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jojo762

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  1. lol 12z GFS shows a high-impact blizzard in Colorado and some light snow along the I-70 corridor in KS/MO by D7-8. That came out of nowhere. Verbatim the temp profile appears to support more a mix/very cold rain, but still something to glance at I suppose.
  2. 75kt SFMR readings on the latest pass... FL winds of 95kt.
  3. Before anyone gets too excited or too high on their throne for thinking Maria is going to effect the ECONUS, it should be noted that the King (Euro) is still much further east. Maria is also likely to be a shell of her former self by the time any potential US impact were to occur as she will be moving over cooler waters in the wake of Jose, in addition to an increase in shear.
  4. 18z GFS brings hurricane conditions to the easternmost outer banks, and TS conditions to far eastern NC. Definitely a good deal further west this run.
  5. Didn't see the data set from the NHC website... but looks like roughly 120-125kt FL winds in the NW quadrant of Maria per latest recon pass, southeast quad about the same at flight level.
  6. Yep... that ULL over the SECONUS really is not nearly strong enough to pull Maria in with how far east she will be.
  7. With the NHC OFCL... Both the euro and GFS shows a similar pattern by D5... pretty much game over for this storm. I mean perhaps it get far enough west that it produces TS conditions somewhere along the east coast, but any legit direct impacts are not going to happen unless there is some cataclysmic modeling error.
  8. Both the GFS and Euro (the most reliable models when tracking tropical systems) show a very similar evolution of Maria, the ridge(s), and the positively tilted north-CONUS trough... With Maria moving WNW, then north and northeast, then getting trapped under the high and moving a bit more west and north... the ridge then weakens and allows the trough to kick east and capture Maria... Good luck with your thinking.
  9. Looks like recon did a lot of flying around in the "eye" trying to find the center... Looks like an extrapolated pressure between 958-959mb... Still holding steady with perhaps some slight strengthening basing off of FL/SFMR winds.
  10. Yeah, not too shabby... Not flagged either except for the 2nd to last ob. 162530 2039N 06853W 6964 02958 9861 +098 +098 144113 115 092 034 00 162600 2038N 06854W 6957 02954 9834 +110 +110 145115 117 089 045 00 162630 2038N 06855W 6979 02924 9826 +112 +112 147113 115 097 049 00 162700 2037N 06856W 6955 02930 9803 +112 +112 150110 113 109 050 00 162730 2036N 06857W 6972 02901 9791 +117 +117 153111 113 115 036 00 162800 2035N 06858W 6966 02896 9774 +115 +115 155107 110 112 026 00 162830 2034N 06858W 6974 02875 9763 +115 +115 155108 109 109 021 00 162900 2033N 06859W 6955 02884 9747 +110 //// 154107 108 107 022 01 162930 2032N 06901W 6969 02854 9731 +116 +116 153100 105 104 017 00
  11. Well both the NAVGEM and CMC bring Maria into the US but with both the GFS and ECMWF showing an OTS solution, it appears that this is all she wrote... Things could still change, but that seems unlikely... With nothing new to track for the foreseeable future - which has been quite rare recently, as we have had a tropical system in the Atlantic for the past 28 days.
  12. One of the more bizarre looking eyes you'll ever see... and likely why there is a double thermal max seen in recon data.
  13. Maria moving north of due west between hours 138-144....
  14. Safe to call it an OTS'er at this point... but not before causing widespread and significant damage in the Caribbean.
  15. Looks like Jose weakens quite a bit on the 18Z GFS, and the ridges appear to connect, but hard to tell if there is still a weakness for Maria to escape OTS or not so far in the run through hr108... IMO steering gets pretty murky on this run by hour 108 as the cyclone slows significantly.