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STxVortex

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About STxVortex

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRKP
  • Location:
    Rockport, TX

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  1. STxVortex

    Tropical Depression Imelda

    All these current 72 hour/3 day total precip numbers and graphs seem to be excluding TS Imelda's earliest rain effects. That period, which began accumulating on early Tuesday morning in a coastal area SSW of Houston, occurred in a sparsely populated area with few rain gauges. There was a post on page 2 of this thread [w/image, link below], posted without any attribution or details, which image appeared to show a 22.5" precip accum near Surfside, TX as of 8AM-CDT Wednesday. This reading [and later amounts] doesn't seem to be accounted for, if valid, in these later "totals". I think this early Imelda impact on the Brazosport areas may have been overlooked in all the later events in more visible areas. Then again, that "22.5" " value shown may have been just a erroneous 'SWAG'. In any case, TS Imelda will go down as one of those '500 year outliers' that seem to be happening every couple of years now. And the 2019 cyclone season is barely half done., assuming that no season lengthening isn't also occurring... Oh yeah, apparently a piece of Imelda's remnant MCS outflow/frontal activity reached out west along I-10 all the way to San Antonio [~150mi] last night, and did a bunch of damage and dumped quite a bit of [needed] rain.
  2. STxVortex

    Tropical Depression Imelda

    Just crazy precip. IIRC, some early, at landfall and later, rain totals south of those maps showed 20"-30" totals, may have gone higher later [think some images are on this thread earlier]. Those extreme totals were located from near Bay City, SW of Freeport/Surfside [towards Matagorda], along Follette Island, San Luis Pass, West End Galveston Island, and inland near Clute, Oyster Creek, etc. Haven't heard any more about that area, but then much of it is sparsely populated [used to commute it to my Sea Isle beach house].
  3. STxVortex

    Tropical Depression Imelda

    Funny you should mention Cosme/Allison, I remember it well. We've had deluges here from remnant EastPac cyclones that made it over the Sierras. A couple hours ago I did a doubletake, been following [always] the EastPac. Lorena seemed to have a chance of going NE and maybe eventually affecting us. So I pull up a graphic forecast from the CRP WFO and it shows "Hurricane Lorena" labeled in the GOM; WTF? Just a misprint I guess. It also shows Imelda's remnant hammering the middle-Mississippi Valley heading for OH, MI, maybe ONT.
  4. STxVortex

    Tropical Depression Imelda

    You don't have to remind me of Harvey :[ , that SOB followed me inland from one home to the other. Then it dithered around, finally moving SE back out into the GOM, then moving NE towards Houston, LA. Harvey made four or five landfalls, and one 'seafall'[?]. I had a rather intense, close 'relationship' with that mofo, still repairing things like the boat. Harvey was very wind destructive around Corpus, Port Aransas, especially Rockport [eye], but once it moved inland, Houston was on, and stayed in, the 'wet side' of Harvey for days. Y'all know the story. Just prior to joining AMWX here, I read the entire Harvey thread here. I intended to add to it, but am still sidetracked. The Harvey thread was most informative to me, who lived and followed that storm from the edge, I thank y'all.
  5. STxVortex

    Tropical Depression Imelda

    Dare it be stated that we may be facing domestic 'climate change refugees' now? If it were me, and if staying, I'd consider a new form of house construction. One having internal drainage, concrete, ceramic tile surfaces [like an old-old telco UPS battery room], no wood or drywall. Or something radically different, like those all stainless steel loos... I used to periodically work in that region of Texas [Houston area, ~100mi radius], it was and is noticeably wetter than the more arid Central, South, and Deep South [including the Coastal Bend and Brush Country] regions. Commuting back and forth there was usually [most years] a pronounced vegetative dividing line marking where the 'arid' began; usually around Weimar or Shulenberg on I-10, sometimes more east at ~Columbus. The same line on US-59 [now co-desig 'I-69] between Wharton and Refugio.
  6. STxVortex

    Tropical Depression Imelda

    This GOES East TX view seems to show TD Imelda has cloned? There's a weaker circulation to the north [near TX-OK-AR-LA corner], which is where some NOAA maps are showing Imelda's remnant low position. Then there is the mega-MCS now pounding HGX, SE TX, SW LA. That frontal 'barred' feature on the west edge, remarked about previously, merges, 'darts' into the MCS from the WNW and appears to intensify it. Meanwhile the whole HGX complex appears to be drifting south, towards the warm Gulf water. Could Imelda's lower remnant reach into the GOM and regenerate itself overnight? The [saved] gif is too big to upload here, so have a look here [aha, seems to imbed fine]:
  7. STxVortex

    Tropical Storm Jerry

    Ruh-Oh... Alabama, we gots a problem : [Note, FYI, below TS Jerry potential track image, black sharpie extension, has been modified, altered, is fake news. Not to be used for planning decisions, honest... /s]
  8. STxVortex

    Tropical Depression Imelda

    TD Imelda has really got rocking overnight, and not moving much, looks like the CoC is around Tomball, just NW of Houston proper. Up to 8" precip in places, expecting 15"+ through Saturday. Definitely nocturnal intensifying over land, compare the HGX radar loop below with previously posted ones. Soaking the Houston area, lots of wind too. I'm thinking "Brown Ocean Effect", although not sure about local soil moisture; any recent Houston rains? [sure ain't been any around here] Brown_ocean_effect Imelda might end up like 2001's TS Allison's bratty little sister, some similarities.
  9. STxVortex

    Tropical Depression Imelda

    Landfall... TS Imelda, the twelve-hour wonder [0101AM to 0130PM CDT]. Still a severe threat with 15-20" rainfall, with one quarter to a third the rainfall of Hurricane Harvey two years ago. Be lucky to get a trace over here, but the Galveston-Houston area northward are going to get soaked. " 000 WTNT61 KNHC 171827 TCUAT1 Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 130 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD INLAND... NOAA Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that Tropical Storm Imelda made landfall near Freeport, Texas at 100 PM CDT with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. A National Ocean Service observing site at Freeport, Texas reported a minimum pressure near 1005 mb (29.68 inches) around the time of landfall. SUMMARY OF 130 PM CDT...1830 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 95.3W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown"
  10. STxVortex

    Tropical Depression Imelda

    Since I've been watching this system for days, I started capturing local WFO radar loops yesterday, mostly from CRP. Advised the ex yesterday to get ready for rain and storms, after our very extended drought, she just laughed and said 'no way', relying on the local teevee wxwhizzes. The loop shown below, from 0101AM this morning, really woke me up; with buoy and coastal observations ATT something had begun cooking off. At the time the NHC reports were describing the low as not having any circulation, etc., and a 0-20% chance of development. It clearly did show TC genesis then per the loop, while it was progged to move more NW'ly towards CRP-RKP; it since has moved NNE towards Matagorda-Freeport-HGX.
  11. STxVortex

    Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

    Another very respected scientist and leader stands up for the good people of NOAA, and [too, imo] politely excoriates the incompetent, and sycophantic, who cravenly interfere with the scientists and technicians of NOAA. From the "Scientific American" * : Observations - Leadership In The Age Of The Surreal "Leadership in the Age of the Surreal The professionals at the National Weather Service deserve political leadership that will stand up for them—even when that puts the leaders’ own jobs in jeopardy. .Over the past two weeks, Hurricane Dorian destroyed portions of the Bahamas and posed a major threat to the southeastern U.S., before eventually making landfall in North Carolina. Given that we are in peak hurricane season, this is not an unprecedented story. In today’s age, however, the devastating hurricane became a backdrop to a political farce that, even in retrospect, seems unbelievable. ... [read the whole article at the link] ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S) David Titley David Titley is an affiliate professor of meteorology at Penn State University; Rear Admiral, U.S. Navy (retired); former oceanographer of the navy; former Chief Operating Officer for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; and a member of the Governing Board at the Center for Climate and Security. [ * The "Scientific American", I began subscribing to it ~c. 1968 ]
  12. STxVortex

    Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

    No rational, logical, science-related or based US government policies will be possible until the place is cleaned up, reformed, until the 'swamp' is truly drained out. It's currently mostly controlled by and for anti-science, anti-factual, cultist grifters who act on a far different plane than a patriotic 'for the good of the nation' basis; when not acting on behalf of foreign interests [like RU, MbS, DPRK, etc].
  13. STxVortex

    Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

    An apt quote, but you should attribute it to George Orwell's great [and scary] book, "1984", which I think too few today are aware of. Yet, here we are, nearly living in it. Nineteen Eighty-Four: A Novel, often published as "1984" George Orwell presented a situation where people struggle to live in a atmosphere of deceit under the pervasive rule of "Big Brother". An atmosphere of deceit where "that which is truth" is totally controlled by an authoritatively positioned ruling party. “What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening”
  14. STxVortex

    Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

    The American Meteorological Society, the 'pro mets' professional group, issued a statement of support for the working NOAA staff [below]; especially those of the Birmingham, AL WFO, who corrected the 'Met-in-Chief's' absurd Sharpie forecast and his subsequent doubling down on Sharpiegate. The NOAA upper level management and spokesperson types who folded under that wholly unjustified and corrupt WH political pressure, with that unattributed public rebuke of the Birmingham WFO, should be instantly removed, no later than on 22 Jan 2021. IIRC, NOAA still only has an 'acting' director, not a permanent one, yet another example of the gross negligence of this maladministration [and subservience to VP/RU]. "Only the Best"... https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/about-ams/response-to-noaa-statement/ https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/ "Response to NOAA Statement The American Meteorological Society fully supports our colleagues at NOAA, who consistently put the safety of the American public first and foremost. They work tirelessly employing state of the art science to keep Americans safe. With respect to the press release that was issued by NOAA on Friday, 6 September, regarding the forecast of Hurricane Dorian, AMS believes the criticism of the Birmingham forecast office is unwarranted; rather they should have been commended for their quick action based on science in clearly communicating the lack of threat to the citizens of Alabama.
  15. STxVortex

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Rarely mentioned is the sheer size of Dorian now, which now has a "hurricane force" windfield diameter of more than 230 miles, with a "tropical storm force" windfield diameter of 620 miles. That is a big cyclone, whether it's "tropical" now or not. The destruction is spread over a much larger area now than in the Bahamas, of course at much less intensity. I'm waiting to see those "total storm energy content" numbers at various stages of Dorian's existence [or whatever the scientific name is]. The post-storm official analysis reports should be interesting [assuming 'nobody' jacks around with them...]. Dorian's current Nova Scotia energy content might be similar to it's Bahamas days, just spread out more. I assume that at Dorian's present rapid forward movement speed [~30mph], that that 'additive effect' on wind speeds in certain quadrants becomes effective too. So the wind damage potential is enhanced. "000 WTNT35 KNHC 072346 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 59A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...DORIAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA... ...VERY STRONG WINDS AFFECTING MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...45.0N 62.9W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from East of Bar Harbor to Eastport Maine has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... ... DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian was estimated near latitude 45.0 North, longitude 62.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is racing northeastward near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. After that, a turn toward the east-northeast is expected. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should continue to move over Nova Scotia during the next few hours, then move over the Gulf of St. Lawrence near Prince Edward Island tonight. The cyclone should then pass near or over northern Newfoundland and eastern Labrador late tonight or Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts, and these winds are occuring primarily over water. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken during the next couple of days, and it is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by Sunday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the south of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). Hart Island, Nova Scotia, recently reported a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). ... NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila "
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