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jojo762

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  1. Wrong thread for that SVR warning... But the 12Z Euro and GFS seem to have come to at least some agreement on tuesday being potentially interesting... Still some differences in orientation of mid/upper level flow among other things, but definitely some agreement on dryline placement, degree of instability, timing of CI, and strength/direction of low-level flow. Also like the current precip fields, as both models appear to favor cellular activity along the dryline in OK/Southern KS.
  2. I'm talking strictly about the essence of what is shown in model land and not focusing whatsoever on any other day-of issues like moisture or mid-upper level flow orientation, etc etc.
  3. Not even optimistic for what amounts to an ideal synoptic setup with a trough digging into the four corners while a strong ridge dominates the east coast? Hmm...
  4. Uhhh... This seems pretty ideal from the OP GFS run. Especially after the days of moisture return we are in for early/mid next week. Not going to get too excited just yet, or even attempt to predict WHEN it will happen but it definitely appears next week has some potential at some point. Euro is slower with the system than the GFS - as per usual. All GEFS members show potential at some point next week, which lends credence to some optimism.
  5. Even the CFSv2 looks god awful for the entirety of its run in May. Yikes... But like BJC said, we cannot accurately predict anything with any level of certainity at this point in time. But the current indications are fairly saddening.
  6. Fairly impressive supercell and rotation near Oden, AR. Maybe it can produce before the line overtakes it.
  7. Its on SHV... Beam is at ~8KFt, but there was definitely a significant CC drop that corresponded with a couplet.
  8. Im referring to only KS/OK/NE/IA. Really can't deny that activity in those states war thoroughly underwhelming. Arkansas/ the southern threat area will probably end up fairly decent when all is said and done.
  9. These days that feature meridional (or SSW) flow always seem to end up weird with storms struggling to maintain strength or become well-organized/intense. Seemed to have ample mid-level dry air and/or CIN to keep storms mainly cellular in Kansas, and we had multiple cells that had supercell-characteristics, yet none of them could organize particularly well or acquire an even decent RFD, let alone low-level mesos. Not a perfect setup by any means across Eastern Kansas, but still one that appeared a little better than what ended up happening. Updrafts really struggled to remain established for more than a couple hours at a time despite more-than-enough instability and ample shear. Chalk it up, as far as KS/OK/NE go, as another underwhelming plains severe setup... This has became quite an extensive list the last five/six years.
  10. I thought the exact same thing. IIRC the wording in the Vilonia MD was a lot more emphatic though.
  11. Mesoscale Discussion 0246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018 Areas affected...for portions of west-central AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 40... Valid 140006Z - 140030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues. SUMMARY...A significant tornado threat may increase and areas downstream from the Sevier County tornadic supercell ---including Montgomery and Yell counties--- are under an increasing tornado risk. DISCUSSION...A supercell with a history of tornadic activity over southwestern AR and northeast TX will continue to the northeast over the next 1-2 hours ahead of a north-northeast to south-southwest oriented band of thunderstorms. The mesoscale environment immediately on the inflow side of the supercell is characterized as very moist with surface dewpoints around 70 degrees F. Based on the wind profile from the Little Rock (LZK) VAD, around 450 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is present---supportive of low-level mesocyclonegenesis and a tornado risk. Similar thermodynamic profiles were sampled by the 00Z SHV and LZK raobs (very moist through the troposphere with moderate buoyancy, 1600-1900 J/kg MLCAPE). Given the strong low-level shear and ample buoyancy, the tornado risk may continue to increase over the next 30 minutes to 1-2 hours before the supercell becomes embedded within the eastward-moving convective band from the west. ..Smith.. 04/14/2018
  12. Supercell near Gardner has some rotation and a definitive hook/notch. On a beeline to go straight through the heart of the metro. Hopefully it doesn't organize any further.
  13. Things starting to look a lot more cellular along the entirety of the dryline from KS down into TX. Will be interesting to see how things evolve. A bit worried about the WAA crapvection that is developing and its thermodynamic impact...
  14. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN MADISON...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES... At 417 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Lake Fort Smith, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations in or near the path include... Mountainburg... Elkins... Winslow... Chester... St. Paul... Wesley... Saint Paul... Boston... Pettigrew... Brentwood... Japton... Lake Fort Smith... Witter... Fern... Goshen... Georgetown... Bidville... Crosses... Combs... Locke...
  15. I'm saying it has a classic look. Perhaps I shouldn't have used that analogy, since some people in here get really butt hurt real fast over semantics.
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