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Major Hurricane Ida


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Just now, WinterWolf said:

This is gonna make Katrina look like little league I fear.  This is a complete monstrosity…and strengthening as it’s making landfall as quite possibly the strongest ever on top of it.  Holy smokes what a storm. 

Katrina was also *BAD* for reasons well outside of just the “hurricane being intense.”

Katrina will always been in a league of its own. I suppose it’s conceivable that some day it gets beat, as all records are meant to be broken, but don’t think this is the angle of approach to do it for NOLA. LIKEWISE, some of these smaller towns east of the eye could be wiped off the map… sadly.

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Katrina was also *BAD* for reasons well outside of just the “hurricane being intense.”

Katrina will always been in a league of its own. I suppose it’s conceivable that some day it gets beat, as all records are meant to be broken, but don’t think this is the angle of approach to do it for NOLA. LIKEWISE, some of these smaller towns east of the eye could be wiped off the map… sadly.

Of course…but this is gonna be SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER which wherever that NE Quadrant comes in will just scour what towns are there…this is gonna be worse.   

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2 minutes ago, BretWx said:

I hope he set this feed up and LEFT. This is not survivable. 

I'll take this to banter if need be, but we have seen that these chasers aren't always the smartest people. There was one dude who literally almost died in Mexico Beach during Michael.

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I was expecting stronger when I got up this morning, but this is definitely over my guess. We need an EWRC and fast. Main hurricane levees are at risk at this level. Any more strengthening will not help in that regard.
They said "little to no storm surge flooding expected" and that forecast was based on rapid intensification.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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34 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

I was expecting stronger when I got up this morning, but this is definitely over my guess. We need an EWRC and fast. Main hurricane levees are at risk at this level. Any more strengthening will not help in that regard.

Need to hope it comes on shore at low tide.

 

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SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 89.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Of course…but this is gonna be SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER which wherever that NE Quadrant comes in will just scour what towns are there…this is gonna be worse.   

Every storm in this rarified air is different. Katrina's surge will be hard to beat due to its gaping maw and cat 5 intensity well before landfall, which allowed a significant swell and surge to build before it made landfall (it weakened only very shortly before landfall). Ida has had less time, even though it will be stronger in terms of max wind. I suspect the wind damage will be the standout with this one -- though the surge on any cat4/cat5 is no slouch either.

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Maybe a bit of a westward jog last 30 minutes? I think NOLA proper dodges the brunt of the eyewall at this point. Maybe western sides of town get scraped by it. They need every westward wobble they can get though. 

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1 minute ago, mempho said:

They said "little to no storm surge flooding expected" and that forecast was based on rapid intensification.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

Yes, it was. Around 105-115 max intensity. We're going to clear that in terms of max w and radii, which will have an impact on those initial numbers. The levees will likely hold, which is why I said "risk". Additional strengthening will not help though and the increase in risk is not linear.

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1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Every storm in this rarified air is different. Katrina's surge will be hard to beat due to its gaping maw and cat 5 intensity well before landfall, which allowed a significant swell and surge to build before it made landfall (it weakened only very shortly before landfall). Ida has had less time, even though it will be stronger in terms of max wind. I suspect the wind damage will be the standout with this one -- though the surge on any cat4/cat5 is no slouch either.

Yeah, you're probably talking about a surge approaching 20 ft at the mouth of the Mississippi here as opposed to 28 ft observed in Katrina in Mississippi. 

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3 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Maybe a bit of a westward jog last 30 minutes? I think NOLA proper dodges the brunt of the eyewall at this point. Maybe western sides of town get scraped by it. They need every westward wobble they can get though. 

I was thinking the same, more WNW.

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Hurricane Ida has TS wind field nearly 450 miles in diameter, hurricane force wind field is nearly 150 miles in diameter. That is going to scour a lot of territory.

 

Wind Radii Estimates
(based on Knaff et al. 2016)

(naut.mi.)R34R50R64

NE195.0 110.0 70.0 

SE180.0 100.0 60.0 

SW135.0 80.0 35.0 

NW185.0 105.0 60.0 

Parameters Used

RMW derived from ADT

TC current intensity from ADT = 129.6 (kts)

TC forward speed from Forecast Interpolation = 10.3 (kts)

TC heading from Forecast Interpolation = 317.2 (deg)

Historical listing of wind radii values

Timeline plots of Wind Radii : 34kt   50kt   64kt

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4 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

138kt FL wind, 129kt SFMR. Not quite enough yet to push us into Cat 5 territory

I think Ida may finally be leveling off. Albeit still in warm waters, the OHC near shore is not nearly as impressive as it was in hours ago and absolutely exploded. Regardless, this is going to be catastrophic. 

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

I think Ida may finally be leveling off. Albeit still in warm waters, the OHC near shore is not nearly as impressive as it was in hours ago and absolutely exploded. Regardless, this is going to be catastrophic. 

The eye continues to warm and the pressure continues to fall. It’s not leveling out yet.

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