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  1. I think someone between Abilene and Ft. Worth has a decent shot of some accumulating, heavy wet snow Thursday late afternoon into Friday morning. Exactly where is highly uncertain and it’s likely to be a small area with the right overlap of heavy rates and cold mid and upper level temps on the west/northwest side of the upper low. I think most of Oklahoma will be too far north for this one (again!), but ULLs are notoriously tricky to forecast so don’t be surprised if there are some last minute adjustments. One thing that looks clear and will be widespread will be the WINDS on the backside of this thing. Widespread 50-60mph wind gusts look likely west of I35 in OK and Texas.
  2. WhiteoutWX

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    2nd highest single day December total on record for the airport.
  3. Let’s be clear this wasn’t just the NAM busting. Up until 00z last night the Euro also had a significant winter storm. As much as everyone hypes up the Euro as being the best model it’s not invincible and is just as capable as he other models as flopping hard.
  4. The key to this whole storm working out for OK and surrounding areas now lies with a little shortwave that is forecast to drop into the northern plains and interact with our system. The models have trended stronger overnight with this shortwave and it has the affect of interfering with our storm and prevents it from wrapping up quickly like the models were showing yesterday. The result is a weaker storm that is further south and warmer. With such marginal thermal profiles you NEED this storm to wrap up quickly for those heavy snows on the backside. Otherwise there will be a lot of disappointed folks with some light rain wondering “where’s the snow?”. Will be interesting to see what the 12z models have in store, but I’d say overall the trends are pretty discouraging.
  5. GFS just playing catchup. Gets the overall look a little better this time but the QPF is too low on the backside of the low.
  6. This storm may have started out looking like an ice event days ago, but I think the true story will be heavy deformation snows on the backside of the system. NAM is painting quite the potent band, and while it's temperature are marginal verbatim, just looking at the synoptic features and applying conceptual models, it will be a heavy, wet pastejob of a snowstorm for someone over western OK, possibly extending into northern/central OK depending on the track. This would likely continue on east from there. I think the GFS is total trash at this point. NAM and Euro all the way. But JMHO...
  7. Really would depend on the track of the upper low. But usually more amped equals further north. Until the other models start showing it though I'm not quite biting yet.
  8. NAM hangs the energy back and is slower like the Euro. But it’s also more consolidated and amped with the upper energy. Closes off at 500mb and looks to have quite the backside snows. Really this is a much different storm depiction altogether than what was being shown yesterday and previously. Models were then showing mostly a warm air advection/overrunning scenario and open wave. This is a more consolidated storm. Long range NAM so beware but the Euro was also slower so this could be the start of a trend.
  9. GFS just seems unrealistic to me. However, the keys here are the surface wind direction, as well as keeping steady precipitation falling during the day. I think this may be what is contributing to the warmer solution on the Euro. It brings the precipitation in much later, starting Friday evening really. Without precipitation falling/wetbulbing processes...the marginally cold surface temps will be able to warm sufficiently during the day on Friday, regardless of wind direction. The NAM is really the perfect scenario if you want to lock in the surface cold layer.
  10. The NAM just locks in that surface cold layer and never relents with a lot of freezing rain and sleet across central OK. Looks like it wants to drop some heavy snow on top of that just after the end of the run too. Seen many times where the global models scour out the cold air too quickly in these types of events. Even though it is long range NAM, meteorologically speaking, there's no reason for the temps to warm at the surface like the GFS is showing if we keep a continued northerly surface wind and attendant cooler/drier air feed. The NAM just seems more realistic to me.
  11. Not really buying the GFS temps at the moment. But it comes down to how quickly the high to the north moves east. NAM keeps it more overhead and therefore keeps a more northerly component to the surface winds, and hence colder temps. GFS moves it out quicker and winds come around more easterly.
  12. Much warmer across Oklahoma too on the Euro. Went from being the coldest model to the warmest.
  13. I can't speak for the whole area but I can tell you that for Oklahoma City the period from 2015-2018 had the lowest three winter snow total on record there. It's been rough out there for snow lovers.
  14. WhiteoutWX

    Major Hurricane Michael

    That Brett Adair stream is straight up scary. Those guys look stuck right in the worst spot.
  15. WhiteoutWX

    Weak El Nino 2018-2019

    Yeah from a subsurface standpoint this is looking nothing like 2012. Subsurface warmth is increasing still. Looks more like 2006 to me.