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  1. 12z GFS said hold my beer. The signal seems pretty consistent for a big storm around Christmas at least. But models heading in wrong direction for snow prospects.
  2. Yes while the H5 maps looks warm with ridging, the temperature anomalies along the east coast aren’t torch worthy. The pattern as progged seems to leave the door open for messy mixed bag storms, but not an all out torch.
  3. Models have been flipping around in the long range. I wouldn’t put much stock in any one run or it’s ensembles. 6z GFS looked meh, but 0z looked good overall to me. I’d just focus on the next week to 10 days and let the Christmas week pattern shake itself out.
  4. NWS offices have been behind the ball from the get-go playing catchup with the model trends, from deep south Texas to the southeast and on northeastward. A remarkable storm.
  5. Finally feels a bit like December out there. Bottom line for anyone looking for real snow: it’s not gonna happen in this pattern. It’s not amplified enough for northern stream systems to make it south of us, and the trough axis is too far east for pretty much anyone west of the Mississippi River if a system were to amplify. The GFS/Euro and their ensembles have been hinting at more troughing to our west in the longer range, but they also suggest a general deamplification of the trough to our east, meaning any systems coming out of the west may draw too much warm air ahead of them. All of this is long range speculation and subject to change, but so far nothing I’ve seen on the models screams favorable snow pattern for this part of the country.
  6. Those temperature anomalies would be quite the reversal of what the models are showing for the first half of December for large parts of the country.
  7. Operational Euro looked like it was trying to breakdown the North Pacific pattern toward the end of the run, which is in contrast to the GFS/GEFS/EPS. Has a lot more troughing over Alaska and a much weaker west coast ridge than the other models.
  8. These type of large sprawling troughs rarely work out, shortwaves often have trouble amplifying. 12z was probably the best case scenario, and everything had to be timed just perfectly for that to have any chance. Still could shift back but I’d say 9 times out of ten these setups end up as cold and dry with any low pressure being weak and well offshore.
  9. Probably the best GFS run I’ve seen for this part of the country. Keeps the trough more towards the center of the country, retrogrades to our west by the end of the run with continued ridging into Alaska/western Canada to continue funneling cold air. Models have been bouncing around a lot with the post 7 day period so we will see if it lasts...
  10. The blocking ridge is so far out into the Atlantic on this run I'm not sure it officially qualifies as NAO domain space, but the western ridge is consistent enough to keep a deep trough over the east basically the entire run.
  11. It’s good to see that multiple different looks end up at the same general point by day 10. Leaves a large margin for error in getting a trough into the east. As long as that blocking holds in the NA, and ridging is present along the west coast, it’s hard not to be optimistic about potential snow prospects.
  12. While they both agree with a trough in the east by day 10, how they get there is worlds apart. Euro has been hanging a lot of energy back in the SW, and has been flipping back and forth run to run with trying to bury a cutoff low there underneath the ridge.
  13. I don’t know if there is anything I would change about the GEFS from day 10 onward. Just a great look all around.
  14. OP run definitely caught my attention towards the end of the run as well with all the blocking, some semblance of split flow out west, and cold dumping into the central/eastern US. Even if it is jumping on the pattern progression too quickly I don’t think many here would complain if it holds off until made to late December. Just in time for the holidays. Overall the modeled pattern looks pretty good after a brief relaxation.
  15. I think it’s safe to say the models are struggling badly with the upcoming blocking pattern. Huge differences run to run, even as close in as day 4/5. Expect many more changes to come. But man that 12z GFS is nice to look at!