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About jojo762

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  1. Interesting scenario for KC on Monday as it appears we *might* end up in the "screw zone" for this winter storm. Something that makes this forecast particularly challenging is the sharp gradient between double-digit snow potential and near-zero snow potential. Additionally, 12z guidance was split between two camps. One camp (mostly global models) has cold air shunted up a bit further north of the city, while most 12z hi-res guidance has cold air, and thus the freezing-line, much further south by 12z Monday. Most global models have KC in the mid/upper 30s range, while most hi-res guidance is colder -- more so in the 29-32 range. If hi-res guidance is sniffing something out that the globals are not seeing, we could have a fairly high-impact winter storm on our hands for most of the metro area, and almost certainly for areas north of I-70.
  2. Looking like we are gonna finish near 4” of snow where I’m at in KC. Dad in Overland Park said they had about 5-6”. Not a bad storm for most of us, in one way or another.
  3. Here in KC. Looks like EAX shows 4.4” of snow for my location. Honestly I’d be surprised if we didn’t end up with more. Not expecting too much ice accumulation here. Would love for the ECMWF to verify — we’d likely end up with around 8” if it did. Looks like the 18z HRRR bumped snow totals down a notch...
  4. Anticipating some snow/sleet followed by a decent amount of freezing rain tomorrow morning into around noon in KC.. Some models want to hold onto freezing SFC temps into the mid afternoon, but i'm not so sure that'll come to fruition. Fairly excited about the potential for an impressive storm on Friday, but still too far out to be that excited just yet.
  5. Hi-res guidance in good agreement for a fairly sizable snow event for the northern 2/3'rds of Oklahoma, and into the higher-terrain of NW Arkansas. Widespread 4-8" totals being shown verbatim on the accumulation plots, but it appears probable that warm'ish ground temps will probably hold most of those totals back a couple/few inches (especially with southward extent).
  6. I love snow and winter weather, but retrospectively I actually really dislike it. All the potholes snow/ice create around here are abysmal... Omaha can keep their darn impossible snowfall forecast. Jokes aside, i'm not sure whether to be optimistic or pessimistic about the chances of a light dusting of snow on Saturday morning here in KC... Most of it would likely fall after I get up out of bed, so it'd be at least some form of entertainment for a bit. But thinking temps might *still* be to warm to definitively say we would get a snow p-type versus light rain.
  7. Looks like Buffalo, Oklahoma ended up with the bullseye of 14" from the storm. It's been nearly a decade, or even more, since we last got something like that here -- I believe. After the next week or so of mild, mostly sunny weather, it appears we'll have multiple chances for large storms across the plains into mid-month and beyond.
  8. NAM is quite bullish compared to every other model, but it shows over a foot of snow west of ICT from wednesday into thursday. I expect anything from a dusting to an inch here in KC (an inch might be pretty bullish though lol).
  9. It’s somewhat ironic. GFS moved away from being the lone wolf showing no precip across the C plains because of its different depiction of the S/W crashing from Montana... and now the other guidance is shifting toward what the GFS had been showing. Needless to say there’s tons of uncertainty, hoping to escape with at least some snow accumulation here in KC.
  10. Looks like 00z ECMWF/UKMET/GEM all trended drier...
  11. It is too early to get into specifics given fairly low confidence in the forecast... But, we are certainly coming into a pattern that will be interesting to watch evolve in model land the next few days as it seems entirely possible that someone in our region could get, by today's terms, a blockbuster snowstorm. UKMET/EURO are both fairly aggressive, but with inconsistent solutions. GFS is more consistent, and dry for all of us. CMC, as usual, is a compromise between the two solutions. This isn't me just being a weenie, but I *certainly* know which models my money would be on in the D5-7 time range...
  12. The ease of seeing the mesovortices rotate around the eyewall on shortwave IR *at night* is... something.
  13. 137kt FL was measured in the southern eyewall, not too surprising given current motion.