Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

As it should be

King James ftw

[weathafella]

Any RGEM before I have to concentrate on a 4pm work call?

[wx2fish]

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I still have a question regarding the 10:1 ratio. Wouldn't this be more like 15:1 with the temperatures? In essence it would bring the numbers up a little more with the accumulations

They'll be better than 10:1 but I'm not sure we'll crazy ratios given the wind. Maybe under a mid-level band inland. Purely a guess, but I was thinking 12-14:1 on average. Soundings are good though, so well see. 

[radarman]

55 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Random thought this afternoon... but I think Long Island could be the jackpot here. 

 

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've noticed that on the lot of the short term guidance, that massive QPF bomb has been creeping north slowly so that we're seeing it over LI....I'm wondering if that just ends up creeping NNE across the sound into SE CT.

fronto from the initial surge looks great for the CT coast on both nam runs.   Should be nice floor on the event even if the slp manifestations don't work out favorably for some.  If somebody should get hit with both that'd be a sneaky jackpot candidate.  I like the LI idea, though I might take another darkhorse with Newport RI.

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I still have a question regarding the 10:1 ratio. Wouldn't this be more like 15:1 with the temperatures? In essence it would bring the numbers up a little more with the accumulations

 

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

They'll be better than 10:1 but I'm not sure we'll crazy ratios given the wind. Maybe under a mid-level band inland. Purely a guess, but I was thinking 12-14:1 on average

I think this is the correct take. Take the climo average during this event because of the wind. But under the band will probably be able to push 15:1 still. But ratios rely on so much more than temp alone that I really don't factor them in at all other than is the lift collocated with the ideal temps.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Any RGEM before I have to concentrate on a 4pm work call?

An elongated flaccid POS.

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Any RGEM before I have to concentrate on a 4pm work call?

I took a peak. Didn't look much better to me

[PhineasC]

Both NAMs improved up here. 

[eyewall]

Reed Trimmer is going to Sandwich. I considered flying up but work says otherwise.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Reed Trimmer is going to Sandwich. I considered flying up but work says otherwise.

Maybe I'll see him

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Did you put numbers out for region ? Maybe I missed it today?

14 to 30  Ct River east to AEMATT 

[radarman]

Just now, eyewall said:

Reed Trimmer is going to Sandwich. I considered flying up but work says otherwise.

Stop at Treehouse before driving his modified Panther out toward the BM?

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

An elongated flaccid POS.

it's been very underwhelming. doesn't mean it's wrong but has a tendency to pee in the cheerios

[bristolri_wx]

29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You can pick out the veterans here easily. Not mentally exhausted, don't freak out every 6 hours.

Thank you for your service. 

[NptWx]

14 minutes ago, radarman said:

 

fronto from the initial surge looks great for the CT coast on both nam runs.   Should be nice floor on the event even if the slp manifestations don't work out favorably for some.  If somebody should get hit with both that'd be a sneaky jackpot candidate.  I like the LI idea, though I might take another darkhorse with Newport RI.

 

[JC-CT]

20 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I still have a question regarding the 10:1 ratio. Wouldn't this be more like 15:1 with the temperatures? In essence it would bring the numbers up a little more with the accumulations

There's probably not much usefulness in looking at/posting 10:1 maps right now - except for the outer cape, ptype shouldn't be an issue so might as well just post the qpf accumulations. 10:1 snow maps can be a useful guide for "qpf falling as snow" in situations where that matters, although tons of caveats with that obviously.

[cut]

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Tough forecast!

If the first low comes a little closer the south coast is going to get hammered.

The amount of precip just south of LI is incredible.

 

Seriously - it's like 75 miles - which is like an ant fart in the scheme of things.

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Everyone says the wind will hurt ratios.

We need an interactive model where we can input our own ratios.

Hrrr and Rap have model ratios 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Thank you for your service. 

what would we do without someone chiming in every 30 minutes to tell us we are dumb...

[Heisy]

Driving through Providence now, about 45 to Braintree MA. Can we squeeze 2 feet? Should be close. Think 15 to 20 sounds reasonable 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You can pick out the veterans here easily. Not mentally exhausted, don't freak out every 6 hours.

I don't remember if it was this forum or NYC, but there used to be model comparisons at initialization through the current valid time, some posters used to actually look at water vapor loops and satellite and try to judge which model seemed to be most correct at an early frame.  That was about 10 years ago, but it gave confidence that one model may have a better handle than others just based on initialization and 3 and 6 hour forecasts vs actual conditions.

[tiger_deF]

HRRR for +1 at 14z vs HRRR for +1 now at 20z

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

14 to 30  Ct River east to AEMATT 

About what I have too

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Thank you for your service. 

Never implied that was me 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

what would we do without someone chiming in every 30 minutes to tell us we are dumb...

You cray, get some sleep

[George001]

Interesting, the low is now down to 1006mb, 2mb deeper than the 18z nam had at this time (had the low down to 1008mb). The low is also less elongated.

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hrrr and Rap have model ratios 

Those are based on soundings though aren't they?  They can't take in the impact of wind.

[wxsniss]

HREF 12z fwiw (sorry if posted earlier), looks almost identical to NWS map

Like a trail print of a dumbbelling low

[ORH_wxman]

RAP has been improving since 18z....hopefully its onto something.....HRRR has been getting worse.

 

Glad there's good short term model agreement on the trends.

[wkd]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not buying this solution either...

Continuity blows harder than the winds being modeled - 

At this point I'm resolute to rely on now cast.  Stay the present course on current snow and wind coverage, and adjust down(up) accordingly.

I realize television talent and back-office officials don't have that luxury when it comes to advising the public, but get creative with the language - some times ya gotta do your job.  Heh.

Something like, "I apologize that I cannot confirm the higher end of the snow fall potential at this time, but the potential is still there. Pleas check in regularly as we will be updating this to keep you informed, as the storm's impacts become more clear..."

sumpin' like ghat -

Nice. A post from Tip in plain english that doesn't make my head hurt.