512high Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm surprised the CPC teleconnectors are not more elaborate ... They're not 'bad' but given to a favorable MJO, and as of last known coordinates ... a coherently propagating SSW (is that still the case?) ..one may think the present complexion leaves something to be desired. The AO is < 0 SD in most/all members... .There's spread there, but less spread, which means the perturbation of the various GEFs members are/is lowering in the ability to compensate for the AO signal... which is code for a strengthening one ... That may be why we are in part seeing a tendency in the MJO across the panoply of variant guidance types .. to subtly strengthen in Phase 8 ...because there is a correlation between 8-1 and -AOs... should excite a global mean/duration of enhanced easterly H-cell trades through the 50 to 60th .... agar for cyclones ... Man, this is optimistic this morning but more legit. Great for a Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Yeah the second part is quite potent for the same areas again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 46 minutes ago, weathafella said: There is more upside potential with this one. At the moment...I'm not thinking so south of the Pike. I'll keep expectations quite low at the moment. If we get an inch it'll be a win win. Starting to trend worse now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I'm sure this will be met with a resounding 86 appeal... and perhaps justifiably so... but it's comical how different the 84 hour NAM is wrt to the eastern Ontario/western Quebec high pressure compared to the other global models. Heh... I think in a twist ... the operationAl Euro agreeing with the GFS re that pressure pattern layout on the giggedy side of the Euro's wheel-house that would have to be a neat trick by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 It’s a couple inches pike south more north. Nothing’s changed with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 12z GFS dragging its heals getting the data out, Starting to think the govt shutdown has something to do with this on SV anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a couple inches pike south more north. Nothing’s changed with that Oh it's changing as we speak, but Ok lol...we'll soon see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: Oh it's changing as we speak, but Ok lol...we'll soon see. No one should be basing this on a gfs run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks meager and more of a CNE/NNE deal next week. Could be some snow to start down by the pike or so, but weak sauce overall. In other words, another one bites the dust for down here...it was always thread the needle here anyways. Too weak not good, too strong not good. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Blow up that second wave and that day 8 wave goes underneath us? With enough cold air hopefully.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: In other words, another one bites the dust for down here...it was always thread the needle here anyways. Too weak not good, too strong not good. Next Our time will come and it will come hard. This one just never stood a chance to come on us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No one should be basing this on a gfs run This is a weak POS...that's what this is based on. I can see you've learned nothing from your Xmas eve debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 12z GFS spits out a couple inches for most early next week...that's a win in my book this winter. I think we should also make separate threads for this weekend's event and next week's. It's getting a little confusing when following along in this general discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Blow up that second wave and that day 8 wave goes underneath us? With enough cold air hopefully.... Yup. Our focus is next weekend. That’s the one that gets the party started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: This is a weak POS...that's what this is based on. I can see you've learned nothing from your Xmas eve debacle. This is def stronger than Xmas Eve...but that isn't saying much. I wouldnt even throw accums out there right now since it is still 4 days out. Most guidance has prob 2-4 N of pike and 1-2 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's a bit a high wind signal in the synoptic evolution of the pressure pattern changes over Sunday's daylight hours. We see a curved flow extending west from the escaping coastal system, which sort of retards some momentum at first, but ...nearing 18z, ...that bulge/lag goes away ...replaced by a compressed pressure gradient as illustrated. Dam burst ... That combined with CAA destablization and diurnal heating also adding a vertical component ...the "momentum mixing" thing enhances that further. Almost like a smear isollabaric acceleration... albeit ill-defined but there could be some mighty turbine roars going over the tree canopies around 2 to 3pm Sunday. I wonder what the wind products at NWS look like - While not going into the details that you did, one of the Boston area mets this morning was hitting the wind on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This is def stronger than Xmas Eve...but that isn't saying much. I wouldnt even throw accums out there right now since it is still 4 days out. Most guidance has prob 2-4 N of pike and 1-2 south. That's a blockbuster event for this winter. Hopefully it stays the course or trends meatier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This is def stronger than Xmas Eve...but that isn't saying much. I wouldnt even throw accums out there right now since it is still 4 days out. Most guidance has prob 2-4 N of pike and 1-2 south. The dude just doesn’t get it. Let him go . Couple south of 90 to ice and a few north of 90. Anyone here should be excited 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The dude just doesn’t get it. Let him go . Couple south of 90 to ice and a few north of 90. Anyone here should be excited Agree 100% I think some are letting the past dictate the future. The seasonal trend is for marginal events to trend worse in the final hours leading up to the event. Maybe that's why some people's expectations are skewed toward nonevent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The dude just doesn’t get it. Let him go . Couple south of 90 to ice and a few north of 90. Anyone here should be excited The ice threat has been diminishing since we're not really getting any sfc reflection south of SNE....this is basically a WAA burst of precip and then it's done. If the vort trends back to making its way across the delmarva, then we may see the heavier precip and ice threat increase again...but it's not really showing that right now. We'd need something like the 12z Euro from yesterday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: While not going into the details that you did, one of the Boston area mets this morning was hitting the wind on Sunday yeah and NWS is allover it ... " Sunday... Blustery NW winds behind a departing storm system, there is the threat of gusts exceeding 45 mph requiring wind related headlines." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup. Our focus is next weekend. That’s the one that gets the party started. We have been patient, so what's another week or so? You can see the changes coming. Thankfully it is only January 4th and not February 4th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a couple inches pike south more north. Nothing’s changed with that Say goodbye 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: That's a blockbuster event for this winter. Hopefully it stays the course or trends meatier. This is a breadcrumbs kinda winter, at least for the foreseeable future. Nibble nibble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said: This is a breadcrumbs kinda winter, at least for the foreseeable future. Nibble nibble. Sort of like the seagulls looking for scraps in a Wal Mart parking lot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Say goodbye Lol...yup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Say goodbye I’m looking forward to a couple inches of snow Monday night. It’s been a long time . If you don’t like that .. deal with it. I’ll take a smaller type event. No one ever thought this was a big storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Boy ...there's really time to evolve that into something more... I almost suggest if the modeling stops focusing on the lead impulse and the IB burst thing as sweeper, and starts putting more emphasis on that/those trailing mechanics ... that region from the MA/NE should watch that. At 120 hours (...yeah, like "day five" hello -) there is tendency to quasi close the 500 mb surface over NE ...central new England axis point... It sort of slowly melon balls it's way down another 15 or so DM over the ensuing 12 to 18 hours, while an impressive momentum fluxes into the southwest part of the trough. It's 120 kts at 500 mb in the negative slope of the total L/W space!! That's hard to do... There's a lot there feeding into the bottom of that trough and at 120+ hours, there's time to modulate that toward some form of more purer N/stream and/or NJ model ordeal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Boy ...there's really time to evolve that into something more... I almost suggest if the modeling stops focusing on the lead impulse and the IB burst thing as sweeper, and starts putting more emphasis on that/those trailing mechanics ... that region from the MA/NE should watch that. At 120 hours (...yeah, like "day five" hello -) there is tendency to quasi close the 500 mb surface over NE ...central new England axis point... It sort of slowly melon balls it's way down another 15 or so DM over the ensuing 12 to 18 hours, while an impressive momentum fluxes into the southwest part of the trough. It's 120 kts at 500 mb in the negative slope of the total L/W space!! That's hard to do... There's a lot there feeding into the bottom of that trough and at 120+ hours, there's time to modulate that toward some form of more purer N/stream and/or NJ model ordeal. Talk dirty!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Did the GFS just breakdown? Or is it just tropicaltidbits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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