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WhiteoutWX

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  1. Repost from central forum: I'll be targeting Nebraska. My current thinking is chances for rain/clouds seem higher in eastern and southeastern parts of the state which is unfortunately where I was initially targeting (the closest drive from Oklahoma). I was hoping to stay south of I-80 but if morning clouds/rain look to be a problem I may target as far N/W as Grand Island. I have no reservations so if it looks really bad in Nebraska Sunday night/early Monday I may just bail altogether. I'm not going to deal with traffic nightmare/longer drive if I would have to go through KC area or further east.
  2. I'll be targeting Nebraska. My current thinking is chances for rain/clouds seem higher in eastern and southeastern parts of the state which is unfortunately where I was initially targeting (the closest drive from Oklahoma). I was hoping to stay south of I-80 but if morning clouds/rain look to be a problem I may target as far N/W as Grand Island. I have no reservations so if it looks really bad in Nebraska Sunday night/early Monday I may just bail altogether. I'm not going to deal with traffic nightmare/longer drive if I would have to go through KC area or further east.
  3. So is it not actually a depression then? I guess I need to read up more on this new Potential Tropical Cyclone term
  4. When did 35 kts not become the threshold for tropical storm status? "Potential Tropical Cyclone Two" is a 35 kt depression at the moment.
  5. 15z sounding should hopefully shed a little more light on if the cap is being underdone by models. We should have a pretty good idea by 18-19z either way.
  6. I think the vast majority of the tornado threat looks to focus to the west of the 35 corridor.
  7. Well I think I'm ready to see what next week has in store at this point.
  8. Yeah we'll see if the storms initiating to its south play nicely or run interference. Also at the moment it has a very HP look to it
  9. Latest HRRR takes what could be argued is that supercell northeast up the boundary all the way into OKC area 01-02z timeframe.
  10. HRRR has no clue with regards to the outflow boundary location. Not even close.
  11. That boundary doesn't really seem to be showing signs of slowing down either. Elevated convection to the north of it should keep reinforcing it at least in the near term.
  12. Thanks for putting that together, Quincy. It really is amazing how few tornados there have been in the southern Plains this year. And like you said, it would be hard to draw up a much worse pattern for the first 10-15 days of May. There is always the end of May when good things can happen with less than stellar troughs but I have to admit my optimism has really trailed off the past few weeks.
  13. So who else is excited for the omega death block of doom the next 7-10+ days? Fun times.
  14. Yep pretty much a perfect storm screwjob
  15. I don't think the expansion was for conditional CI this afternoon but for intense supercells this evening that may have a chance at being surface based along the warm front. HRRR has been consistent in this scenario with a surprisingly low amount of SBCIN in the 04-07z time frame in the OKC area. Personally I think it may be underdoing the CIN but if a couple really intense supercells go up along the boundary it isn't out of the realm of possibilities for a couple tornadoes this evening.