kdxken Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 At least the mid Atlantic isn't killing it either . "The American modeling system projects above-average temperatures in Washington for the next 10 days, at least. If that holds true, the region will have gone a full month with above-normal temperatures, uninterrupted. If the streak of above-normal temperatures reaches 30 days, it will be the longest in more than a decade (since Dec. 11 to Jan. 9 in 2006-2007)." https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/03/what-winter-above-normal-temperatures-have-ruled-washington-days-counting/?utm_term=.732e1512dea4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, kdxken said: At least the mid Atlantic isn't killing it either . "The American modeling system projects above-average temperatures in Washington for the next 10 days, at least. If that holds true, the region will have gone a full month with above-normal temperatures, uninterrupted. If the streak of above-normal temperatures reaches 30 days, it will be the longest in more than a decade (since Dec. 11 to Jan. 9 in 2006-2007)." https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/03/what-winter-above-normal-temperatures-have-ruled-washington-days-counting/?utm_term=.732e1512dea4 Notice the record year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Notice the record year. Big March and April up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Please keep melting, it’s working to facilitate the change. Ray needs a red tag too. The train is boarding.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I’m not trying to be up, down, sideways, diagonal. All I said was next two weeks didn’t look great and they still don’t. That doesn’t mean we can’t sneak something in. My concern was when we flip. Let’s remembwr week 3 also isn’t a slam dunk. However, the good news is that this may be the best week 3 I can remember all season. So hopefully this is a sign....but let’s all be reasonable too. If we see good signals for the next 5-7 days, I think we can assume it’s real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 We are also nearing niño climo where even in super ninos we are offered chances of winter wx. So that’s on our side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: We are also nearing niño climo where even in super ninos we are offered chances of winter wx. So that’s on our side. Anyone with 115,000 posts commands power and respect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Anyone with 115,000 posts commands power and respect First you get the money.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies gone wild week 3. +PNA/-EPO and -NAO. Wonder if that is too quick? Either way, that's refreshing to see. I see your strategy...it's been a wild success! Thanks for the info and updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Big March and April up here. Huge Valentine’s Day here and Town Meeting and St. Patrick’s Day etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m not trying to be up, down, sideways, diagonal. All I said was next two weeks didn’t look great and they still don’t. That doesn’t mean we can’t sneak something in. My concern was when we flip. Let’s remembwr week 3 also isn’t a slam dunk. However, the good news is that this may be the best week 3 I can remember all season. So hopefully this is a sign....but let’s all be reasonable too. If we see good signals for the next 5-7 days, I think we can assume it’s real. My hunch is it flips day 8-10 and never goes back. Or at least doesn’t til some time in March. I’m not buying the relatively great look at day 8-10 is going to go to crap again when the MJO is in phase 8 and the SOI has more likely than not been negative for almost 2 weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 26 minutes ago, dendrite said: Big March and April up here. The winter of blood, sleet, and tears down here. We actually had two 3" sleet storms....try shoveling that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, kdxken said: All those with the standard cold February forecast are jumping all over it. Did anyone anywhere forecast a warm February ? "However, a major stratospheric warming event has begun," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson." AccuWeather's winter forecast, which was released during the late summer of 2018, did not call for a significant and long-lasting downturn in temperatures until late January and more so during February for the eastern U.S. At this point, people from the Great Lakes to the Northeast should still expect late January to February to feel like the middle of winter. “Late January to February will feel like the middle of winter”. You don’t say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Anyone with 115,000 posts commands power and respect Very True......But Scott also proceeds with caution along with many others, we all seem we got a "lift me up", lets hope we all feel the same in the morning or 24 hours from now, what an emotional roller coaster ! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 We just Krakatoa to blow up so we have another winter over summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies gone wild week 3. +PNA/-EPO and -NAO. Wonder if that is too quick? Either way, that's refreshing to see. Not much, if it is too quick...JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 Scott and Will, what do you think caused that PAC jet? I don't think anyone nailed that. I feel like it was the SSW MJO amplification ...like Tom said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Regarding early next week, it seems the 50-50 low inducing ridging to it's north. I assume this is a transient ridge and that the NAO block doesn't get going until later in the month? But it does look like something that would slow the flow down as it doesn't seem that there is anything upstream that would push this along - is that right? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 No thread for Sunday's storm? First glimpse of the day at models, but king thinks so even if it's a little too late for a phase with northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Scott and Will, what do you think caused that PAC jet? I don't think anyone nailed that. I feel like it was the SSW MJO amplification ...like Tom said. I think the mjo naturally progressed into a region that is conducive to fire the jet up which is once it passes Indonesia area. You also have warmth along the equatorial waters and now these lows all along 50-60N that add some pressure gradient and keep the jet going. The mjo thing may have been enhanced by the SSW like some surmised. I also did not see a big coherent wave traverse eastward and leave this area. It’s still there. I’m sure there are other small scale nuances that I left out, but it’s sort of a feedback process. Stuff like that is impossible to forecast a month or two out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Anyone with 115,000 posts commands power and respect At least 15000 of those are drive by tosses though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 hours ago, dryslot said: I think tomorrow (12z) becomes thread time for our next threat if things hold. James will fire that mother up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, scoob40 said: James will fire that mother up Not, He knows better........I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 39 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not, He knows better........I think. I’m not so sure he knows better..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Where did al those good old days go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m not so sure he knows better..... Will he understand not happening James? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I would not BEGIN to gain confidence in this system hitting plowable amounts anywhere in SNE till Saturday and even then there will be nothing locked in this storms set-up, Sun 0z is when i would have piece of mind seeing this hold to we can wish it was its pretty much near best case scenario for CNE currently and close for northern SNE , lot more ways for this to shift to crap, than better for those areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 32 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m not so sure he knows better..... He does. Should this trend south favorably bob needs to fire up the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: He does. Should this trend south favorably bob needs to fire up the thread It’s not. It’ll be another C/NNE CJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I learned my lesson, I am no longer starting storm threads. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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