Taylorsweather

So it looks like extent in the Arctic reached 15.1M on 3/11. Probably does not get higher than that but there is a small chance it could. That said, that is the highest extent in winter since 2014. Surprised no one mentioned it.

Picked up 2.31" of mainly steady rain mixed with a couple downpours yesterday. A very nice dump with another on the way Thursday.

The 00z GFS says the cold shot is brief and not nearly as deep as previous runs. Temps next Saturday (3/12) at GSP are 59/28. Chilly but nothing Earth shattering for mid March. That does not mean NC or VA won't see true cold, but the extended and deep cold into SC has evaporated.

Unless a Superstorm 93 materializes again (1 in a 100 year chance), I don't see snow outside Central and Western NC and VA. People laugh at climo but we have climo for a reason. It's the different between snow and 30 degrees in mid January and rain and 35 in mid February. Yes, you can get a snowstorm down in SC in March but the setup has less and less margin for error the further we go from here. That's climo in a nutshell. I'm a snow lover but a realist as well. The next two weeks do not show any snow here and then you're into March. It is what it is.

At GSP, the average high is 52 in mid January. By February 1st, it's 54. By March 1st it's 60. A six degree change over February is a strong signal that our time for snow is running out, especially during the daytime. Obviously we can all recount exceptions to this rule, but the further we go, the more perfect you need the setup to cash in. I know this is a Debbie Downer post, but given that the pattern in the East starting in mid February is not ideal, I just don't see any meaningful snows (>1"), especially in Upstate SC along I-85 where I am located. I have seen many winters and at some point the cold exhausts itself and you're left with "manufacturing" the cold to get snow. It does happen, but rarely. This post does not apply to CNC, WNC, and VA where they are closer to the cold source. Climatology is a b!tch.

It's certainly better than knowing winter is over in mid January. This weekend is a legit threat but marginal. We are only at Feb 1st, but my feeling is that by mid-Feb, climo tends to tip marginal threats into no-go threats. You need a strong setup to create a winter event by then except in VA and NC. Upstate SC where you and I are tends to get shafted by then.

... and if the long range models are correct, we begin a warmup after the 15th that lasts into March.

Yes, Hudson Bay is noticeably lagging but it's northern reaches are beginning to freeze over as permanent night begins. It won't take long to catch up.

Extent is now 92,000 km2 above its low three days ago. So minimum may have occurred on 9/13.

It may take several days longer to be sure, but Jaxa extent minimum may have been reached two days ago at 4.612 million km2. We currently stand 54,000 km2 above that number after two straight days of increase.

Will the shape of the coastline as Ida approaches cause any wobbles left or right, and any contraction in the eye due to frictional effects?

I don't disagree with anything you wrote in this post. Everyone is to blame here and not just a few. The vitriol serves no purpose other than dilute energy and thought toward a better tomorrow. When you look to the past that means your back is to the future.

I didn't know you could live off the grid and still be connected to the internet. Not only because being connected uses carbon but someone off the grid is spending most of their time foraging for food. A few people do it of course but not many do or can. For the other 99.9999% of the population, it is difficult to blame the manufacturers of carbon for supplying something that we demand to use. So before one can blame the suppliers, we should be sure to shut off our use of such products, which is essentially EVERY product. Only then can we rail against carbon use. Personally I am all for nuclear energy. It is clean and efficient.

I agree. It would take 10-15 years for a full recovery if it occurs. Even in the 70's, MYI never got much older than 7 years old anywhere except right along the Canadian coast. Most of the remainder of MYI was 2-5 years old before being flushed out. The real difference is that there was a lot more MYI over the entire basin rather than be limited to the Canadian side. Of particular interest to me is what happens on the Siberian side of the ocean. If sea ice can maintain itself over multi years near that coast, I think that tips us toward an ice recovery and colder weather overall for 2-3 decades afterwards. I just don't see a mechanism for how that happens yet. Cycles of sea ice reduction and recovery has happened in the past but we didn't have satellite data to observe it and understand it. Not saying that you're doing this, but I don't get the hand waving on either side. Ice has declined since my youth in the 70's but I feel it is too early to make judgements as to whether it is permanent or temporary. Earth's counterbalance measures are extraordinary and she hasn't entered the fray yet. It's too soon to tell either way. Give it 20 years and we'll know by then.

You will agree of course that climate goes through cycles, with some on the order of multidecadal up through millennial timescales. So with that said, is it any wonder that during one of these 60-70 year or greater cycles we come across an "unprecedented" situation after only 32 years of recordkeeping. Fact is, every single record for the first couple years at that station was unprecedented. Now if the Arctic keeps this up for another 20 years, I could become more alarmed, but until we go through a full climate cycle, color me not impressed with a 32 year snapshot of a multi-million year record.