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jojo762

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  1. What a difference a few days make... Just a few model runs ago we had a full on lee-side cyclone with a relatively strong band of frontogenesis to the north resulting in a nearly all-day snow event with an impressive band of snow (what could've been 6"+) somewhere across KS/MO, now we are left with no lee-side cyclone, a fast-moving open wave, and modest mid-level frontogenesis resulting in a few hours of snow with MAYBE 3" for someone, probably north of I70. Sad, after it had looked so good not too long ago. That's anything past 2011 for ya...
  2. Yeah, I ended up with 2-2.5" in Overland Park... accumulated fairly quickly within about 2 1/2 to 3 hours. Always great to go from expecting a dusting to getting a couple inches.
  3. The overall trend has indeed been for the heavier swath of snow to be a bit further south, but that specific run was a bit more dramatic with its shift and knocking down of totals. Likewise the very next run shifted back north. Probably won't have anything nailed down better until Monday night, or even Tuesday when we know where the best frontogenesis is occurring. As per usual with winter systems now, my expectations for this storm have gradually kept declining.
  4. The previous few days of GFS runs all showed KC getting a healthy amount of snow (3"+, something KC hasn't seen in four years)... then the 18Z run comes out and shifts everything further south. Probably just a weird run, but it is definitely odd to see such a shift in a <84 hour forecast.
  5. Wowzers. Not sure i'm really on board the hype train but 00Z GFS went all in on a big-league snow storm for NE KS/ N MO (including the entire KC metro) for Monday night/Tuesday. Widespread double digit totals. Pretty impressive run, to say the least. But if I have learned anything over the past few years, it is to take more of a tempered approach when it comes to model-output for snow... FWIW, 00z GEM also agrees on a decent snow event for generally the same area, but to a much lesser extent than the GFS. Probably worth noting as well that most of the 00z GEFS members disagreed with OP run on the idea of any kind of major event.
  6. It's still free on weather.us ... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/significant-weather.html
  7. 00Z GFS looks like an outlier run for how the trough develops (I.e., no cutoff). Not sure how to take it. Guess we'll see what the EC says later.
  8. Mike Morgan from KFOR already talking about the possibility of wintry precipitation on Christmas, 11 days away. Such a bad representative for mets everywhere, despite being in a state whose flagship university is known for meteorology. "LATEST LOOK at Christmas Day in OKC. This forecast is based on a LOT of different and constantly changing forecasts from about 150 computer models a DAY. General PATTERN of all of these COLDER with MOISTURE POSSIBLE. Still 12 days away but will track it." https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/941163647463813120
  9. Basing off of the relative consistency of the GFS and Euro for the upcoming pattern i'm pretty optimistic about getting some harsh cold and possibly even snow at some point between next week and mid-december. Knowing how these things have evolved the past few years though it'll (the main system(s), whenever it comes through) probably devolve into 33 and rain. Time will tell, but definitely should be some interesting systems/setups coming up.
  10. lol 12z GFS shows a high-impact blizzard in Colorado and some light snow along the I-70 corridor in KS/MO by D7-8. That came out of nowhere. Verbatim the temp profile appears to support more a mix/very cold rain, but still something to glance at I suppose.
  11. Nate

    75kt SFMR readings on the latest pass... FL winds of 95kt.
  12. Hurricane Maria

    Before anyone gets too excited or too high on their throne for thinking Maria is going to effect the ECONUS, it should be noted that the King (Euro) is still much further east. Maria is also likely to be a shell of her former self by the time any potential US impact were to occur as she will be moving over cooler waters in the wake of Jose, in addition to an increase in shear.
  13. Hurricane Maria

    18z GFS brings hurricane conditions to the easternmost outer banks, and TS conditions to far eastern NC. Definitely a good deal further west this run.
  14. Hurricane Maria

    Didn't see the data set from the NHC website... but looks like roughly 120-125kt FL winds in the NW quadrant of Maria per latest recon pass, southeast quad about the same at flight level.
  15. Hurricane Maria

    Yep... that ULL over the SECONUS really is not nearly strong enough to pull Maria in with how far east she will be.
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