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About jojo762

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  1. From the early comments in the main thread looks like we have #MegaSandy2.0 on our hands, fellas.
  2. Recon on its way to the “center” of PTC9 soon.
  3. NHC initiating advisories on PTC #9 at 5pm EDT.
  4. Was just stating if you did, that would be the result. Not gonna take too much of a wobble to the right (like we see with the latest recon data) to cause a miss. Doubt it misses OBX, but it is certainly possible.
  5. If you extrapolate that curve to the northeast just a tad more the center of the eye is going to miss bald head island, and quite possibly the entire NC coast.
  6. 110mph is very generous for this storm basing off of recon and obs, imagine they might be keeping it that high for messaging reasons (so the public doesn’t think the threat is over)... My best guess is closer to 90mph.
  7. Seems like shear and continental dry air is starting to already do a number on the western half of Dorian.
  8. Latest recon pass would seem to indicate that Dorian *may* have reached Cat 3 strength again. Max FL winds ~115kts... SFMR winds, however are lagging behind at ~90kts. Dropsonde in the NW eyewall was relatively impressive though with lowest 150mb averaging out at 105kt.
  9. Perhaps this is only short term, but the eye of Dorian has gotten notably more symmetric and circular the past hour. Doesn't have too much more to go until it’s at Cat 3 intensity again - and I’d expect it to on the basis of the structural improvements we’ve seen throughout today - in addition to its location over the Gulf Stream overnight on its approach to the Carolinas.
  10. HMON restrengthens Dorian back to near Cat 4 intensity before slamming it into the SC coast. Edit: beat me to it
  11. Dorian has markedly improved this morning on IR... deep convection seems to be firing around most of the center, and the eye is definitely wrapping up a bit more.
  12. The damage I’ve seen out of the Abacos is easily some of the worst hurricane damage I’ve ever seen personally, up there with what you’d expect with significant tornado damage imo (in terms of just utter devastation, not in terms of EF-indicators and blah blah blah). Of course, their buildings probably aren’t the most amazing structures ever created - but it is still stunning. Reminiscent of Mexico Beach last year, except on a much more vast scale.
  13. Unsure if this should be posted in the main thread, or if it has been posted already... but the damage is unimaginably bad in Abaco Island.
  14. This isn’t going to happen... - signed every single NWP model.