ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that defintiely has some nice TVA (Tip Vorticity Advection) like the Ukie. Yeah, the Ukie may have snuck out for a few beers on the magnitude, but the general idea wasn't far off. If we can get everything just a shade south, then we're probably talking a pretty decent event. As is though, round two is solid advisory for interior as heights all crash (coast may have BL issues, but eventually it flips there too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I would have to imagine the weaker the initial WAA pulse, the follow up pulse could come in as a colder solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 All coming together ASOUT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 The longer range Euro is starting to look a lot more like El Nino...we are getting rid of that pumped up SE/Gulf ridge and losing the excessive geopotential gradient in the south. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I'm actually surprised the Euro came this far in this particular run cycle... I mean some, sure... But 120 to 132 hours E of Chicago longitude is tantamount to not yet in the Euro's wheelhouse... One thing I've noticed about the Euro is that it's stubborn in the latter middle range and if it changes it usually waits until 108 hours. This ...sort of beats that ...maybe the emerging signal is louder in the background numerical physics... possible - sure. I wonder if tonight's run ...well, 1 am ... rolls in more ominous. Then, we deal with two days of back off... melt-downs... bi-polar swings on every run ...before they all come back on Monday with a blizzard. kidding of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The longer range Euro is starting to look a lot more like El Nino...we are getting rid of that pumped up SE/Gulf ridge and losing the excessive geopotential gradient in the south. Ding ding... Perhaps the ridge and the gradient are one in the same... but, that velocity saturation in the rest wind between S/W is like snake venom in the punch bowl man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 It does appear the GEFS are going to win that battle . EPS has been slowly caving each cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ding ding... Perhaps the ridge and the gradient are one in the same... but, that velocity saturation in the rest wind between S/W is like snake venom in the punch bowl man Yeah...and it's helping next weekend's threat too....you can see how much more relaxed the gradient is down south on this panel.....versus the 120 hour threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...and it's helping next weekend's threat too....you can see how much more relaxed the gradient is down south on this panel.....versus the 120 hour threat. Wow ... dude!!!!!!! hey I spoke about that ... the parafubar model of the GFS was tantalizing close to a subsume/1978 deal but just missed the players by two seconds in the revolving door. This is really... amazing as a trend and YES... the flow sort of organically relaxed in the S, allows the western heights --> downstream trough carving to get down there... It's soooo awesome to feel this vindication in the models - I've been trying to explain this for years but my own articulation is anyway, that's going to extrapolate favorably there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm actually surprised the Euro came this far in this particular run cycle... I mean some, sure... But 120 to 132 hours E of Chicago longitude is tantamount to not yet in the Euro's wheelhouse... One thing I've noticed about the Euro is that it's stubborn in the latter middle range and if it changes it usually waits until 108 hours. This ...sort of beats that ...maybe the emerging signal is louder in the background numerical physics... possible - sure. I wonder if tonight's run ...well, 1 am ... rolls in more ominous. Then, we deal with two days of back off... melt-downs... bi-polar swings on every run ...before they all come back on Monday with a blizzard. kidding of course. Tip - you had posited that there maybe a 'snap to' effect as the models are slow to react to the paradigm shift at first but then there is a tipping point (ha - tipping point - that's funny) at which they correct quickly - we seeing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 We're beginning to salivate over here....and Ray is just sitting over there nodding his head. All starting to come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Euro pretty torchy verbatim with the follow up wave at 925/BL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 The 216 hour frame on the 12z EURO run this afternoon, shows how the threat at day-10 can materialize. However, the day 4-5 threat looks great at this time range as well. Tip is right and so is Will, the compression flow decompresses over the southeast US and allows the central US to dig southeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Euro pretty torchy verbatim with the follow up wave at 925/BL. Yeah...ha... watch us get plenty stormy alright - wah wah waaah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Good eye candy from 228-240 in clown range...that storm that was starting to materialize at 192h destroys SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 240-hour EURO is a benchmark bomb with cold air mass in place and high in QUEBEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 That’s the one our centre has been eyeing on, buckle up girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Can't wait for the 12z EPS mean to come out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 The Ukie has precip from 114 hrs out to 144...I cant see the temps anywhere, but the precip is there (0.5" to 1.5" LE) throughout most of SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, cut said: Tip - you had posited that there maybe a 'snap to' effect as the models are slow to react to the paradigm shift at first but then there is a tipping point (ha - tipping point - that's funny) at which they correct quickly - we seeing that? Ha! just go with John. Typhoon Tip is a big storm of historic significance. I can think of worse social media aliases if it's any help. Although ...I have been called "tampon tip" before by those that hate me for whatever reason they can conjure that sates their will to do so... Which I actually give a lot of credit to for styling? Sometimes Sophomoric shenanigans can impulse a chortle. I mean, we used to call this poor coke-bottle spectacled girl "Hubble" in high school... I can just imagine some hapless Vietnamese kids named Tip being called tampon... Heh, kids. Um yeah I do ...remember those statements. I don't recall whether that was in an ongoing conversation, or if it was in one of those morning arm-chair quarter backing weather diatribes that I compose because I am actually attempting to physical cause discomfort in the heads of my readers... Just kidding, I think Will and I were discussing that possibility. That it may hold out and then collapse toward the new paradigm. It could be that? sure... We need more time. I'd like to see some consistency,...as well as multi- sourced agreement. I don't get to see the EPS ... what happened with that last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s the one our centre has been eyeing on, buckle up girls. Spin that second shortwave up and force the weekend one underneath. By then there should be some blocking to help it along with some cold air to work with....Looks good from here, sadly 9 days to go south (figuratively of literally)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha! just go with John. Typhoon Tip is a big storm of historic significance. I can think of worse social media aliases if it's any help. Although ...I have been called "tampon tip" before by those that hate me for whatever reason they can conjure that sates their will to do so... Which I actually give a lot of credit to for styling? Sometimes Sophomoric shenanigans can impulse of chortle. I mean, we used to call this poor coke-bottle spectacled girl "Hubble" in high school... I can just imagine some hapless Vietnamese kids named Tip being called tampon... Heh, kids. Um yeah I do ...remember those statements. I don't recall whether that was in an ongoing conversation, or if it was in one of those morning arm-chair quarter backing weather diatribes that I compose because I am actually attempting to physical cause discomfort in the heads of my readers... Just kidding, I think Will and I were discussing that possibility. That it may hold out and then collapse toward the new paradigm. I could be that? sure... We need more time. I'd like to see some consistency,...as well as multi- sourced agreement. I don't get to see the EPS ... what happened with that last night? EPS mean is showing an increase in storm signal for the 12/13th of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: Spin that second shortwave up and force the weekend one underneath. By then there should be some blocking to help it along with some cold air to work with....Looks good from here, sadly 9 days to go south (figuratively of literally)... day 4-5 is also becoming intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Good eye candy from 228-240 in clown range...that storm that was starting to materialize at 192h destroys SNE. Mjo in 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Good eye candy from 228-240 in clown range...that storm that was starting to materialize at 192h destroys SNE. You know it's been a slow start to winter when Will is ogling day 8-10 OP runs. Not something you see posted every day . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Mjo in 8 ...sort of ... The MJO doesn't cause a storm? ... I mean, not that you are saying so, but, this sort of dead panned reply to a specific storm potential sounds like it anyway, as discussed amply ... the MJO is an augmenter. It can contribute and help bolster a pattern where/when storms would be conducive... but that's no where close to doing it on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You know it's been a slow start to winter when Will is ogling day 8-10 OP runs. Not something you see posted every day . I actually don't think the Euro has had a single huge storm for SNE even in clown range this year...pretty amazing. Here it is......lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Good eye candy from 228-240 in clown range...that storm that was starting to materialize at 192h destroys SNE. Yesterday's 12z Euro op had that as a cutter. Quite the change in 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I actually don't think the Euro has had a single huge storm for SNE even in clown range this year...pretty amazing. Here it is......lol James, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Yesterday's 12z Euro op had that as a cutter. Quite the change in 24 hrs. Eps never did . Euro op blows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts