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  1. Good moisture barely overlaps with the favorable shear profiles. Net result is a run of the mill late April slight risk worthy event. It will be unbelievably bad luck if we make it through this entire week without a single decent event given the number of potential days and quality of moisture waiting in the gulf. Ultimately I think the same problem we have been having will be the culprit again...too many waves spaced too close together. Moisture just hasn't been able to recover into the plains in front of a quality trough.
  2. It was just as bad or worse. Warm front barely makes it back to Red River by Friday evening.
  3. Well Friday's threat went south quickly last night. Anyone with better Euro access care to comment? The crappy maps I'm seeing make it look like the warm front barely makes it to the Red River by Friday evening.
  4. GFS looks good for Friday but it can't really afford to be much slower with the trough. Mid level flow is a somewhat late arrival as is and any slower with the wave and upper level support for convection may be too weak to overcome the cap.
  5. 12z GFS and 00z Euro now both showing Thursday/Saturday threat contained to southern/eastern OK or Arkansas. GFS drives a front into central Texas Wednesday and never quite fully recovers into OK by Thursday afternoon. The surface low is more of a surface trough extending across OK instead of a nice closed surface feature which is kind of what we just dealt with yesterday.
  6. Looking at 500 mb the 12z Euro and GFS are almost identical at 96 HR. The Euro is maybe a bit further north than the GFS but very close.
  7. GFS and Euro continue to have large differences in trough placement/orientation for this Friday which has a large impact on surface low and frontal features. SPC has southern half of OK and north Texas outlooked but mentions the model uncertainty. Which model caves first?
  8. I've been following the GFS AAM forecasts the past few weeks. It's consistently been showing a move towards Phase 1/2 space in longer ranges but so far that has yet to materialize. It is encouraging to see the GEFS/EPS in agreement for the time frame you mentioned though. Maybe this time the threat will have legs.
  9. That was an exceptional case. For every one of those that produce on a marginal day there's 10 more that don't. I'll gladly eat my words if I'm wrong though.
  10. We'll see the degree of backing we achieve. Looks like due south now just ahead of the dryline so it's a good start. I'm still not super enthusiastic though.
  11. Currently winds are out of the SW in northwest OK and the TX panhandle. Doesn't exactly get me enthused about tornado potential
  12. GFS says Wednesday may have some potential as well. It is further south than the Euro though for the entirety of the middle to end of next week.
  13. Definitely nothing that screams outbreak in the next 7-10 days, but the GFS is at least offering some possible smaller scale setups in the southern Plains in that timeframe. Looks like Saturday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday all have at least some potential in the TX-OK-KS corridor. Upper flow is lacking, especially Saturday and Monday, but there may be *just* enough mid level flow coupled with good moisture and low level shear for at least a conditional tornado risk any one of those days. One other caveat is capping may be a concern with no clearly defined waves at the moment to help provide background ascent, but maybe some subtle shortwaves will appear that could help with that as we get closer.
  14. Really beautiful left mover heading through northwest Georgia too.
  15. Cell west of ATL obviously hit the wedge and died. But the cell to the east of Birmingham is looking healthy at the moment, and it's basically on the nose of the better environment pushing northeast out of central Alabama so it probably has a better chance of sustaining itself.