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  1. Which to me seems like will be very difficult as fast as the system is moving. Probably not an easy thing to track down but does anyone know of a system that underwent RI with a forward speed this fast? Even anecdotally? I can't think of one.
  2. Not saying there is no threat, but I would think the rapid movement and relatively compact nature of the system should really limit both the freshwater and surge flooding concerns.
  3. Do these things really take that long to have an effect on climate? I would have thought that it would bring effecting it as soon as the volcanic aerosols are advected globally and can begin blocking incoming solar radiation, like within a couple weeks of eruption. I lack any expertise in this area of meteorology but just from my basic understanding of aerosols I would have expected a more immediate impact.
  4. Looks like the northern eye wall has already emerged offshore per satellite.
  5. The core may still be fairly intact for now but this still has a long way to go before it's far enough away from the Cuban coastline to start recovering. I'm thinking it emerges as a Cat 2, restrengthens to a 3 before landfall. It is a big system and these are the ones that often take the longest to recover, even with bath water to work with.
  6. Eyeballing the 6 hour average motion, this definitely looks to be heading for at least some portion of the northern Cuba coast. Wobbles will be very important and any change in heading (north or south) will have large impacts as to how much strength the storm maintains as it makes the northward turn tomorrow.
  7. Just in case people forgot, last year Matthew ended up tacking 10-20 miles further offshore than the models had even as close in as 12 hours out. That 10-20 miles ended up saving family of mine from the eyewall near Cape Canaveral. It could also be the difference here for Miami and surrounding areas. Just wanted to remind people even with the best model clustering these storms can still deviate some from the best forecasts.
  8. IR appearance is a little degraded the past hour. I wonder if the general circulation is feeling some effects from Hispañola. You can see some intense convection firing on the south side of the island in relation to southerly upslope flow associated with the outer reaches of Irma.
  9. I also agree that the general pattern at the end of the Euro run with an upper low in the Midwest and a building ridge to the north/northeast of the storm argues for a more NW component. But hey it's 10 days out.
  10. I don't see how recon is going to make any discernible difference at this point when the storm is still 4-5 days away from affecting any land areas. Other than to satisfy a few weenies.
  11. I wonder how long the southward trend continues? Given the apparent strength of the Atlantic ridge and Irma's tendency to already be verifying south of guidance what are the chances it stays south into the Caribbean? One more nudge south by the Euro and it would basically stay south of most or all of the islands. Then the question becomes how much influence does the eastern trough have in the day 7-10 range? Lots to still be sorted out.
  12. That's a fairly sizable trough in the Eastern US in the Day 6-9 range. Just how long that lingers will determine if this is really a threat to the US. GFS says it picks the system up, Euro says the trough leaves it. Though even on the Euro it looks pretty close to picking it up to me. If the trough is just a little slower/deeper than shown right now this should move out to sea a fairly safe distance from the US. Edit to add: The track difference between the Euro and GFS become pretty sizable even by day 5/6, with the GFS much further north, which makes recurve that much easier when the eastern trough lifts out.
  13. Colder cloud tops erupting on northwest quad the past 15-30 minutes per GOES16 IR
  14. One factor starting to become a negative regarding strengthening is the center of the storm is beginning to approach the continental shelf and the shallow water will began limiting oceanic heat content. Also as it slows upwelling may begin to have an effect. I think realistically it's window for strengthening is about the next 4-6 hours or so.
  15. You can see the stronger velocities in the outer eye wall on Brownsville's radar.