WhiteoutWX

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  1. Just focusing on central Oklahoma the 00z NAM/HRRR and 21z RAP were very nice and have all come in with higher snow totals and a longer duration, lingering light snow well into Wednesday afternoon. Again it will likely come down to a narrow band where snow totals end up being close to double areas to the north and south.
  2. 12z Euro/GFS really backing off on snow totals for tomorrow/Wednesday storm. Hi-res models are generally higher, but disagree on exact location on heavier band. I think this one will end up with a much more narrow area of good snows compared to yesterday/today. I think most should expect 2-4", with isolated 6-8" possible if the hi-res models are right with a heavier band.
  3. Still moderate to heavy snow in Norman. Been like this since about 1 today. Radar seems to be filling in some to the SW. I think we could definitely reach the 8-10” forecast here.
  4. I’m not sure really. It has a deeper and more neutrally tilted wave which helps precipitation blossom further west and is also a bit slower. Ive noticed the euro has had a bit of a NW bias all season though so it may be a bit off.
  5. Euro looks so much different than every other model for NW OK and the panhandles. It’s been very persistent about the max snowfall being mostly west of 35, all the other models are SE of there.
  6. It's actually been very consistent overall today as far as I can tell for much of SW MO, S Kansas, central and western OK. Maybe a slight decrease but still way more than any other model. The area of greatest variability has been over Arkansas and north Texas. I'd still call it a win to see it mostly hold in the face of some of the drier CAMs. Let's see if they start to come on board more as we get more in range.
  7. Euro looking juicy again for much of central and western OK through 00z Sunday. Continues to be slower and deeper with the wave than the other models. Overall very similar to 18z. Max QPF totals central and western OK.
  8. It's not the great look we were seeing yesterday with widespread > 0.5" totals, but I feel it at least stopped the bleeding.
  9. Overall 00z GFS looks very similar to 18z, if not slightly better. Definitely not a drying trend.
  10. While the CAMS are a little worrying for many (dry), let's wait for the 00z GFS and Euro before panicking. The CAMs may still be a bit out of their best range right now.
  11. GFS ensemble has clearly be trending southward the past 4 runs, with 12z continuing the trend. Looking a little dry in southern Kansas and SW MO now.
  12. 00z GEM more expansive with precip than 12z, but QPF totals still much less than GFS/Euro. Still, a step in the right direction.
  13. I would trust the GFS/Euro and their ensembles still at this range. Could the NAM be right? Sure. Is it the most likely solution in the face of all the other model data right now? Not really. I will say that its solution is the way I have been worried we fail for the past couple days. It keys in more on the lead wave and doesn’t get it out of the way in time. The other models ride the knifes edge and just barely keep the lead wave weak enough for the trailing wave to amplify and take on a more neutral to negative tilt. Again, the NAM is unlikely to be right at this range, but I will be watch the trends on the other models regarding the lead wave very closely. That’s the key IMO.
  14. 6z GFS less snow for those east of 35. It weakens the shortwave and ends up flatter. Looks like the GEFS is not as bad but does cut QPF some for eastern OK, NW AR, southern MO.