RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’s a nice look on 12z GFS…we take Soundings are meh verbatim but we can dissect that once we're inside 48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was like that in March 2018....took me a good year or so to start b*tching again. Actually, I lied...I did some bitching the next day when BOX tossed my 31" total. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Banned. As I mentioned in the other post; you can see what I mean on the snow maps for the gfs. The little regeneration and lingering snow late bumps from like you down to like Foxboro over a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: As I mentioned in the other post; you can see what I mean on the snow maps for the gfs. The little regeneration and lingering snow late bumps from like you down to like Foxboro over a foot. Yea, there is a shot for the transfer coupled with the easterly fetch to do that, but I wasn't going there on Sunday, when I issued that first map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why do you broach that issue with me like every day? lol Its pretty robust, I get it....I don't rip and read it. Its the best algorithm for determining precip type, but its still just a tool. Also, its only as good as the data that the model is spitting out, so if the modeled QPF is overdone, so will its snow output. I'll still sell widespread amounts over a foot. Just for clarification purposes. You said Kuchera was good for banding what is Narcan best at. You posted NAM can you post the globals as well? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: As I mentioned in the other post; you can see what I mean on the snow maps for the gfs. The little regeneration and lingering snow late bumps from like you down to like Foxboro over a foot. Snow maps are overdone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's pretty legit on GFS. low 30s to low 20s in less than an hour. meh.. has to be right as the sun is setting with the massive last February sun angle scorching everything.. unless its like 40 to 20 in 30 min 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Just for clarification purposes. You said Kuchera was good for banding what is Narcan best at. You posted NAM can you post the globals as well? NARCAN is good with thermals away from the immediate coast, and banding....it can be too stingy near the ocean. If it is still that robust come Thursday, I will def consider it more strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: meh.. has to be right as the sun is setting with the massive last February sun angle scorching everything.. unless its like 40 to 20 in 30 min It was around dusk here. I mean it would freeze stuff up quick here because that’s basically the cstl front coming through after getting into low 30s with what probably will be some slushy mess too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Snow maps are overdone. Possibly. I’ll be honest with you though. As long as the morning is crappy enough to get me a day off, I could care less what happens after that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Possibly. I’ll be honest with you though. As long as the morning is crappy enough to get me a day off, I could care less what happens after that Yea, we need KBOS to get smoked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Snow maps are overdone. ? Isn't the graphic and sounding showing light snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: It was around dusk here. I mean it would freeze stuff up quick here because that’s basically the cstl front coming through after getting into low 30s with what probably will be some slushy mess too. ya just looked that's extremely impressive for you guys. here it's more gradual but would still turn everything to concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I await Scooter coming to my house and throwing me off Mt Wachusett Nah, you guys have been in a hole. Scooter has love for all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Very nice looking bent back WF in the mid-levels on these runs. That is indicative of a very strong thump. Same sig as 2/5/14....that's how you can manage 10-12" of dense snow from these. You want to be just north of that mid-level WF where it's slowing down to prolong the enhancement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: NARCAN is good with thermals away from the immediate coast, and banding....it can be too stingy near the ocean. If it is still that robust come Thursday, I will def consider it more strongly. Caveat being that big deform bands are poorly modeled, so even the NARCAN maps will not fully capture it....again, only as good as the model output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: ya just looked that's extremely impressive for you guys. here it's more gradual but would still turn everything to concrete. Yeah you guys inland probably have it more gradual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Snow maps are overdone. I don’t really know how to read those super well but it looks like to my untrained eye that everything is below freezing. I’m not so sure it is overdone, that reach around signal is on all guidance. Features like that wouldnt the mesoscale models be able to pick up on better? If anything, I would think it’s being underdone by the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Possibly. I’ll be honest with you though. As long as the morning is crappy enough to get me a day off, I could care less what happens after that Oh yea. Not arguing against that. I'm not going anywhere Friday. I'm only debating the big clown map totals which are counting the backend reach around as some high ratio fluff bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Isn't the graphic and sounding showing light snow? Yea but the clown maps are adding several inches when it's probably just weenie feel good light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Yikes 1 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Very nice looking bent back WF in the mid-levels on these runs. That is indicative of a very strong thump. Same sig as 2/5/14....that's how you can manage 10-12" of dense snow from these. You want to be just north of that mid-level WF where it's slowing down to prolong the enhancement. Yeah big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yikes NGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: NGW Yea, sell for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yikes Holy shit that gives even Ant 8 inches. That’s more aggressive than even my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, we need KBOS to get smoked. 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yikes That’ll do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 It does appear to mix in BOS on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah big time. Yeah I remember being initially skeptical of 12"+ amounts in 2/5/14 but we were discussing the bent back WF and how it was just going nuts on the north side of it...and then it verified that morning. We were getting like 2-3" per hour rates even with snow growth not that great. Like a quasi-stationary band near the pike in that and maybe 10-20 miles either side. The QPF was big....BOS and ORH ASOS both had over an inch of QPF in that. Not saying we can lock that in yet on this one, but if the model guidance doesn't change significantly, then it's going to happen somewhere in a 20-30 mile wide zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said: It does appear to mix in BOS on the 12z GFS. No mix there but the growth sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 The 12z RGEM looks like a good ole plastering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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