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  1. This thing clearly has not made a turn north yet. Good news for New Orleans.
  2. Maybe a bit of a westward jog last 30 minutes? I think NOLA proper dodges the brunt of the eyewall at this point. Maybe western sides of town get scraped by it. They need every westward wobble they can get though.
  3. This system has been on the right side of the short term guidance envelope for days. I’m not super surprised.
  4. I don’t remember how models did with Rita but they’ve been tightly clustered on a landfall location with this one the last day or so. I think track confidence is fairly high at this point. Margin for error is still probably big enough for New Orleans to miss out on the worst of it, but still seems prudent in this case to give people more time to evacuate than wait for a last second scramble when it’s too late, especially given the potential for a major upon landfall.
  5. Biggest limiting factor for a high end cane right now is mainly the time over the gulf. Most models are only showing about a 36 hour window now between exiting Cuba and landfall in Louisiana. The more eastern solution has also led to a faster solution.
  6. I would think with a developing system this type of lopsided appearance would bias the storm track slightly to the east as convection continually fires on the eastern semicircle and pulls the low level center that direction.
  7. The Euro appeared to end up further north and east because it consolidated energy along the northern end of the wave axis while GFS focuses development further south. The overall 500mb synoptic pattern looks very similar between both models. I think we’ll continue to see windshield wiping on the models until we get a more concrete surface center (no surprise).
  8. I foresee several consecutive marginal/slight risk severe days over the next week but I think clearly heavy rain/flooding seems to be the bigger story. With a closed low the shear profiles are likely to be junky and less than ideal. Mesoscale enhancements due to boundaries from previous convection may lead to a surprise tornado day in there, but overall still looks relatively unexciting as far as a large synoptic scale tornado setup.
  9. And then moisture gets shunted south and we wait another week or more
  10. Man I forgot how awesome that Dodge City storm was. It was just tornado after tornado is mostly wide open fields with a decent road network. I don't think I'll ever top that one.
  11. The 850 flow is pretty much nil across NW Texas today I would be surprised if we see any tornadoes there today. I would play south and hope for some Del Rio magic.
  12. Could do without the hysterical screeching
  13. We haven’t even hit May yet. Still plenty of season left.
  14. The slower/deeper progression has really evolved this towards more of a run of the mill type severe event in my opinion. The flow becomes more meridional which is not only causing much messier hodographs but is also leading to weaker lapse rates (hence the lack of instability on some of the models). The end result is likely to be messier storm modes. The “classic” dry line/tornadic supercell look the Euro was advertising from before really hasn’t been there for a few days now. The flooding threat may end up the bigger story out of this.
  15. Just focusing on central Oklahoma the 00z NAM/HRRR and 21z RAP were very nice and have all come in with higher snow totals and a longer duration, lingering light snow well into Wednesday afternoon. Again it will likely come down to a narrow band where snow totals end up being close to double areas to the north and south.
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