• Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About STxVortex

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Location:
    Rockport, TX

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Nothing has changed, same forecast all the time, 90deg+ highs, 77-85 lows, offshore SST's 81-86deg, inshore higher. Most stations-of-record have recorded 90deg+ temps every day for 90+ days this summer. This is what Imelda, possibly Karen and/or a potential Melissa has to feed on, 27-31degC GOM bathwater: Corpus area Observations, incl GOM
  2. Indeed, 'sauna water'! As a surfer and sailor around South Padre [on that radar image, due east of Brownsville], water temps in the upper 80deg/lower90's, plus sun, with exertion would get you overheated. We [kids too] swam the very warm and saline Laguna Madre, the GOM surf, and would sail offshore 10-15 miles to swim the warm open bluewater. Until I hooked my first Great White shark... :] a young one, only about 7-8 feet long, she had beautiful dentition ^^^^. :]] If she's still out there, she's probably 16'+ now.
  3. Just for chuckles, here's a comparison of the NOAA WSR-88D radar long range base reflectivity scans of the proto-TS Imelda and the current TS Karen. The scans are from the CRP and JUA WFO's, IIRC the LR radar image scan diameter is ~500 miles. Note that the well-formed Imelda image is from about 11 hours before it's 'official' TS designation, but it wasn't being closely monitored att [surrounding gauges indicated baro falls and circulating windfield]. Imelda looked the part, but only brought an eventful rainfall and not much wind. If Karen eventually gets to the GOM it might be another major in all parameters. Pre-TS Imelda TS Karen
  4. NHC is now mentioning a "Disturbance 1" near the northeastern tip of Yucatan, it has a 10%/2day-20%/5day chance of becoming TD Melissa or 100L. I'd bet that this is the same wave that had been appearing on the earlier forecasts to the ESE of Jamaica and was dropped a couple days ago. Looks to be headed for Veracruz or Tampico, MX, but I'll just get a little nervous anyway :] . Anything around the very warm Bay of Campeche at this time of year has a chance of cooking off. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, on Tropical Storm Karen, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea, and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Lorenzo located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. 1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is located near the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. This system is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible while it moves slowly westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next several days before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico late Friday or Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Forecaster Zelinsk
  5. All these current 72 hour/3 day total precip numbers and graphs seem to be excluding TS Imelda's earliest rain effects. That period, which began accumulating on early Tuesday morning in a coastal area SSW of Houston, occurred in a sparsely populated area with few rain gauges. There was a post on page 2 of this thread [w/image, link below], posted without any attribution or details, which image appeared to show a 22.5" precip accum near Surfside, TX as of 8AM-CDT Wednesday. This reading [and later amounts] doesn't seem to be accounted for, if valid, in these later "totals". I think this early Imelda impact on the Brazosport areas may have been overlooked in all the later events in more visible areas. Then again, that "22.5" " value shown may have been just a erroneous 'SWAG'. In any case, TS Imelda will go down as one of those '500 year outliers' that seem to be happening every couple of years now. And the 2019 cyclone season is barely half done., assuming that no season lengthening isn't also occurring... Oh yeah, apparently a piece of Imelda's remnant MCS outflow/frontal activity reached out west along I-10 all the way to San Antonio [~150mi] last night, and did a bunch of damage and dumped quite a bit of [needed] rain.
  6. Just crazy precip. IIRC, some early, at landfall and later, rain totals south of those maps showed 20"-30" totals, may have gone higher later [think some images are on this thread earlier]. Those extreme totals were located from near Bay City, SW of Freeport/Surfside [towards Matagorda], along Follette Island, San Luis Pass, West End Galveston Island, and inland near Clute, Oyster Creek, etc. Haven't heard any more about that area, but then much of it is sparsely populated [used to commute it to my Sea Isle beach house].
  7. Funny you should mention Cosme/Allison, I remember it well. We've had deluges here from remnant EastPac cyclones that made it over the Sierras. A couple hours ago I did a doubletake, been following [always] the EastPac. Lorena seemed to have a chance of going NE and maybe eventually affecting us. So I pull up a graphic forecast from the CRP WFO and it shows "Hurricane Lorena" labeled in the GOM; WTF? Just a misprint I guess. It also shows Imelda's remnant hammering the middle-Mississippi Valley heading for OH, MI, maybe ONT.
  8. You don't have to remind me of Harvey :[ , that SOB followed me inland from one home to the other. Then it dithered around, finally moving SE back out into the GOM, then moving NE towards Houston, LA. Harvey made four or five landfalls, and one 'seafall'[?]. I had a rather intense, close 'relationship' with that mofo, still repairing things like the boat. Harvey was very wind destructive around Corpus, Port Aransas, especially Rockport [eye], but once it moved inland, Houston was on, and stayed in, the 'wet side' of Harvey for days. Y'all know the story. Just prior to joining AMWX here, I read the entire Harvey thread here. I intended to add to it, but am still sidetracked. The Harvey thread was most informative to me, who lived and followed that storm from the edge, I thank y'all.
  9. Dare it be stated that we may be facing domestic 'climate change refugees' now? If it were me, and if staying, I'd consider a new form of house construction. One having internal drainage, concrete, ceramic tile surfaces [like an old-old telco UPS battery room], no wood or drywall. Or something radically different, like those all stainless steel loos... I used to periodically work in that region of Texas [Houston area, ~100mi radius], it was and is noticeably wetter than the more arid Central, South, and Deep South [including the Coastal Bend and Brush Country] regions. Commuting back and forth there was usually [most years] a pronounced vegetative dividing line marking where the 'arid' began; usually around Weimar or Shulenberg on I-10, sometimes more east at ~Columbus. The same line on US-59 [now co-desig 'I-69] between Wharton and Refugio.
  10. This GOES East TX view seems to show TD Imelda has cloned? There's a weaker circulation to the north [near TX-OK-AR-LA corner], which is where some NOAA maps are showing Imelda's remnant low position. Then there is the mega-MCS now pounding HGX, SE TX, SW LA. That frontal 'barred' feature on the west edge, remarked about previously, merges, 'darts' into the MCS from the WNW and appears to intensify it. Meanwhile the whole HGX complex appears to be drifting south, towards the warm Gulf water. Could Imelda's lower remnant reach into the GOM and regenerate itself overnight? The [saved] gif is too big to upload here, so have a look here [aha, seems to imbed fine]:
  11. Ruh-Oh... Alabama, we gots a problem : [Note, FYI, below TS Jerry potential track image, black sharpie extension, has been modified, altered, is fake news. Not to be used for planning decisions, honest... /s]
  12. TD Imelda has really got rocking overnight, and not moving much, looks like the CoC is around Tomball, just NW of Houston proper. Up to 8" precip in places, expecting 15"+ through Saturday. Definitely nocturnal intensifying over land, compare the HGX radar loop below with previously posted ones. Soaking the Houston area, lots of wind too. I'm thinking "Brown Ocean Effect", although not sure about local soil moisture; any recent Houston rains? [sure ain't been any around here] Brown_ocean_effect Imelda might end up like 2001's TS Allison's bratty little sister, some similarities.
  13. Landfall... TS Imelda, the twelve-hour wonder [0101AM to 0130PM CDT]. Still a severe threat with 15-20" rainfall, with one quarter to a third the rainfall of Hurricane Harvey two years ago. Be lucky to get a trace over here, but the Galveston-Houston area northward are going to get soaked. " 000 WTNT61 KNHC 171827 TCUAT1 Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 130 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD INLAND... NOAA Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that Tropical Storm Imelda made landfall near Freeport, Texas at 100 PM CDT with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. A National Ocean Service observing site at Freeport, Texas reported a minimum pressure near 1005 mb (29.68 inches) around the time of landfall. SUMMARY OF 130 PM CDT...1830 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 95.3W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown"
  14. Since I've been watching this system for days, I started capturing local WFO radar loops yesterday, mostly from CRP. Advised the ex yesterday to get ready for rain and storms, after our very extended drought, she just laughed and said 'no way', relying on the local teevee wxwhizzes. The loop shown below, from 0101AM this morning, really woke me up; with buoy and coastal observations ATT something had begun cooking off. At the time the NHC reports were describing the low as not having any circulation, etc., and a 0-20% chance of development. It clearly did show TC genesis then per the loop, while it was progged to move more NW'ly towards CRP-RKP; it since has moved NNE towards Matagorda-Freeport-HGX.
  15. Another very respected scientist and leader stands up for the good people of NOAA, and [too, imo] politely excoriates the incompetent, and sycophantic, who cravenly interfere with the scientists and technicians of NOAA. From the "Scientific American" * : Observations - Leadership In The Age Of The Surreal "Leadership in the Age of the Surreal The professionals at the National Weather Service deserve political leadership that will stand up for them—even when that puts the leaders’ own jobs in jeopardy. .Over the past two weeks, Hurricane Dorian destroyed portions of the Bahamas and posed a major threat to the southeastern U.S., before eventually making landfall in North Carolina. Given that we are in peak hurricane season, this is not an unprecedented story. In today’s age, however, the devastating hurricane became a backdrop to a political farce that, even in retrospect, seems unbelievable. ... [read the whole article at the link] ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S) David Titley David Titley is an affiliate professor of meteorology at Penn State University; Rear Admiral, U.S. Navy (retired); former oceanographer of the navy; former Chief Operating Officer for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; and a member of the Governing Board at the Center for Climate and Security. [ * The "Scientific American", I began subscribing to it ~c. 1968 ]