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WhiteoutWX

Meteorologist
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  1. WhiteoutWX

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Cell split after cell split out in western OK
  2. WhiteoutWX

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    So I guess oddly we are right back where we thought we would be 6 hours ago. Storms would struggle south of 40 and west of 35 and the greatest tornado threat would be north and east of OKC. The cap break at 2 pm turned out to be a fake out.
  3. WhiteoutWX

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Definitely looks like the instability/shear balance is off
  4. WhiteoutWX

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Soon as I said that is took a downturn. Looks a lot less organized. Hmmm not sure why it appears to be struggling.
  5. WhiteoutWX

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Cells to the east of OKC look to be quickly organizing. Environment is more favorable this area.
  6. WhiteoutWX

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Core of the storm near Geronimo is rapidly growing. Other cells nearby have died. I'd expect tornado potential to rapidly increase in the next hour.
  7. WhiteoutWX

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Conditional meaning the environment was highly favorable but there was question on if storms would form or not. Now that they're forming the environment can be realized.
  8. WhiteoutWX

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Big wall cloud near Geronimo now
  9. WhiteoutWX

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Might take a little while for the cells to the SW. Low level shear isnt as great as further east and cells are spaced too close at the moment.
  10. WhiteoutWX

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Extensive stratus + height rises maybe too much to overcome south of I40 today away from the boundary. I’m highly suspect of CAMs showing supercells south of there in the warm sector. Agree though that enhanced risk area could be busy later on.
  11. WhiteoutWX

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    I agree with both those points. I remember thinking that the few storms that developed early in the warm sector were screaming north too quickly and weren’t going to have enough time to fully mature. So even if they had formed as advertised that may have caused problems.
  12. WhiteoutWX

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    Ok since I’m one of the people that called “bust” yesterday at 5 pm, here’s why I said it and why I still stand by it. First off, obviously I would never EVER put that out there as a meteorologist on social media. That would be irresponsible and lead people to let their guard down early, in the same way that it is irresponsible when people go on social media and scream the sky is falling. But this isn’t social media and the people on this forum, at least in my opinion, should be able to handle scientific debate and know the difference. Second, when I said “bust” I didn’t just throw that out there with no reasoning. I was using scientific reasoning and solid meteorological analysis. The cap was clearly holding and it became evident that the storms many of the models were suggesting would fire in southern Oklahoma simply weren’t going to materialize. The reason the high risk was extended eastward into the OKC metro was exactly for that reason. When it became clear it wasn’t going to happen I don’t see what is wrong with calling it as it is unfolding. Again, when backed up by solid reasoning supported by the evidence I just don’t see what is wrong with what is essentially putting out a FORECAST on a forecasting forum. People can debate the semantics on if using the word “bust” is the right term or right way to say it, but I don’t see the big deal using it to describe when a forecast isn’t going as planned, which was all what I was trying to convey. Third, I noticed a lot of confusion over what constitutes risk areas yesterday. SPC has very rigid and very clear definition of how they verify their risks on their website. Yesterday’s high risk was strictly driven by tornado probabilities, not some combination of hail, wind, and tornadoes. Their high risk was only going to verify with a large number of tornado reports. The strength of the tornadoes or how much damage is completely irrelevant (for better or worse) in how these things are scored. We needed a large number of supercells yesterday to get it done, and it became clear early on we weren’t gonna get that, at least across the eastern half of the risk area.
  13. WhiteoutWX

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    Cold air/outflow generated by this mornings storms wins out. That and the relative lack of warm sector development where the best environment was today were the killers. It happens. But just shows that there is still a lot more to severe forecasting than looking at pretty composite parameters. Thermo/kinematic environment are only one piece as storm mode/number of storms once again proves to be just as important as it has shown to be in past busts. And yes, this will indeed be a bust. Some people here seem to be confused or forgot that SPC verification of convective outlooks is strictly based on number of reports and has nothing to do with strength of tornadoes, impacts, etc.
  14. WhiteoutWX

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    First legit looking tornado of the day near Mangum now.
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