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WhiteoutWX

Meteorologist
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  1. Pattern looks favorable for *some* type of winter system for the southern plains next weekend/early next week. That’s about all that can be said at this point. As everyone knows models have been abysmal this year in the day 5-7 range so expect tons of shifting around. Don’t hang your hopes on any one model run.
  2. WhiteoutWX

    GFS vs. FV3 GFS

    I’ve also felt over the last few months the FV3 has generally been less consistent and more jumpy run-to-run. Does anyone have verification scores or comparisons for the two models? I’d like to see some data to back up my somewhat subjective observations.
  3. WhiteoutWX

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    There is a lot of warm air advection at mid levels. There's no closed 850 mb low to keep temperatures colder; the precipitation is basically one prolonged warm air advection event until Sunday afternoon when 850 mb winds turn northerly. This seems like a case where models would be more likely to under-do this warm air than over-do. I'd be hedging lower on the snow totals, higher on the ice/sleet.
  4. It’s another complicated setup. I fully expect it to evolve further, but I’d say anyone in northeast OK, southeast KS and eastward has a shot for this to trend favorably.
  5. The showery and spotty nature to the precip with temps near freezing doesn’t have me enthused about accumulations for OKC area. Lull periods will allow for melting, if we can ever get the precip to flip to all snow in the first place. Back and forth precip types dependent on rates so far.
  6. Well 00z Euro actually bumped north from its 12z run, dumping a lot of snow in central OK. 6z GFS is now slightly north of 0z. Has the south trend stopped? Hard to say but man it is going to be close for the OKC metro.
  7. I'll believe the mesoscale models on things like temperatures and banding potential for winter storms. Believe the globals on things like synoptic details such as strength and track of the upper low, which is the key uncertainty here, not temperatures. People probably remember the NAM was the last model to jump ship with the December bust. GFS went first, then Euro, then the NAM. Right now GFS is doing a hard brake on this storm. Will see if other models also jump at 00z. My guess is NAM caves, but we'll see. As I said earlier, cutoff lows are infamous for surprises. What makes them so fun but also so frustrating to forecast!
  8. Latest GFS/FV3-GFS both coming in weaker and further south again. Barely get significant precip into OK. If that ends up being reality that will be 2 scores for the GFS this winter, as it led the way with the December bust and has consistently been on the weaker side of the guidance envelope with this system as well.
  9. Caution on using those freezing rain maps. All that is is the amount of precip that falls as rain with surface temps below freezing. It doesn’t take into account accretion efficiency or anything like that. Can easily cut those totals in half or more for what would actually accrete on trees except in the most perfect accretion conditions, which this will not be.
  10. Another important thing to watch will be freezing rain potential. Models were about 2-4 degrees too warm on highs today. That margin will be crucial heading into tomorrow and Thursday.
  11. Cutoff lows are notoriously tricky to forecast. This one is no exception. I've seen some crazy last minute changes with these types of systems, even within 24 hours, so it's possible we see some favorable last minute shift...but I agree that the overall trend today has been slower, further south, and warmer. Again that favors SW OK and parts of western north Texas that will be closest to the center of the upper low as it ejects, and therefore will have the best overlap of colder temps and best dynamics.
  12. Models are in pretty good agreement of a pretty stubborn warm nose at 850mb for most people north of I-40 and east of I-35 in Oklahoma. This looks like a southwest OK special to me, with OKC metro still close enough for some favorable shifts. Tulsa and on NE I'm skeptical they see substantial accumulations as the surface temps are warmer and mid-levels just take too long to cool. 12Z NAM shows a narrow deform band for NE OK/SW MO but the location of that will continue to shift around. IF that deform band can become a little better organized than shown then we could see more substantial accumulations along the I-44 corridor, but the temps are going to be razor thin and will require some heavy rates/dynamical cooling for this to happen. Definitely a low confidence forecast still.
  13. Euro absolutely crushes OKC-TUL corridor with narrow but heavy deform band.
  14. Well after the major bust with the last winter storm in early December I think most mets are taking an understandably more cautious approach this time.
  15. I think someone between Abilene and Ft. Worth has a decent shot of some accumulating, heavy wet snow Thursday late afternoon into Friday morning. Exactly where is highly uncertain and it’s likely to be a small area with the right overlap of heavy rates and cold mid and upper level temps on the west/northwest side of the upper low. I think most of Oklahoma will be too far north for this one (again!), but ULLs are notoriously tricky to forecast so don’t be surprised if there are some last minute adjustments. One thing that looks clear and will be widespread will be the WINDS on the backside of this thing. Widespread 50-60mph wind gusts look likely west of I35 in OK and Texas.
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