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  1. With the MCS already nearing the edge of the enhanced me thinks they’ll be trimming that a bit.
  2. I looked around at SPC and NCDC's websites but wasn't able to find a historical count of US tornadoes by month. I'm sure it exists somewhere though. Given the current and upcoming pattern I wouldn't be surprised if we finish under 100 this month.
  3. Tbh I had kind of overlooked today’s setup as it’s not really chaseable terrain but it very much resembles a land falling tropical system. On radar at least. Interesting!
  4. Good luck! Iowa seems to surprise on occasion.
  5. Wasn’t sure whether to use the long range thread or this one but I’ll just put it here. Looks like the next seven days or so will be unusually quiet over the plains as a deep cutoff forms over the eastern US this week, cutting off moisture return to the plains. However, after this low lifts out ensembles seem to be in fairly good agreement with perhaps some more progressive troughing out west which could lead to an uptick during the climatological peak season. We’ve seen models hinting at better patterns in the long range this year which turned out to not be so great in the end, but in the last half of May it really does not take much to get at least a small event.
  6. The surging outflow has really wrecked a lot of the severe potential for much of OK. Shear is even less impressive to the south so not very enthused about convection in TX, at least as far as tornadoes.
  7. I guess today's severe weather will go here? Looks like an active day with numerous storms likely. Low-level shear doesn't look particularly strong for tornadoes (bulk shear is also only in the 20-30 kt range), but with multiple boundaries in play across Oklahoma would not be surprised at a mesoscale accident producing a spinup or two.
  8. Rapid clearing now across the panhandles into western OK. Cumulus forming on the dryline across the TX panhandle. Initiation likely in the next hour to two hours.
  9. Probably your best bet today. Will be interesting to see how quickly moisture returns and how long the clouds hang on today. Currently pretty socked in with clouds and fog all across the area.
  10. It does appear like the models have upped the effective bulk shear closer to the 40 kt range, but the cap is stout ahead of the dryline, especially on the NAM. Storms may struggle to sustain updrafts long enough to achieve supercellular status. The NAM is also advertising low-level wind fields which are basically unidirectional in the first kilometer by 00z this evening. Combined with models suggesting quick upscale growth, I'm a little skeptical on tornado potential.
  11. The graphical issues are a NWS wide server problem affecting their websites. Maybe you should keep your uninformed opinions to yourself before calling people idiots.
  12. Hard to say for sure. It's further south with the cooler air more entrenched into Texas Tuesday night. It has a weaker wave coming out Wednesday as well so probably a combination of those two things. Usually the NAM is best in the winter with shallow cold fronts, but this far into spring it is a little less believable. If we do get a lot of precip Tuesday across the panhandles and OK I could see the cooler airmass being slower to budge than the globals are showing.
  13. Lack of forcing may hinder development as well. NAM is barely convecting (a known bias) but in this case there are only neutral at best height tendencies across the risk area so it’s at least a bit of a concern. I think we see at least some storms but how many will probably depend on subtle short waves and other small scale features that are hard to predict at range.