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WhiteoutWX

Meteorologist
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  1. WhiteoutWX

    Major Hurricane Michael

    That Brett Adair stream is straight up scary. Those guys look stuck right in the worst spot.
  2. WhiteoutWX

    ENSO 2018

    Yeah from a subsurface standpoint this is looking nothing like 2012. Subsurface warmth is increasing still. Looks more like 2006 to me.
  3. WhiteoutWX

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Tell that to Wilmington... I think the Euro shows lots of possibilities still on the table. This would spare inland area for the most part but could be devastating for coastal locations with prolonged impacts from wind, surf, rain.
  4. WhiteoutWX

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    PBP of the NAM looking for track clues belongs in banter thread
  5. WhiteoutWX

    Major Hurricane Florence

    It keeps it’s speed until about Fayetville, NC. Then it slowly meanders northwestward from there to just northwest of RDU 24 hours later. The stall is definitely after landfall, though it is for sure stalling sooner than the 0z run. Though I should stay it never truly stalls like the GFS, just slows down.
  6. WhiteoutWX

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Also, I know the global raw pressures shouldn’t be trusted, but if the pressure trend is right it shows it strengthening right up to landfall. 976 mb at 78 hrs, down to 957 mb at 84 hours landfall.
  7. WhiteoutWX

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Landfall at Cape fear/Wilmington area at 84 hours.
  8. WhiteoutWX

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Convection is still more robust in the northern semicircle. Still fighting some dry air to the south I think. Compact circulation though, which as we know means intensity changes can rapidly occur. I think we will see a strengthening trend very shortly as it continues to mix out drier air.
  9. WhiteoutWX

    Major Hurricane Florence

    With shear relaxing only thing holding it back is the dry air on the south and southeastern flanks. That should become less of an issue with time.
  10. WhiteoutWX

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Based on pattern recognition and the orientation of the US coastline. There’s nothing to pull the storm back northwest once it turns north.
  11. WhiteoutWX

    Major Hurricane Florence

    The orientation of the ridge doesn’t really support landfall anywhere in tbe northeast. This thing is either coming inland in NC/SC/GA or I can see a scenario where it approaches the coast, stalls, then heads east or east-northeast. You’d need a ridge further north than shown to get a storm into the northeast coastline.
  12. WhiteoutWX

    Major Hurricane Florence

    One thing to watch for would also be the weak system near Bermuda currently. Currently has a low chance of development per NHC but if it was able to organize a little more than forecast I could see that having the effect of opening a path more northward for Florence, or at the very least it could keep the ridge from building in as quickly or as far west. These types of seemingly insignificant systems can have large and unforeseen influences sometimes.
  13. WhiteoutWX

    Major Hurricane Florence

    While the media hype has already begun and likely to get even worse today, it’s clear based on the GFS/Euro ensembles, and even the 6z OP GFS that the OTS option is still on the table. It’s still too early to be calling this a slam dunk regarding landfall. However, I feel more confident based on model agreement on intensity being cat 3 or higher by day 5. The forecast environment seems to be unanimously favorable for strengthening, or at least maintaining high intensity.
  14. I've always thought the idea of a chasecation seemed pretty risky. Even excluding this years absolute trainwreck into a pile of dumpster fires of a season...during a normal season a week of poorly timed troughs could mean the whole vacation is a wash. Maybe I'm just not a "dedicated" enough chaser though lol.
  15. WhiteoutWX

    Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion

    2018...everything that can go wrong, will go wrong.
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