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jojo762

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  1. jojo762

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    **Language** Apparent video of tornado as it approached Linwood. I cannot imagine how it would feel to have this approaching your house.
  2. jojo762

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Some of that damage near Linwood KS is pretty intense... very likely high-end EF3 to EF4... which would make sense. GTG shear when I was south of it was 180mph at times.
  3. jojo762

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Currently on storm right now... was less than a quarter mile away when south of lawrence... was in southern edge of circulation. INTENSE RFD. Currently trying to catch back up on K10.
  4. jojo762

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    All that messy crap everyone is talking about is north of the warm front/OFB... it’s irrelevant. Better storms will initiate soon along the cold front and dryline further west and south.
  5. jojo762

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    #HeadSouth is easily the chase target for today.
  6. jojo762

    May 27-29 Severe Potential

    Everything I’ve seen looked like widespread EF2/3 caliber damage. But I’d venture to bet there is some area(s) with worse damage that would warrant a higher EF-rating. That tends to happen frequently with these type of events.
  7. jojo762

    May 27-29 Severe Potential

    I would fully expect to see significant damage similar to or worse than that picture from Celina, OH with large housing debris scattered all over the roadway by morning. You don’t see CC drops all the way to 20,000 feet very often.
  8. jojo762

    May 27-29 Severe Potential

    Kind of looks like insulation?? With a large piece of metal wrapped around the light pole.
  9. jojo762

    May 27-29 Severe Potential

    Damage not that bad?? We had a 65dbz debris ball on REFLECTIVITY going through a metro area for godsake with debris lofted on CC to ~20KFT. This was a significant tornado... Now hopefully there was no significant loss of life...
  10. jojo762

    May 27-29 Severe Potential

    60dbz debris ball... again... Oh my god.
  11. jojo762

    May 27-29 Severe Potential

    Circled area would indicate debris being lofted by tornado in Dayton metro... area indicated by arrow would appear to possibly be debris exiting the storm..?
  12. jojo762

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Meanwhile in Nebraska.
  13. jojo762

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Wow. Talk about repositioning after obs analysis. Good job! Think I’m going to position in the DDC area for today, many similarities to 5/17 for SW KS. Hope a storm or two can manage to go up. Overall setup would seem to favor isolated supercells exploding near the diffuse dryline across SW KS as subtle height falls and a 50+kt H5 jet streak eject into the highly moist/unstable, and weakly capped warm sector. High risk, high reward setup for sure. Storms may not form, but if one or two does, it’ll probably be a discrete supercell capable of all severe hazards, owing to strong instability/shear combo and a strengthening low-level jet.
  14. jojo762

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    While it is not a perfect setup by any means... it would appear that Tuesday is setting up to be the grand finale to this week and a half run of plains severe chances. Discrete modes appear to be highly favored, and early initiation does not seem to be super likely attm with an EML in place east of the sharpening dryline (largely because tomorrow is not progged to have massive amounts of convection like the last few days have). Low-level wind profiles could be a little better imo, but they will be more than adequate enough to get the job done. Numerous discrete/semi-discrete supercells appear likely east of the dryline from NEB/IA into KS and possibly Oklahoma by mid-late afternoon Tuesday as a substantial 70kt H5 wave ejects into the warm sector, all severe hazards are likely, possibly including all significant severe hazards. Should be noted that details will probably change to some degree in regard to magnitude and location of threats.
  15. jojo762

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Not sure why they went with a MDT risk really, just as I wasn’t sure why they went with a 10% TOR yesterday. Environment doesn’t seem to imply a moderate risk type setup to me, despite that it is (much) more impressive than yesterday. 12z DDC RAOB depicted a fairly weak cap, but downstream soundings (such as 12z AMA) seem to indicate a more pronounced EML will advect into the area. Most CAMs seem to indicate at least a couple/few hours with a few discrete/semi-discrete storms. Anything that is discrete today could certainly produce with the environment at hand... But if convection evolution is anything close to what it was yesterday, there would be a minimal tornado risk. Have to work today, so taking the day off from chasing. Might go to western KS on Monday and hope something goes up but not sure, as minimal capping will exist and the jet streak begins to impinge on the dryline, any storm along the dryline tomorrow could produce all severe hazards. Better chase prospects coming on Tuesday.
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