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Major Hurricane Ida


WxWatcher007
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Peak season is approaching and it's looking like it in the Atlantic, with three named systems (Fred, Grace, Henri) recently and more likely coming in the next week. Invest 99L was designated today by the NHC and although it only has 60% 5 day odds, the guidance in totality has a very strong signal for TC genesis, and more concerning, a very conducive environment for development in the Gulf should the system organize sufficiently. Let's begin a more targeted discussion. 

nMAPfwl.png

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave 
currently located over the central Caribbean Sea.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low 
if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late 
this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over 
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Invest 99L (Caribbean Disturbance)

Worst time of year for any TC to reach the northern GOM regardless of gulf loop current position and eddy proximity. The entirety of the northern coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle is ≥30°C; its profile extending several hundred miles out from shoreline with a very large surface area in the western GOM. A slow moving or stalled system can still upwell and lower its maximum potential intensity, but from the highest of known intensity potential here. Even a large TC with decent motion is only limited by the atmospheric environment which it is contained, interaction with airmass, structure, shear, etc.. Thermodynamic profiles such as these are essentially overkill this time of year until we start seeing cold fronts reach the GOM in late September/October, or numerous TCs decrease heat content.
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That being said, even a slow moving large TC could stall over the central GOM for several days and likely still remain a major hurricane if under a favorable atmospheric environment. The gulf loop current extends all the way up to the Mississippi River's discharge current at present. So there is a very a deep 26°C isotherm from the Yucatán Channel up to the shallow shelf waters near Louisiana. Really the entire GOM has good depth of heat content, but obviously that absurd loop current profile is like the NW Caribbean.
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Waking up this morning to more disturbing model trends. The GFS has now consistently shown run after run, 99L becoming a major hurricane landfall in the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast region. The EURO also shows 99L becoming a significant storm, and shows another powerful Cape Verde hurricane approaching the Caribbean in about a week. The EURO has also shown this for a few runs now.

I'm reminded of when Harvey was nothing more than a wave in the Caribbean, yet models began consistently showing a major hurricane approaching the Texas coast. We could have a problem here.

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37 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

oh cool

another north gulf coast or Texas storm

boring 

Seems like people care more about the east coast because it's more rare than a hurricane hit in the gulf..

This forum was really active last week tracking Henri.

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2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

My understanding, 6Z models get least AMDAR/ACARS (upper air wind, heights and temp data) because not many airplanes flying middle of the night/early morning Americas/Western Europe. But 6Z Euro ensembles have stopped trending East.

6Z_99L_EuroEnsembles.PNG

 

We could always hope for a Bret '99 situation, where maybe it strikes a very sparsely populated region like Padre Island or something. But that would have to pin the needle on the thread just right.

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4 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

We could always hope for a Bret '99 situation, where maybe it strikes a very sparsely populated region like Padre Island or something. But that would have to pin the needle on the thread just right.

Bret struck the least populated county, IIRC, (Kenedy with one 'n' IIRC) on the Atlantic or Gulf Coasts.  I did hear the massive King Ranch lost a lot of cattle, from wind, not surge.

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Heh, 99L does not appear to be wasting any time getting organized today. Note the sharpening of the wave axis and evident mid level circulation developing. If these trends continue, location of low level vortex / TCG is going to be sooner ahead of schedule than yet modeled. This would give credence to more northerly clusters of track ensembles, but of course still all unknowns until we have a CoC to track and better model initializations.
d016e84b2d09108d27d2ba6f1315c452.gif

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33 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Bret struck the least populated county, IIRC, (Kenedy with one 'n' IIRC) on the Atlantic or Gulf Coasts.  I did hear the massive King Ranch lost a lot of cattle, from wind, not surge.

Yeah that’s why they had to partner up with Ford to make money off city people who want a rugged image. I think they are doing better now. 

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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Heh, 99L does not appear to be wasting any time getting organized today. Note the sharpening of the wave axis and evident mid level circulation developing. If these trends continue, location of low level vortex / TCG is going to be sooner ahead of schedule that even modeled initiation. This would give credence to more northerly clusters of track ensembles, but of course still all unknowns until we have a CoC to track and better model initializations.
d016e84b2d09108d27d2ba6f1315c452.gif

Looks excellent. These storms are always so much better than CV long trackers. 

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Ida

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