jojo762

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  1. General idea in mid/long-range guidance is that there could be a solid trough in the southern Plains next week... Not much agreement on timing or degree of moisture ATTM, but at least its something to watch?
  2. Brady, TX could take a beating from this one in a half-hour or so.
  3. Theoretical chase target today is Eden, TX... basing on current obs I may adjust a bit further east toward Brady, but either way today looks primed for several strong supercells along the stalled frontal boundary in Central TX. 12z RAOBs from MAF and EPZ depicted 850-500mb lapse rates of 7.8-8.0 C/km, this combined with a strongly mixed PBL by late afternoon will create moderate CAPE profiles along the boundary, this thermo profile juxtaposed with elongated mid-level hodographs will result in supercells capable of very large hail shortly after initiation. The tornado threat is very minimal today owing to very weak 0-3km shear. Given the strong mid-level winds and relatively dry low to mid-levels this type of setup could yield a fairly beautiful high-based supercell or two...
  4. I'd take it... 2013 was VERY boring until the last two weeks in May -- which saw NINE Moderate risk days across the Plains, with some very notable tornadoes thrown in there: Our last official EF5 tornado, in Moore, and the El Reno 302mph, 2.6 mile wide tornado to name a couple.
  5. Extended range guidance looks *very* rough for OK/KS... Some potential for a setup on Friday in Texas as @Chinook alluded to, but still inconsistency in modeling. Looking like we will have a strong STJ influence across the northern Gulf coast for quite sometime, which clearly is not favorable for moisture return into the plains. Ultimately there will probably be some SLGT-risk caliber setups in TX the next 10-14 days, but probably nothing superbly obvious. FWIW (which isn't much), latest long-range fantasy land guidance suggest it could be well into May until we see another favorable SW-flow setup in the Plains -- yikes.
  6. I'm not going to pull the trigger on saying there will for sure be N TX dryline storms today... But SFC temps sure seem to be running at-forecast or even a smidge above 12z HREF mean temps for 15z. The cloud cover doesn't seem to be having much of an impact -- and it looks like the LLVL clouds could clear out a bit more.
  7. While there are very clearly issues with today's setup (eg. lingering CINH and seasonally marginal moisture) 12z CAMs are really hammering the area INVOF the triple point in southwest/central KS this evening for potential isolated supercell development. IF this does actually happen, it could get pretty interesting if the storm were to become surface-based and lower its base a bit as SRH will be quite conducive for low-level mesocyclones.
  8. Probably going to go out and give tomorrow along the dryline/triple-point in Western KS. Low-level moisture has trended upward a bit in guidance, and all CAMs develop convection along the dryline between 22-00z. Tornado threat is likely fairly minimal due to lack of richer low-level moisture and lingering CINh, but severe weather is quite likely with any sustained, strong updraft given background environment. Would not be totally surprised if a supercell did *try* to produce something around sunset as low-level hodographs will likely be more than sufficient -- 3CAPE is definitely a bit lacking, though, and again the concern for lingering CINh.
  9. Some better agreement by the models today about Wednesday being "the day" for the system to eject into the plains. Admittedly the current forecast guidance would not exactly yield a chaseable setup with questionable moisture, veered/unsubstantial low-levels and potential for a strong cap. Personally not sure that models have a good grasp yet on what to do with this lead wave (that basically did not exist on the Euro until last night's 00z run).
  10. Eh, they aged okay but definitely not great. Late May last year wasn't exactly blockbuster for tornadoes, but there were many chaseable days -- that's all I can really ask for. That Wednesday Andy referenced turned out to be a frustrating day in the TX panhandle/western OK (drove from E KS for what amounting to a bunch of nice looking turkey towers) but some folks got some good structure in southwestern Oklahoma later in the evening.
  11. Nebulous details of moisture quality, shortwave timing and orientation, as well as low/mid-level temps aside, it sure looks like we could see a legit threat of severe weather somewhere across the central/southern plains mid/late-next week as moisture begins to advect northward starting as early as Sunday and a trough develops out west. Beyond that, things probably get fairly boring for a bit as NW/zonal flow becomes dominant across most of the country east of the Rockies.
  12. I remember when we first started talking about that supercell when it was in SE MS... Wild ride. Hopefully folks in front of these significant tornadoes it produced were able to get somewhere safe. Nighttime tornadoes suck..
  13. Hopefully people in the path of this thing were aware...... This could end up being very bad, basing off current velocity and debris signature.
  14. Several nearly bottomed out CC bins... Likely doing significant damage as we speak.