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jojo762

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  1. Thought Thursday looked good basing off of CAMs (as did numerous chasers) and thought yesterday looked good too. Both failed miserably... At this point even the Atlantic hurricane season looks like it could be underwhelming with how SSTs are below-average across the entire MDR, crummy year to say the least.
  2. Things appear to be popping off as the storms that will likely be the main show can be seen developing ~70 miles west of KMBX and KBIS. VADs from both sites reveal a very favorable low-level wind field. Not entirely sold on a big time tornado threat though as SPC mesoanalysis indicates that low-level lapse rates did not really recover from the morning/early afternoon convection, resulting in meager or no 0-3km CAPE.
  3. TOR in progress west of DDC. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD AND EAST CENTRAL GRAY COUNTIES... At 448 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Ensign, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Howell around 505 PM CDT.
  4. The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Ford County in southwestern Kansas... East central Gray County in southwestern Kansas... * Until 530 PM CDT * At 443 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 3 miles northwest of Ensign, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Ensign around 450 PM CDT. Howell around 515 PM CDT.
  5. Literally every single storm in southern Kansas has a hook right now. None with strong rotation yet, but that'll probably come as storms and wind fields mature. Feel like the Clark Co./Comanche Co. KS storm is going to be a beast eventually... its currently starting to develop some rotation.
  6. That DDC storm is beautiful still, best looking storm ATTM... But the supercell just east of ICT has more of my attention given it is attached to a boundary. EDIT: Boundary out ran it. smh.
  7. I feel like this is all of us, and the rest of the storm chasing community this season. It's actually quite remarkable how incredibly boring and awful it has been across all the various tornado hotspots (i.e., Plains and Dixie Alley).
  8. Yesterday was completely underwhelming. The writing was on the wall with regard to storm mode, and models really busted pretty hard on where the boundary ended up setting up shop at.... but it still seemed probable that we would get at least one interesting tornadic storm, albeit I expected it to be HP and messy, or two along/south of the OFB (wherever it was supposed to setup)... And that really didn't pan out, hail-wise yesterday was even a bust. Yesterday was very likely our last potentially semi-interesting day of May in the central and southern plains, and for the foreseeable future, perhaps some hints of moderate west/southwesterly mid-level flow at some point in the next few weeks, but no real definite/obvious signals. We currently sit at a remarkably sad amount of tornadoes for the year. RIP 2018 severe season.
  9. Tomorrow should be interesting near the triple point and along any OFBs put out by the morning MCS. Vorticity rich environment should exist INVOF of the boundary, in addition to BL moisture pooling along it AND lapse rates in excess of 8.0C/KM resulting in explosive levels of instability. Still believe things get messy - as every CAM indicates - but also believe there will be a discrete/semi-discrete supercell or two for at least a couple hours along the front and near the triple point, in addition to transient supercell structures that will exist later on as storms congeal... QLCS potential will be quite high as well later on. Something I have noted on NAM forecast soundings that has me a bit concerned is early in the afternoon (21z or so) when storms start to get going is that 0-1KM SRH is fairly underwhelming, while 0-3KM SRH is still relatively impressive, it is going to be hard to get tornadogenesis and sustained mesos with 1. Lots of storm interactions/messy modes, and 2. meager 0-1km SRH.
  10. Starting to really get interested in Saturday. Might have to make a short trip. Nuclear CAPE owing to impressive BL moisture on the order of 70+ degree surface DPs and 8.0-8.3C/KM Lapse Rates, with relatively impressive directional shear with winds out of the southeast at the surface veering to SW at 6km. Upper-level winds are fairly tame so venting and supercell mode *will* be a problem. But low-levels look sufficient for mesos on the NAM and GFS. Have not looked at the euro yet but I will take Jeff's word for it that it looks better. FWIW, 4km NAM shows a mixed storm mode with bows and supercells across NE KS/SE NE into NW MO Saturday afternoon and evening. A bit concerned about a morning MCS, but ultimately believe it would put out a boundary that would probably be the biggest play of the day with surface winds likely being locally more backed and moisture pooling along the boundary. Will have to wait and see, as there has clearly been a trend of setups falling apart come D-day, but saturday is starting to look like a more interesting day in model land, the opposite of what we have been seeing -- given that it is mid/late May. KTOP has a good discussion:
  11. GFS looks decent for saturday in NE KS, but everything else is atrocious for any type of semi-legit severe potential. The Euro looks especially garbage for Saturday. Nice mid-level jet punching the warm-sector but low-level winds are depressing and even instability and moisture are seasonably underwhelming.
  12. Naturally on a junk day, the I35 corridor gets a tornado. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Wichita KS 645 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018 KSC035-150030- /O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180515T0030Z/ Cowley KS- 645 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN COWLEY COUNTY... At 645 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Arkansas City, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Arkansas City, Winfield, Maple City and Strother Field Airport
  13. Looking at the 12Z GFS/EURO/GEFS/EPS, the next couple weeks look like they could be mind numbingly boring with above average 500mb heights being forecast across much of the plains states through the period. With that said, as Quincy stated, mother nature will probably pull a rabbit out of a hat a time or two and surprise us at some point... Long-range guidance could quickly change and Late may could end up being big, as it has been in recent years, so stay tuned.
  14. Fairly significant model variability, but seems like there very well could end up being at least some severe threat over the plains next weekend. 12Z GFS was pretty aggressive for Saturday in particular.
  15. jojo762

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Lmao. I'm simply contributing somethinng of substance to the board (unlike you), I definitely had several criticisms of the setup and not everything was hype. Everything I said was a representation of what models showed, in addition to what've I figured could happen. I wasn't the only one excited. Even SPC was mentioning tornadic supercells and strong tornadoes at D5... and the talk on twitter was easily more hyped than anything I ever said. Chill out dude.
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