jojo762

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  1. Hmmm... Euro seemingly shows this, when looking at morning/early afternoon QPF; but vectors and storm motions seem to indicate that any junky early stuff *could* lift north of the warm front, negating any deleterious impact to the warm sector. I definitely agree with the potential problem of how far north the warm front can retreat, especially with a possible morning MCS and/or plenty of elevated convection. Taking the Euro verbatim -- that would be a historic outbreak. Parameters aside, synoptic-scale (what's important at Day 6) specs on the euro are currently better than most outbreaks in that region. Doubt that it holds serve as is, especially given that this wave basically didn't exist a few runs ago, but we'll see.
  2. Euro almost always wins in these situations, as the GFS is usually too fast with systems east of the Rockies... that being said, that doesn’t mean that the exact conditions the euro currently shows are going to come to fruition. It’s still in the “model lala land” range.
  3. I know its not within the forum region, but the Southeast sub is boring. 12Z Euro is insane for Sunday in AL/MS. 100-110kt 500mb jet streak atop a 60-70kt LLJ, juxtaposed to 67-71 degree dewpoints and steep lapse rates leading to CAPE values on the order of 2000-4000 j/kg @ 21Z. Insane. 12Z GFS is about 9 to 12 hours faster than the ECMWF (go figure)
  4. 12Z Euro continues to depict potential for a high-end severe weather event on Sunday April 12 across mostly Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. 100-110kt 500mb jet streak atop a 60-70kt LLJ, juxtaposed to 67-71 degree dewpoints and steep lapse rates leading to CAPE values on the order of 2000-4000 j/kg. Insane. 12Z GFS is about 9 to 12 hours faster than the ECMWF, leading to a significantly lessened severe threat. If the last few runs of the Euro were to verify, we would be dealing with a historic tornado outbreak, if the GFS verifies we will probably be dealing with a lower-end severe threat.
  5. I am pretty optimistic about late-April though. Not like that is anything surprising, but still... CFS loves late April/early May, severe wx dashboard is lighting up like a Christmas tree for that time frame.
  6. Looks like the "early next week" trough (cut-off low) got pushed back by about four to five days, even so it is more likely than not that either the trough de-amplifies significantly INVOF the four corners, OR dives south into Mexico, so as far as a central/southern plains threat is considered, this is toast; Dixie Alley is a different matter however. Compounding this, a cold-front crashes across the central and southern plains on Wednesday evening and into Thursday, muting any potential threat regardless of the mid/upper level pattern. So that is a swing and a miss for some early April action. To make matters worse, the pattern becomes... really boring on the global models into at least mid-April. Should be noted, however, that substantial differences exist with respect to the mid/upper level pattern between the 12Z Euro and GFS by day 8+. GFS shows a ridge off the coast of California while the Euro shows a substantial trough approaching the southwestern CONUS.
  7. Nobody has posted in here in quite awhile, so guess i'll try and kick start some 2020 severe season discussion. Looks like a fairly boring pattern will exist until at least early next week, Operational models and Ensembles have been persistent on showing a western trough ejecting into the plains at some point early next week, so that will be something to pay attention to. As of right now moisture return is seasonably impressive on most models -- but timing is an issue in model land-- this will change to some degree given that it is about a week-plus out. Beyond that, it look's like we'll have another few-day period of quiescent weather... Followed by what *could be* an interesting period in mid-April. Stay tuned.
  8. The scope of these large systems is really ridiculous sometimes... precipitation being produced in varying degrees from far northern Wisconsin, to near Houston (1100 to 1200 total miles as the crow flies).
  9. Inflow is really ripping in both those storms.
  10. The shot of those vehicles before ten seconds and the shot of the tree at ten seconds say all you need to know about this tornado...
  11. Given the evolution of the storms in W IL, going to imagine lapse rates never really recovered — providing limited instability. Plenty of amazing shear throughout the column, maybe just too much given the assumed thermodynamic profile.
  12. Numerous tornado warnings in progress. A pair of discrete supercells in W IL, things getting going — took longer than we all anticipated, but things are happening...
  13. Cells east of DVN are really starting to look good. One of them just went TOR warned.
  14. That'll probably change in the next couple hours. Better forcing is still lagging the dryline/PCF, evident by the CU field across E KS.
  15. KDVN VWP currently exhibits 84kt 0-6km shear coupled with ~400m^2/s^2 0-1KM SRH... Assuming the wind profile is similar in SE IA south of the warm front, the atmosphere is absolutely primed for discrete supercells capable of producing numerous significant tornadoes. EDIT: 90/80 probs on that PDS watch.