jojo762

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  1. On to tomorrow... models hinting at a narrow zone in Nebraska featuring higher tornado potential. Biggest failure mode appears to be upscale growth/clustering of convection.
  2. Looks like the potential storm of the day might be taking shape near Ashley, ND... Pretty solid circulation on going, with classic supercell characteristics taking shape on reflectivity. EDIT: Overall looking like a pretty tough day so far for chasers as most picked northeastern ND, which got ruined pretty quickly by a large temperature gradient on the N/S warm front, which given storm motions isn’t exactly favorable...
  3. Today could be a big time day across South and North Dakota and into Minnesota... The whole gamut of severe weather is likely today. Strong tornadoes are possible with any discrete convection; but this presents the question of the day, how long, if at all, will storms stay discrete? If they do there’s a good possibility the plains sees its biggest tornado day of the year — if things get grungy quickly storms will still produce lots of severe weather, but probably not many tornadoes. Everything is there for an anomalous day in the northern plains, but will it happen? Stay tuned.
  4. Today features an extraordinarily anomalous setup (at least I can’t exactly recall seeing anything like it) across large parts of Washington and Oregon, where an ENH risk for severe wind gusts exists.
  5. Looking like today’s tornado potential might nearly be toast as these early storms south of Waco have pushed out a southward surging outflow boundary that does not appear to be stopping any time soon. Non-zero tornado potential will likely exist with any convection that stays surface-based and attached to the eastern end of the OFB (I.e., cells immediately northwest of College Station, TX).
  6. Considered making the drive from Kansas down to central Texas for tomorrow, in what will very likely be the only central/southern Plains severe threat for at least a week or week and a half. But decided to hold off in lieu of hope for better northern plains potential later on in June. As Quincy referenced, in spite of what will probably discrete/semi-discrete storm modes for a few hours after initiation, dew-points are very unimpressive tomorrow for central Texas, and low-level shear will be pretty mediocre until roughly 00z -- and at that point storms will probably be a sloppy mess. Ultimately there will likely be beautiful supercells tomorrow, but much like Friday of last week, these supercells will likely struggle to obtain strong enough low-level rotation to produce notable tornadoes. All the twitter talk about a 10% sig tor for tomorrow completely ignores low-level thermos/kinematics that are critical for tornadogenesis in favor of mixed CAM output showing potentially discrete storm modes. Tomorrow probably is not worth a 7 to 9 hour drive down there for me... unfortunately this is how May 2020 severe chances will end on the plains. Unless tomorrow pulls a rabbit out of the hat, we will end up with the lowest number of May U.S. tornadoes since 1970. FWIW I'll go with a hypothetical starting point/target of Temple, TX.
  7. 00z LBF sounding did show a pretty stout cap at ~700mb last night... so probably a combo of both a several degree bust on forecast surface moisture and heating AND a traditional capping inversion.
  8. Funny how tons of chasers (myself included) get sucked into NW KS after being near Wichita Falls yesterday by a few HRRR runs... should’ve been obvious things were going to struggle given the initiation location relative to the moisture axis as well as the warm 700mb temps. Most well documented rain shower of all time.
  9. Was on this storm from initiation onward until it merged into a blob near sunset. Wrapped up really nicely numerous times, produced numerous dusty tornadoes that weren’t fully condensated. Really thought it was going to produce something more significant at least a couple times — but it never could quite get it going. RFD was quite strong, but perhaps not warm/moist enough — and the inflow wasn’t all that strong really. On to tomorrow which offers a wide range of targets... most of which are probably too far from Wichita Falls to actually chase. Looking like Sunday could possibly be the last “severe day” the plains have for a while.
  10. Don’t know if even the current ENH risk area is far enough south, given how fast the OFB is surging southward.
  11. Today was my first official day of my mini-chasecation. Made it to AMA this afternoon after staying the night last night in Edmond OK, and chased dryline convection down to near Hart TX. Storms struggled to get going, and nothing really got well organized — combo of weak shear and weak lift. Going to sightsee in the panhandle tomorrow morning then head to near Garden City, KS for tomorrow’s round of storms. Expect a decent amount more of organization out of tomorrow’s storms, nonetheless things could and probably will get messy pretty quickly. Friday and Saturday offer several potential targets (although they aren’t super far apart necessarily), and both days are looking pretty boom-or-bust attm. EDIT: actually after having looked at 00z guidance... I’m not so sure on garden city as a target. Gonna be a bit of a obs day.
  12. SPC is interestingly bearish. Hardly even mentioning severe potential across the central/southern plains in the D4-8 time period. Very interesting, as models have consistently showed at least some potential in the Thur-sun time period.
  13. Good luck! Potential for “better” more interesting chases later on in the week possibly. Don’t get too burnt out on driving by then Quincy!
  14. Looking like those long range ensembles from May 8th are going to verify. Looking at a multi-day period starting mid-week with severe potential along a lengthy portion of the high plains... followed by what will likely be several days of severe storm opportunities from Thursday-Sunday in the central and southern plains. Models diverge a bit on details and days of interest, so it’s hard to nail down many specifics. Good chance we don’t see any days delineated in tonight’s D4-8. For example, though, the GFS is more aggressive with Thursday and Saturday, while the Euro is aggressive with Thursday (in an area much further west than the GFS) and on Sunday.
  15. Was on the same storm as Quincy. Took me a while to leave my original target to go after it... but still made it just in time to at least get some structure w/ a wall cloud. As he stated, wasn’t very much rotation, but altogether not awful given my minimal expectations for the day.