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About WhiteoutWX

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  1. Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion

    2018...everything that can go wrong, will go wrong.
  2. With quite the stout cap to go along with it. I think Saturday the only hope is further north with stronger forcing. I haven’t looked to closet though tbh.
  3. This is mostly in jest, but when the long range GFS has been consistently showing hurricane landfalls in the gulf in May you know the overall pattern is total crap.
  4. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Northwest Oklahoma really stands out there with no reports at all. ^^
  5. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    I would guess the weak inflow winds were creating rather unbalanced RFDs in addition to limiting low level shear magnitude. I can say that visually the storms looked very outflow dominant.
  6. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Surface winds were due southeasterly by 6 or 7 pm across most of central and southern Oklahoma ahead of the storms. Seemed pretty backed to me. However what I did notice as I was out chasing yesterday was just how light inflow winds were. I think that may have been a bigger contributor to failure than the wind direction itself.
  7. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    That's a pretty sizeable westward shift in the threat area over OK from the 12z CAMs runs ^^ Would likely save most of the metro OKC area from much of a tornado threat if initiation is that far west.
  8. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Guess we will see. My bigger concern is still if we get initiation vs. too early. But just my opinion. ETA: I’m specifically referring to Oklahoma, my chaseable area.
  9. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Where is this idea coming from? Everything I’ve seen has early initiation up in Kansas but rather limited coverage in most of Oklahoma until closer to 0z. Always a balancing act between too much/too little forcing.
  10. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    I have noticed the height falls being depicted for tomorrow across Oklahoma are not quite as robust as were being shown even a day or two ago. Looks neutral to only slightly negative. May make initiation a little harder.
  11. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    He has some legitimate points. I’m not sure initiation will be super early though so some of those concerns may not matter.
  12. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    D3 outlook lacked much detail, which I’m fine with for now until details become clearer. I do think the sig risk area should extend to southwest Oklahoma given the GFS/Euro agree on quite the potent environment here. But again, D3, not worth nitpicking at this point.
  13. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    I'm not going to be trusting the long range NAM for synoptic details over the GFS/Euro. While a subtle slowing trend has been evident on the global models the past couple days, they still have plenty of QPF signal, indicating initiation is not a problem. 0z GFS has moderate/strong height falls 18-0z on Wednesday afternoon, plenty of low level shear, and upper 60s/near 70 dewpoints. I'm not gonna panic yet over some slight downtick of the threat on the 12z Euro and the long range NAM out on an island. The threat still looks fairly robust to me.
  14. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    No forecaster has all the answers at this point. It’s best to take any forecast at 4+ day leads with a grain of salt.
  15. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Obviously we don’t want widespread warm sector precip, I was more talking about the precip signal along the dryline which, especially on the Euro, looks very meager. Again, not overly concerned yet, just an observation when comparing the 0z vs. 12z runs.