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jojo762

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  1. Also, worth noting that the NAM has progressively trended toward the dryline being further west by 00z over the last couple days of runs... Perhaps putting part of Central OK in play, 18Z NAM also showed less veered surface flow by 00z, with even some SE surface winds near the quasi triple-point in NC/NE OK. 18Z NAM verbatim shows a significant parameter space developing over portions of MO along/near the warm front, which is something that will need to be watched. Lots of uncertainty regarding the ceiling of TOR potential at this point, but what does seem certain is we will get significant severe storms at least along the Cold Front and Warm Front, and possibly the dryline as well, capable of giant hail and damaging winds and perhaps tornadoes. Just for some classic uncle NAM laughs, not 100% sure if this is really contaminated as convection is fairly far away from this point-sounding... Here is an 18Z NAM sounding across SC MO at 7pm Saturday along the warm front.
  2. TSA is forecasting hail up to the size of grapefruits, 80mph winds, and tornadoes... Run of the mill type stuff, ya know.
  3. Highest tornado threat would probably reside in two different regimes. 1. Near any weakly-defined/quasi triple-point that may develop where surface winds may be at least slightly more backed, and 2. with any residual outflow boundary left over from overnight/morning convection. Both of these are details that will not be resolved until the day-of. Thermodynamics will be overwhelming favorable for low-level stretching with widespread 0-3KM CAPE of 100-250J/KG, so you can imagine what any left over vorticity pool or OFB could do with that... Lastly, 100% agree with the splitting storms idea as hodographs much above 2KM, in even the best of the various point forecast soundings, are straight line. Likewise, any left-splits (in addition to right movers) are likely to be prolific hail producers with the impressively steep lapse rates of 8.0-9.0C/KM helping result in the extreme instability, SHIPS parameter is highly indicative of giant hail as well. As details evolve, if they evolve in a favorable direction of course, wouldn't be surprised to see a MDT risk for very large hail at some point.
  4. Watching storms explode shortly after CI on Saturday will be fun... MLCAPE values approaching nearly 7000J/KG on the 12z NAM across northeast OK by 00Z. Degree of CINH should help storms stay discrete, i'd think, but the dominant storm-mode is still TBD as some uncertainty in what the wind profile will look like exactly still exists. Level of veering throughout the column will have a dramatic effect on storm-mode and attendant threats. TSA currently highlighting potential for significant severe in their AFD, OUN also highlighting potential for giant hail.
  5. And just like that the rotation is gone... Storm is OFD now.
  6. Any potential we had for a larger-scale/more widespread tornado threat seems to be dramatically diminishing, as of now... Nonetheless, still feels like a period, especially on Friday, in which we will see one storm, or two, go berserk within this extreme instability/favorable (for supercells) directional shear environment. Friday looks to have a better shot at this as SFC winds will be backed near the triple point, but low-level flow is progged to be fairly weak in addition to concerns over CI (but given the area of enhanced convergence near the triple-point, I like the chances of CI near there), nonetheless low LCLs and big-league CAPE could accommodate-- to an extent-- for that lack of stronger low-level flow. As has been mentioned numerous times, we have seen in the past what these high CAPE environments are capable of, not that those type of results will be seen this time, just highlighting potential. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding Saturday, so will refrain from much detail on it, but CI looks more likely however have seen a trend toward SFC winds being more veered/ nearly paralleling the front in NE OK/SW MO, with perhaps some more southerly flow in SE/SC OK - wait and see.
  7. Directional shear in any number of forecast soundings picked out along the dryline on both Friday and Saturday is highly indicative/favorable for tornadic supercells with substantial veering with height... some question as to orientation and overall strength of LLJ on at least one of the days - but that won't be resolve until later on... perhaps some slight weaknesses in the 700-500mb layer also being indicated, but again this is something that won't really be nailed down until later. Effective shear is still forecast to be in the 40-60kt range in addition to ESRH of 200-400m2/s2, both of which are more than sufficient for strongly rotating mesocyclones with low-level rotation.
  8. I'll just move this over and start a new thread regarding the upcoming severe potential: A diverse amount of questions remain, each of which could have varying degrees of effects on the threats/impacts/potential areas effected... such as subtle perturbation/Shortwave timing, synoptic boundary location, degree of moisture (low 70s or upper 70s?), and exact orientation of low-level flow, among other things... But fairly strong agreement from the various GEFS members in addition to the deterministic GFS on a robust/higher-end parameter space developing along and east of the dryline (wherever it sets up) on Friday/Saturday evening. As of now per the GEFS and GFS, friday would feature extreme instability, owing to very steep lapse rates and climatologically impressive moisture, sufficient effective shear of 40-50kts, substantial veering with height (especially in the lowest three kilometers AGL) producing a wind profile that is highly favorable for tornadic supercells... Big question for friday would appear to be the cap and the typically associated questions that come with it of IF and WHERE storms will/could form. Currently numerous GEFS members do not convect along much of the DL on friday, but several do in addition to the OP-GFS convecting several dryline supercells within a high-end environment... Saturday looks roughly the same as Friday environment-wise (perhaps with low-level winds AGL being a bit more veered than the previous day) BUT convective initiation as of now appears to be much more likely along a large part of the dryline on saturday per most GEFS members and the OP-GFS showing more substantial QPF than the previous day. Something to note is there is still fairly substantial run-to-run variability on which day *may* bigger or look better, at this point it is important to highlight both days as having higher-impact severe potential. Bottom line at this point... Questions that could dramatically effect the threat-level are still abound... But as of now high-end levels of moisture and instability juxtaposed to a favorable wind profile will likely exist on both Friday and Saturday, or perhaps just one of the days, along and east of wherever the dryline sets up. As of now, population centers would certainly be within the threat areas of potentially high-impact storms.
  9. This is somewhat reminiscent to 2013 imo as well, especially by Friday/Saturday, H5 map isn't exactly the same but has some similarities, notable differences being the presence of a large NE-trough this go around and the central CONUS trough isn't quite as strong, but other features are similar... Thursday looks mildly interesting, but thinking capping will hinder convective development, and therefore any potential it may have, as of now. GFS has trended with a weaker cap on Friday/saturday, so naturally given the progged thermo/kinematic profile, along with only subtle forcing, those days would both probably be fairly interesting if things were to evolve as shown now (doubtful)... We've all seen what these extreme instability/moderate shear environments have been capable of in the past...
  10. I like our chances of seeing at least SOMETHING the end of this week/weekend... At least one day could be fairly impressive, depending on how a myriad of environmental factors evolve. CIPS GEFS analog percentage for Day 6-8 of at least 10 SVR reports. GFS for several runs has been moderately impressive -- to varying degrees, for a variety of reasons -- for Friday specifically, but Thursday and Saturday could feature severe storms as well. A bit too far out to determine potential hazards really, but the wind profile will be quite favorable for supercells with impressive veering with height.
  11. OUN highlighting how models are starting to converge on at least modest, but potentially somewhat strong, W/SW flow atop moist/unstable environment for multi-day severe threat.
  12. Certainly has my interest, at least... any potential southwest flow in late May and into June garners at least some interest. Myriad of factors, as you said, are still up for potential changes.
  13. Yep. EHI is a good measure *only* of conditional storm potential, have to have deep moist convection for it to matter, even so EHI can be misrepresentative of an environment in a plethora of ways. But yeah, boring this next week for the most part... perhaps some potential toward the very end of May into June. In regard to what bjc0303 was mentioning, some hint from the op-GFS of at least a modest trough with SW flow in the May 26-28 time frame, but any other details are nebulous and TBD. Also in regard to the day you are referring too (despite that it is still far out), sure the environment is kinematically (wind speeds with height...shear... SRH, etc) and thermodynamically (lapse rates, moisture, instability, etc) impressive resulting in sky high EHI, but look at forecast soundings.... they show a substantial amount of convective inhibition (CINH). That cap is not breakable if you do not have strong forcing for ascent(which that day does not have, with no noticeable S/W [shortwave] to create lift), and even then so that cap is still fairly substantial even if you do have a moderately strong perturbation, this is why the GFS shows zero convection along the entire dryline in the QPF (precipitation) fields.
  14. Subject to change, but appears we will end up with roughly 108 tornadoes for the May 15-19 period. Feels like it was a bit underwhelming. Didn't really see a memorable day necessarily, and there weren't really any high-end long tracking storms aside from maybe the Elk City supercell, and perhaps the Seiling/Waynoka, OK supercell. Recommend looking up videos for the Seiling tornado, best videos/tornado from the entire sequence imo.
  15. Pretty active four day period. Including 2 ENH risk days (both verified), a MDT risk day (verified), and a High Risk day (Not verified). Next ten days or so look abnormally boring, things begin to pick back up again in late May/early June possibly. Lastly, some neat data from the Elk City tornado from one of the CSWR DOWs: