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WhiteoutWX

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  1. So is it not actually a depression then? I guess I need to read up more on this new Potential Tropical Cyclone term
  2. When did 35 kts not become the threshold for tropical storm status? "Potential Tropical Cyclone Two" is a 35 kt depression at the moment.
  3. 15z sounding should hopefully shed a little more light on if the cap is being underdone by models. We should have a pretty good idea by 18-19z either way.
  4. I think the vast majority of the tornado threat looks to focus to the west of the 35 corridor.
  5. Well I think I'm ready to see what next week has in store at this point.
  6. Yeah we'll see if the storms initiating to its south play nicely or run interference. Also at the moment it has a very HP look to it
  7. Latest HRRR takes what could be argued is that supercell northeast up the boundary all the way into OKC area 01-02z timeframe.
  8. HRRR has no clue with regards to the outflow boundary location. Not even close.
  9. That boundary doesn't really seem to be showing signs of slowing down either. Elevated convection to the north of it should keep reinforcing it at least in the near term.
  10. Thanks for putting that together, Quincy. It really is amazing how few tornados there have been in the southern Plains this year. And like you said, it would be hard to draw up a much worse pattern for the first 10-15 days of May. There is always the end of May when good things can happen with less than stellar troughs but I have to admit my optimism has really trailed off the past few weeks.
  11. So who else is excited for the omega death block of doom the next 7-10+ days? Fun times.
  12. Yep pretty much a perfect storm screwjob
  13. I don't think the expansion was for conditional CI this afternoon but for intense supercells this evening that may have a chance at being surface based along the warm front. HRRR has been consistent in this scenario with a surprisingly low amount of SBCIN in the 04-07z time frame in the OKC area. Personally I think it may be underdoing the CIN but if a couple really intense supercells go up along the boundary it isn't out of the realm of possibilities for a couple tornadoes this evening.
  14. Good moisture barely overlaps with the favorable shear profiles. Net result is a run of the mill late April slight risk worthy event. It will be unbelievably bad luck if we make it through this entire week without a single decent event given the number of potential days and quality of moisture waiting in the gulf. Ultimately I think the same problem we have been having will be the culprit again...too many waves spaced too close together. Moisture just hasn't been able to recover into the plains in front of a quality trough.
  15. It was just as bad or worse. Warm front barely makes it back to Red River by Friday evening.