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jojo762

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  1. 11pm EDT advisory has Cindy as a higher-end 60mph TS... probably could've upped the winds at the last advisory too. Seen quite a few pics on twitter of coastal inland flooding in Louisiana.
  2. Agreement in the HRRR and 3km NAM (yes, I know neither are particularly great at tropics) in the 18hr range of a strengthening storm have me wondering if this thing might have a shot at getting to a higher-end TS, wind wise at least, before landfall. Obs from HH and the bouy referenced above tend to support this general idea of localized stronger sustained winds/gusts.
  3. It's amusing how bad the NAM and NAM nest are with tropical cyclones. 3km NAM develops Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 into a Cat 1 shortly before landfall late Wednesday/early Thursday... I'm reminded of how the NAM/4NAM rapidly strengthened Hermine shortly before landfall as well last year (which did happen, to a degree).
  4. Looks like the supercell cluster near Hays is starting to undergo the process of consolidating cold pools and bowing out.
  5. Ouch... The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Trego County in west central Kansas... Southwestern Ellis County in central Kansas... * Until 245 PM CDT * At 158 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 3 miles south of Riga, or 15 miles southeast of Wakeeney, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and softball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Ellis around 210 PM CDT. Yocemento around 245 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3888 9973 3895 9967 3893 9941 3874 9947 TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 284DEG 13KT 3891 9963 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...4.00IN
  6. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Dodge City KS 152 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017 The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Trego County in west central Kansas... Southwestern Ellis County in central Kansas... * Until 230 PM CDT * At 151 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Riga, or 13 miles southeast of Wakeeney, moving east at 10 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Riga around 205 PM CDT. Ellis around 225 PM CDT. Yocemento around 230 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3888 9973 3902 9974 3900 9939 3874 9947 TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 283DEG 9KT 3892 9967 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...2.50IN
  7. Gonna congeal fast, and I wouldn't want to be in the way of that bow when it first starts to form and still has transient supercell structures within it (i.e, still capable of producing very large hail... possibly baseball sized). The SPC weenie in me wonders if we'll manage to get a PDS SVR watch out of this, seems like a good possibility imo.
  8. As expected, at least by myself, SPC has added a MDT risk area for significant severe winds across portions of KS/OK.
  9. I've been interested in Friday/Saturday on the GFS for quite a few days now. Both seem like days where *if* discrete supercells develop, then a few tornadoes could easily occur given the progged wind fields.
  10. Wouldn't be surprised to see a MDT risk for swaths of destructive winds tomorrow for the current modeled MCS/bow, probably across KS and possibly extending into OK. Impressive owndraft CAPEs are indicative of higher-end wind potential. Interested to see how long stuff stays discrete tomorrow though as the wind profile is very favorable for supercells.
  11. Agree with the bolded portion. These type of systems typically last longer than models indicate it seems, especially with the type of downstream environment progged for tomorrow. This would especially be true if an 80+kt rear-inflow jet developed as David mentioned.
  12. Surprisingly high 60/30 tornado probabilities on the Tornado Watch out for North-Central/Northeastern Nebraska and Western South Dakota. Storms taking off now... Guess we'll see how long a discrete mode can persist.
  13. Multiple discrete, tornado warned supercells in progress. This setup should break the 2017 tendency of discrete supercells not doing discrete supercell things, e.g, producing tornadoes.
  14. Rare to see such a potent setup in this area. Terrain is pretty much ideal for chasing too, road network is meh I'd assume... but should be an interesting next few hours.
  15. Well looking like our final legit chances in the central plains could be taking shape next week possibly into next weekend, still some timing differences between the euro/GFS, but appears there will be several opportunities for severe storms for at least the northern plains, but probably extending into the central plains on a couple days as well. EML is progged to be quite strong so that will play a big role in how things evolve, but prospects look fairly good with an unseasonably strong mid-level trough ejecting into the N/C Plains. After this period remains a bit uncertain ATTM... But currently leaning toward the inevitable, and dreaded, death ridge developing by ~June 20, likely ending any legit severe/tornado prospects for the central/southern plains for quite some time.