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WhiteoutWX

Meteorologist
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  1. Been mostly sleet here in the south okc metro. Roads are completely covered white.
  2. I expect sleet to be the main ptype for most of central Oklahoma. Thickness values are lower today than they were yesterday when we saw a lot of sleet. Though the convective influence will be less today so that may offset a bit. Either way, based on current radar I doubt any areas in central Oklahoma will get more than 0.25” qpf. The heavy precip sheild is mostly skirting through southern Oklahoma.
  3. I'd say there may be a swath a couple counties wide stretching from SE OKC metro on ENE that may overlap with the cold air enough to meet the Ice Storm Warning threshold today, definitely if you include forecast amounts for tomorrow. But it is probably better to have separate headlines given the two events will be separated by nearly 24 hours. I think if the models had done a better job today in anticipating frontal positioning and precipitation amounts you would have seen the ice storm warnings in that narrow path I mentioned. But everyone has been playing catch up to this event. It might not be worth putting one out now given it will be ending by early this evening in most areas.
  4. Been a fascinating forecast the past 24 hours. Models have been playing catch up to the frontal position the whole time (per usual) but this event has been impressive in that even the usually better performing high res guidance have been busting pretty badly with the frontal position even at a couple hour lead times. It now looks like a potentially more impactful ice event across northern and even central Oklahoma than it looked just 12 hours ago as the front sneaks south behind the departing precipitation today and now the next wave tomorrow is looking a bit more robust and needs to be watched closely.
  5. I would say the upcoming pattern on the surface looks much improved, with a deep trough in the West and ridging along the east coast. I’m worried though that these trough aren’t digging into the central US but instead are burying themselves along the west coast then weakening as they lift northeast. That pattern has the potential to leave the southern plains with quick shots at precip but nothing substantial in terms of drought busting precip. I’ll take the advertised upcoming pattern over the endless dry NW flow we have been stuck in for the past 3 months, but I’m hesitant to get too excited just yet about the prospects of widespread heavier precipitation, much less a widespread winter event. I wish I had something more optimistic to say but this winter just hasn’t wanted to cooperate on the whole!
  6. 2 days later and like clockwork the models have dampened out the southern wave in favor of a more dominant northern stream. This winter has been very easy to forecast.
  7. I’ll start paying closer attention if it is still on the models in 2 days. We’ve seen many a storm get dampened out on the models in the 6-10 day range this year. It’s been impossible getting it inside 5 days. So that’s my signal it may be legit if it can make it to day 5. For an example of how this goes wrong, look at the 00z GFS, or today’s 12z Euro. Northern stream crushes the southern wave, which has also been the theme this year with a Niña driven dominant northern stream. I’m just hoping for some precip of any kind at this point.
  8. Can we start a drought contest lol? Guess the next widespread 0.25”+ event. This pattern is getting ridiculous.
  9. While the model forecasts may technically be showing a flip to -AO in the longer range, they're also showing a very strong and in-tact vortex over Canada, which does not bode well for extended cold at lower latitudes.
  10. +AO argues for glancing blows at these latitudes, but we'll see.
  11. Until we get the mean trough axis over the Rockies and not over the Mississippi nothing will change. Northwest flow is DRY for the plains in almost any month, but especially in the winter. Until that changes expect no significant precipitation over the majority of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas. People looking at specific model runs showing precip here and there are ignoring the overall pattern which indeed has not changed since the beginning of November. Which is why basically every storm shown 8+ days out has disappeared or shifted east or south as it gets closer in time.
  12. There hasn't been a single major storm system since October for the majority of the southern plains. Long range pattern generally more of the same...storm systems amplifying to the east or northeast. Just give me one system ejecting out of the southwest...we've got drought conditions exploding across Oklahoma and Texas. We need precipitation badly.
  13. Jan 4th Coastal Obs/Disc

    That’s just the latest surface ob out of cape hatteras so it should be legit. Spc mesoanalysis uses some model blends for their graphics, if that’s what you’re referring to. just checked spc page, their surface obs and pressure contour map seem to agree with the 995, where is this 984 coming from?
  14. Jan 4th Coastal Obs/Disc

    It’s 995.1 you have to add a 9 to the front and the last digit is the decimal.
  15. Jan 3-4th Coastal Crusher OBS

    We’ve got half an eyewall on Morehead City radar lol. What a fascinating system
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