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Showing results for tags 'kansas'.
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Autumn is coming pretty quickly. Thought some early discussion would be nice. Been a spectacular summer for me. Things are greener in August and more alive looking than I remember seeing in many many years. I am incredibly ready for autumn to begin though as I believe it will be quite beautiful this year.
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From the album: Summer 2016 Thunderstorms
Panoramic view of a tornado-warned thunderstorm displays a low cloud base near Johnson City, Kansas. July 15th, 2016. -
From the album: Summer 2016 Thunderstorms
A tornado-warned thunderstorm displays a low cloud base near Johnson City, Kansas. July 15th, 2016. -
From the album: Summer 2016 Thunderstorms
A panoramic view of a mesocyclone directly overhead. This thunderstorm was producing ping pong ball sized hail at the time near Geuda Springs, Kansas. July 13th, 2016. -
From the album: Spring/Summer 2015
The sun sets amidst a lone sunflower in Minneola, KS. July 3rd, 2015. -
From the album: Spring/Summer 2015
A thunderstorm begins to form in the distance, over western Kansas, as photographed from far eastern Colorado. July 3rd, 2015. -
From looking at models and extended forecast discussions, it appears that severe weather is possibly Wednesday, April 1st through Friday, April 3rd. SPC has outlined a slight risk for portions of Eastern KS, Northwestern MO, Eastern NE, Western IA, Extreme Southeastern SD, and Extreme Sounthern WI for Wednesday. They have also outlined 15% areas for D4 and D5 in areas of Dixie Alley for Thursday and Friday. Opinions?
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Severe threat: srn Plains states + IA / MO May 7-9
Ground Scouring posted a topic in Central/Western States
Now that model agreement among the GFS ensembles, the GFS operational, the ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensembles are coming into more general agreement re: the timing of our next severe threat, I've decided to start a thread. For starters, models are keying in on a general re-loading pattern over the next five to six days with a +PNA giving way to a -PNA and a broad Western trough setting up. At the same time the MJO is forecast to be in or entering into a weak Phase 1 state over the Atlantic and W Africa with little real change in the -NAO state. Models are showing a high-quality warm sector setting up over the srn Plains by days four and five with a Sonoran EML overspreading nrn TX, OK, and KS. By day five broad lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur east of the Rockies, with a broad southerly return flow advecting a seasonably moist air mass north. While there are capping issues to contend with, especially with the positively tilted trough forecast to set up, overall the set-up would support about a three-day period for convection beginning perhaps with initation along the dryline as early as day four. Given relatively weak deep-layer shear the threat for tornadoes and severe wx generally is likely to be fairly localized, which could either be a bane or a boon to chasers depending on how the mesoscale sets up. Still, it's better than nothing! SPC seems interested: AS A WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES/DEEPENS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH-PLAINS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THUS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...STEADILY MODIFYING GULF AIR WILL CONTINUE BEING ADVECTED NWD THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY THE WED-FRI TIME PERIOD /DAYS 6-8/...INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE CAPE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...THUS SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. WITH THAT BEING SAID HOWEVER...MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING. WHILE THE GFS ADVANCES A LARGE TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF PHASED NRN- AND SRN-STREAM SYSTEMS -- EWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A SIMILARLY-TIMED NRN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCE INTO THE NRN PLAINS BUT A STATIONARY -- OR EVEN RETROGRADING -- SRN-STREAM PORTION OF THE TROUGH. WITH SUBSTANTIAL VARIATIONS ALSO THEREFORE MANIFEST IN THE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS VICINITY...TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY DELINEATING RISK AREAS REMAINS DIFFICULT ATTM. HOWEVER...AS UNCERTAINTY DIMINISHES WITH TIME AND RISK AREAS BECOME MORE CLEAR...EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY AREAS TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES AND VICINITY. -
The details are still far from being determined, but I think it's about time to start a dedicated thread for the midweek system. I don't want to dive into too many details just yet, but with the intensity of jet coming ashore early in the week and where it's coming ashore, a significant severe threat seems almost inevitable. Tuesday might be a little sketchy in the moisture department, but with well-established return flow in place, Wednesday and Thursday should have no problems in that department. In terms of location, it's a pick your poison right now on the models. The GFS has an extremely potent threat for nrn OK, KS, and srn NE, while the Euro, with its more meridional flow over the plains, would more favor OK and nrn TX, especially for tornadoes. From my experience, to see the Euro verify, I would probably want to see the jet streak come ashore with more of a NW-SE orientation to get a setup more like the Euro. Between that and the Euro's tendency to dig a trough too much in the SW US, I'm probably going to side more with the GFS leading up to this event unless we see evidence of more digging as it comes ashore. The bottom line is that a jet disturbance even stronger than the previous humdinger is coming and has the potential to lead to a series of several significant severe weather days.
