STxVortex

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About STxVortex

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRKP
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    Rockport, TX

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  1. I mentioned the probable destruction of Providencia Island a few hours ago, others have earlier in this thread. BTW, in your given twitter link with the video, the comments following the originator's refuted the authenticity of the video, stating that the video was from Puerto Rico in 2017, Hurricane Irma; not Iota sanding off Providencia today, which BTW, is part of Columbia [twit thread all in Spanish of course, are you conversant en Español? No, I'm not going to translate it for you, 'ta 'ueno.]
  2. FYI: Some [more] interesting local Nicaraguan information, pics, maps, links, etc., on the Puerto Cabezas and Wawa* Bar area. Plus a potential local donation channel that is already in operation [since at least Eta], and looks trustworthy: "Salvadora Morales, fundraising for her indigenous community, directly in the path of Eta, now Iota--" https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/16/1996223/-Salvadora-Morales-fundraising-for-her-indigenous-community-directly-in-the-path-of-Eta-now-Iota "On November 3rd, Hurricane Eta hit northeast Nicaragua as a Category 4 hurricane, decimating homes, knocking out power, and causing massive flooding. The community of Wawa Bar returned from evacuating to find tremendous devastation. Salvadora Morales, originally from Wawa Bar and part of the indigenous Miskito community, set up the linked GoFundMe soon after to help her family and their neighbors get the emergency support they need. After setting up the GoFundMe they never imagined that only 2 weeks later, they would be watching another hurricane with Wawa Bar in its path. Hurricane Iota is forecasted to come ashore in the same part of Nicaragua as a category 5 with 160mph winds. The community worries that the structures that survived Eta might not fare as well in Iota, since there hasn’t been much time to repair any damage. Salvadora Morales is a conservation specialist with wide experience working towards solutions for the environmental problems of our world. She co-founded Grupo Quetzalli in Nicaragua, with the mission: “To be agents of change for the conservation of the environment and sustainable development, applying science.” She works with shrimp aquaculture and salt producers to promote best management practices to benefit shorebirds. She coordinates the Point Blue’s Migratory Shorebird Project in Central America. She led the process to establish Ometepe as a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve. She’s worked on the Mesoamerican Alliance of People and Forests initiative, facilitating the development and implementation of indigenous land rights projects. She is a fierce advocate for the people, wildlife, and environment of Nicaragua, and I am honored to call her a colleague and friend. Sharing her GoFundMe page to Daily Kos where I know she can find support, is the least I can do to help her in such a terrible moment. https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-wawa-bar-recover-from-hurricane Thank you for any support you might be able to offer. Even the smallest contribution would be extremely valuable to this devastated community. Funds will be used for the basics like clean water, food, medical supplies, and clothes. " [ * Anybody familiar with Wawa, Ontario, Canada? Used to vacation in Killarney, Ont [family ties], and went up to Wawa a couple of times. An interesting place fifty years ago, Sudbury however was literally a 'moonscape'.]
  3. This incredible Hurricane Iota is going to hit those poor damned Nicaraguans and Hondurans the hardest at the worst time, landfalling after dark, and rage all night long. Many of y'all have experienced similar storms [likely much weaker], at home or at sea or both, and have some concept of what they're going to face. Try to assist the survivors in some way in the coming weeks, they're going to need it. The reports from Providencia Island and others will likely be unimaginable. Anything at sea near the track of Iota is probably on the bottom now [like shrimpers, fishermen].
  4. 0.15909090mph per minute increase [ 35mph/220min ]. Lessee, ~12 hours to landfall, 720 minutes x 0.16mph/min = another 115mph + 140 = 255mph landfall? Iota's actually ~190 miles from landfall, speed 10mph, so even worse... pure runaway WASG conjecture of course.
  5. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml "WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1030 AM EST SUN 15 NOVEMBER 2020 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z NOVEMBER 2020 TCPOD NUMBER.....20-173 " Unless they squeeze something extra in there .
  6. Part of yesterdays recon plan, issued on Saturday and carries through today's plan : FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 73 A. 16/0530Z A. 16/1130Z B. AFXXX 0531A IOTA B. AFXXX 0631A IOTA C. 16/0100Z C. 16/0715Z D. 14.1N 80.8W D. 14.2N 81.6W E. 16/0500Z TO 16/0830Z E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1430Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY [ed: today 16 Nov] : CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
  7. To my eyes, given a comparison between the two sat views [AF304, AF305, Mission #4&5], into IOTA in the link below, TC Iota is making a more WNW course heading than the plain "W" tracking given in recent NHC summaries. NHC 5day tracking page shows a steady W/WSW track, taking Iota well inland and heading for the Pacific. IMFUO, based on a visual satellite eye course, Iota could almost clear that NE'ern Honduran Point and give Guatemala and Belize a scare later on ... unless steering currents I'm not factoring in are at play. https://cyclonicwx.com/recon/item/vdm/
  8. Understood. As a near and coastal dweller I can't imagine having three of these monsters getting anywhere nearby in the period of a few weeks like those poor Nic&Hons are being run over, in friggin November.
  9. At least, the nights are lots longer in friggin November...
  10. Perhaps you meant 135-140mph, not knots? 140kts is 161mph, well above the Cat 5 157mph threshold [factor in 180-200mph gusts and nearly everything in its' path is pau...]. I can't imagine something like your mention of the 1932 Cuba hurricane at 150kt, yikes ! The edges of the likes of Allen, Gilbert, Harvey, et al., were enough for me.
  11. I don't recollect ever seeing an 'area of interest' coincide with an active TC before either. NHC progs a 20% chance of a depression+ forming in the lemon blob x5. But it's 2020, what the hell, go for it... A third hit on Central America , Nicaragua, Honduras, would be a bridge too far for those poor bastids though. PF unimaginable to even think of it, something even worse than the way Louisiana's been clobbered this year with TCs. Tropical Weather Outlook Text Tropical Weather Discussion ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Iota, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.b 1. An area of low pressure could form in a few days over the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur late this week while it moves slowly westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
  12. Well, at least one dedicated stormchaser is apparently back in the hunt, for Zeta this time. I'm effing jealous, dammit ;] . [edit-- I'm surprised he was able to get another rental vehicle --]
  13. I'd be inclined to minimize those models. The NHC is already progging a LA Delta landfall at hurricane strength, which is a slight bump up from earlier forecasts. They now show Zeta at hurricane strength clear across the GOM. The 1700 Forecast Discussion will have the details. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/180131.shtml?cone#contents
  14. Requesting a little information. I'm aware that [most of?] the Hurricane Hunter [53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron "Hurricane Hunters"] operations are currently based at JBSA Lackland in San Antonio. At ~0647h this morning a heavy prop-driven aircraft passed nearly over my house, a rare event [with a 'heavy', normally lots of AF trainers and jets, helos many days ]. Due to socked in local WX thanks to Delta, I didn't see it, low dense ceiling, aviation sounds get tricky. So, I've been digging around at Tropical Tidbits and the USAF HH web [see below]. There was data indicating "AF303 Mission #20 into DELTA" was very close to my location at 1147Z. Hot Damn! this innartoobs stuff is effing amazing [--been in what is now IT/computers since 1969... ;] ]. Can someone verify and let me know if the AF303 equipment was a WC-130J Hercules ? And perhaps what it's altitude, etc. was? It's been interesting sensing Delta's subtle effects on our local weather since ~Tuesday, wind slowly backing SE to N/NW, cloud layers, barometric, etc. Partial data: https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ [Thanks LC] "AF303 Mission #18 into DELTA Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: Finished As of 11:47 UTC Oct 09, 2020: Aircraft Position: 29.20°N 98.20°W Bearing: 270° at 314 kt Altitude: 1766 gpm [gpm? has slipped my mind what this is] Peak 10-second Wind: 17 kt at 49° Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A Aircraft Data Time Series (click to enlarge):" https://tropicaltidbits.com/data/recon_AF303-1826A-DELTA.txt "... 114200 2908N 09741W 5447 05182 0247 -023 //// 038003 006 /// /// 05 114230 2909N 09744W 5602 04967 //// -031 //// 005012 015 /// /// 05 114300 2910N 09747W 5845 04626 //// -013 //// 011015 015 /// /// 05 114330 2911N 09750W 6086 04302 //// +009 //// 007015 015 /// /// 05 114400 2911N 09753W 6324 03992 //// +032 //// 011016 016 /// /// 05 114430 2911N 09755W 6581 03667 //// +056 //// 024015 016 /// /// 05 114500 2911N 09758W 6845 03344 //// +080 //// 032016 016 /// /// 05 114530 2911N 09801W 7118 03020 //// +091 //// 036017 017 /// /// 05 114600 2911N 09804W 7392 02706 //// +104 //// 033017 018 /// /// 05 114630 2911N 09807W 7673 02392 //// +123 //// 035015 016 /// /// 05 114700 2912N 09809W 7959 02083 //// +141 //// 028014 014 /// /// 05 114730 2912N 09812W 8262 01766 //// +152 //// 049016 017 /// /// 05" [series appears to end here, not too far away ] https://www.403wg.afrc.af.mil/About/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/192529/53rd-weather-reconnaissance-squadron-hurricane-hunters/ Thanks y'all .
  15. YBMTI. I saw that, and was going to comment that it had contracted ~20% [35-28] from recent reports.