Ok since I’m one of the people that called “bust” yesterday at 5 pm, here’s why I said it and why I still stand by it. First off, obviously I would never EVER put that out there as a meteorologist on social media. That would be irresponsible and lead people to let their guard down early, in the same way that it is irresponsible when people go on social media and scream the sky is falling. But this isn’t social media and the people on this forum, at least in my opinion, should be able to handle scientific debate and know the difference.
Second, when I said “bust” I didn’t just throw that out there with no reasoning. I was using scientific reasoning and solid meteorological analysis. The cap was clearly holding and it became evident that the storms many of the models were suggesting would fire in southern Oklahoma simply weren’t going to materialize. The reason the high risk was extended eastward into the OKC metro was exactly for that reason. When it became clear it wasn’t going to happen I don’t see what is wrong with calling it as it is unfolding. Again, when backed up by solid reasoning supported by the evidence I just don’t see what is wrong with what is essentially putting out a FORECAST on a forecasting forum. People can debate the semantics on if using the word “bust” is the right term or right way to say it, but I don’t see the big deal using it to describe when a forecast isn’t going as planned, which was all what I was trying to convey.
Third, I noticed a lot of confusion over what constitutes risk areas yesterday. SPC has very rigid and very clear definition of how they verify their risks on their website. Yesterday’s high risk was strictly driven by tornado probabilities, not some combination of hail, wind, and tornadoes. Their high risk was only going to verify with a large number of tornado reports. The strength of the tornadoes or how much damage is completely irrelevant (for better or worse) in how these things are scored. We needed a large number of supercells yesterday to get it done, and it became clear early on we weren’t gonna get that, at least across the eastern half of the risk area.