, IowaStorm05 said: Now I'm gettin excited and its kind of too soon still. Excited on 2" of snow and sleet fest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It sniffs warm layers out better than folks sniffing undies It does ... but this system has some unique synoptic aspects that off-set .. .The NAM's NW bias is competing and it's re-orienting the flow away from other guidance' that are proven superior at this range, just so it can sniff - mm ... red flag. In other words, it seems likely - to me - that it is wrong in the first place, so the warm tongues won't be there anyway - I haven't actually seen the run, just sayn'. That said, even in these solutions, it's still an impacting winter storm - ...it's hyper focusing either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Excited on 2" of snow and sleet fest? Actually I wouldn’t mind that much. It would be interesting. But in all the years of my living I’ve never seen a “sleet fest” before. And I just changed my moms headlights from “Sylvania Basic 9005” to “Sylvania Silverstar 9005”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Tossed, not in line with the other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, IowaStorm05 said: Actually I wouldn’t mind that much. It would be interesting. But in all the years of my living I’ve never seen a “sleet fest” before. And I just changed my moms headlights from “Sylvania Basic 9005” to “Sylvania Silverstar 9005”. I hope those are the powerful LED lights that blind me from behind through the rearview mirror. I like obnoxiously bright headlights. 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t recall a swfe event for wct that had more than a glaze of zr. I agree, but this one gets scooted east and light rain continues for several hours so I guess more glazing than usual is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Why must you weenies post the Kuchera? What is it about it? Do you get aroused when posting it? Like sleeping with 1995 Carmen Electra? Christ. Stop with that shit. The Kuchera is more useful than 10:1 in for areas in the battle zone in mixing events it’s generally been less than 10:1 for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: I hope those are the powerful LED lights that blind me from behind through the rearview mirror. I like obnoxiously bright headlights. Hopefully you have an auto-dimming rear view mirror that, like mine, does not dim. It makes things all the more fun when you have someone with their LED high-beams on behind you for ten miles. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Is the 06z Euro out yet? The placement of the secondary low is key in figuring where the sleet is going to pelt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, George001 said: Tossed, not in line with the other guidance. I’d wait for the rest of the 12z suite before that declaration 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’d wait for the rest of the 12z suite before that declaration Yeah the NAM could be right with the further north vort track...if it is, then other guidance will start bringing the sleet further north. But if it's wrong on the vort, it will be wrong on the thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It does ... but this system has some unique synoptic aspects that off-set .. .The NAM's NW bias is competing and it's re-orienting the flow away from other guidance' that are proven superior at this range, just so it can sniff - mm ... red flag. In other words, it seems likely - to me - that it is wrong in the first place, so the warm tongues won't be there anyway - I haven't actually seen the run, just sayn'. That said, even in these solutions, it's still an impacting winter storm - ...it's hyper focusing either way. Yea, not bad 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I agree, but this one gets scooted east and light rain continues for several hours so I guess more glazing than usual is possible. I can see that, true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Aren't you in FL? Yeah dude, but sunny and 80 gets boring after 6 months in a row. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 People be like desperate, well not exactly desperate but begging for some action. I'm 80F down here at 10am., got to love Floridah, yes "dah" might have to move. Sell the property for maybe 700k, start over to an area conducive to season changes. People here are crazy! Only if my health was better. Spring is Springing unfortunately have had several killing hard freezes. The sensitive semi-tropical plants took a major hit. Another model hugging clusterfk, more things change the more they stay the same. It's trackable. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Looks like a high end SWFE/low end Miller B. Position and strength of surface high is pretty classic for a Miller B, but the shortwave and jet are much further north than the classic setup. Result is a prolonged easterly surface fetch off the Atlantic but with very cold temps mixing down from 850 - areas in eastern new england that stay snow will easily see a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: People be like desperate, well not exactly desperate but begging for some action. I'm 80F down here at 10am., got to love Floridah, yes "dah" might have to move. Sell the property for maybe 700k, start over to an area conducive to season changes. People here are crazy! Only if my health was better. Spring is Springing unfortunately have had several killing hard freezes. The sensitive semi-tropical plants took a major hit. Another model hugging clusterfk, more things change the more they stay the same. It's trackable. Wish you could make your way back up here, Don. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kutchera maps can be useful in deformation bands, but that's about it. How about your Narcan you tout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's probably about right....gradient just north of me. Not even kidding. And just south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: How about your Narcan you tout? He posted it above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 59 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: another shift north we done Are you seriously talking about the NAM and saying that??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, UnitedWx said: Are you seriously talking about the NAM and saying that??? A lot of people lost in the sauce this morning over a NAM run that was still a significant winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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