dendrite Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, MaineJayhawk said: One thing is certain - the rain this will produce in SNE will only further amplify the melts. Can't melt liquid. The next stage for weenies is to completely evaporate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: One thing is certain - the rain this will produce in SNE will only further amplify the melts. Oh and there is quite a bit of qpf down there, Its pretty marginal here on temps so it would come down to dynamics, Also, The Euro is the furthest NNW with getting the precip in here besides the GGEM and RGEM, They both get it back even thru the mtns but are very warm and it would be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: dryslot said the 6z euro backed off a bit and the ncep models are too far south. So I wouldn't go getting too excited. Was kinda just throwing it out there. And yeah that's not the M/T SWFE. I wasn't even thinking about this weeknd so it is cool to have something to look at in the afternoon runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: dryslot said the 6z euro backed off a bit and the ncep models are too far south. So I wouldn't go getting too excited. Was kinda just throwing it out there. And yeah that's not the M/T SWFE. Definitely was better on the 0z run the this 06z run........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Oh and there is quite a bit of qpf down there, Its pretty marginal here on temps so it would come down to dynamics, Also, The Euro is the furthest NNW with getting the precip in here besides the GGEM and RGEM, They both get it back even thru the mtns but are very warm and it would be rain. Yeah, pretty much expecting a little light rain with maybe some non-accumulating flakes in heavier bursts. Mon/Tue looks far more interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure I'd resign myself to "little to no snow" in Boston metro next week yet. Define little...could certainly see like 2" or more... 0-2" is definitely "little to no" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 0-2" is definitely "little to no" Right. I think 2" or more is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, MaineJayhawk said: Yeah, pretty much expecting a little light rain with maybe some non-accumulating flakes in heavier bursts. Mon/Tue looks far more interesting That's really the one we want to watch anyways, Don't like the last few cycles of that one though trending weaker, More of just an over running event like yesterdays now as its lost the Miller B look, But it still looks like a low end warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 0-2" is definitely "little to no" If it’s a widespread 1-2 it will have impact. As currently modeled it’s a cold system so it’s not like things wash away poof like often happens. We’re splitting hairs here though... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right. I think 2" or more is on the table. For you, sure. For BOS and points S/SW doubtful. Gradient winter persistence right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's really the one we want to watch anyways, Don't like the last few cycles of that one though trending weaker, More of just an over running event like yesterdays now as its lost the Miller B look, But it still looks like a low end warning event. The question is whether the patterns supports the miller b idea coming back. I think the miller b ideas was related to the strength of the confluence to the ne, yes? If that has weakened then the pacific jet fast flow will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, mahk_webstah said: The question is whether the patterns supports the miller b idea coming back. I think the miller b ideas was related to the strength of the confluence to the ne, yes? If that has weakened then the pacific jet fast flow will win. Flow is fast, And that s/w @H5 is not digging very far to the south, And yes there was more blocking originally down stream, And you were also getting that HP west of Ottawa to build in to force it south as now it looks to slide to the east as the s/w approaches, At least that's how i see it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Euro snowmaps on Weather.US still spitting out 4-6" for my area. I would be happy as a pig in snow if that verified 4" is certainly not out of the question with that system . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I haven't gone back very many pages ... there's an uptick in user participation/ apparent fervor, so it becomes less clear what conversation snip belongs to what trail of crumbs... But, there is a hidden trend in the last several cycles of the the operational GFS. Someone has surely noticed... For better or worse ... the model is splitting the N/stream into more and more coherently separate wave spaces. .. Rapidly progressing the ~100 hour focus out to sea, the 06z solution is another step more toward identifying new S/W ... diving in as an impressive flat wave, and generating it's own cyclogenesis ...technically would be (thus) unrelated entirely. That's a very complex scenario there... I could see that evolving into even a Norlun situation... With the lead escaping east, ...say, instead of the new cyclogen back west, the inv trough intensifies as the N/stream mechanics continuously feeding through.. Or, the two separate yet more, and there is virtual blind N/stream late bloomer deal. The Euro model 'almost' hints at having issues figuring this out too ...as I suspect the lead southern wave is creating a negative interference for it's N/stream solution. Fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 22 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: For you, sure. For BOS and points S/SW doubtful. Gradient winter persistence right now. It’s a 2-4” to ice event south of the pike with temps remaining below 32. SE sections have issues sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a 2-4” to ice event south of the pike with temps remaining below 32. SE sections have issues sure I think that's a bit bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think that's a bit bullish. Prob should go 1-3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 48 minutes ago, dryslot said: Definitely was better on the 0z run the this 06z run........ Jay Peak jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 40 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's really the one we want to watch anyways, Don't like the last few cycles of that one though trending weaker, More of just an over running event like yesterdays now as its lost the Miller B look, But it still looks like a low end warning event. Boo hiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Wow... the 06z paralegal run of the GFS was really close to a titanic solutions but just misses ...but soo close. AT 200+ hours... heights across the Gulf of Mexico/Flo and Bahamas have finally relaxed beneath 582 DM...despite the anticyclonic character of the flow curvature (216). The winds in the mid levels are 30 kts or less, and the spacing in the isotachs is rather large. These observation flag the region as compressible ... should a wave try to amplify into that region do to the transitive influence of upstream ridging in the Pac NW, the resulting compression won't hyper rate the geostrophic wind... I set up not commonly found in years actually. That means that S/Ws are conserved into a deeper latitudes. That's all code for this: At that/those times...we see a kind of open super S/W - scaled bag of vorticity gunk sagging through the mid-west. See how close that is? Here's the thing: If/should those western heights bounce back behind bag of gunk, with greater northward curved penetration, that bag of goop would probably phase into a main cohesive S/W dive that would avail of said relaxed flow in the SE, and you'd correct that toward more lower latitude Miller B or Miller A/B in general... But that's when the story really gets intriguing... That midwest trough entices a goodly mass of the western SPV circumvallate to startd descending in... You have to correct these things in your imagination... If the former amplified as said, that means this latter N/stream arrival does so on a steeper trajectory and then things get real dice ...taking step wise correction into something much much bigger. There are two layers to that: the first being... we could through up western heights more and subsequently/consequentially carve out more and end up with party anyway, but, then ... Oy...alas, all this work for paranormal run ... I just like the tenor evolving anyway. There's definitely a window in all guidance packages for amplitude over N/A for mid month.. which obviously .. that's no revelation at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Prob should go 1-3” Much better than the 2-4 you had the post before....1-3 is where it looks to be right now, and probably closer to the 1-2 side of things currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Much better than the 2-4 you had the post before....1-3 is where it looks to be right now, and probably closer to the 1-2 side of things currently. There is more upside potential with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Some positive MJO forecast changes this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Nice! the ECMWF product suite is actually rather impressive with the MJO ... more so than the GEFs ( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml ).. I'll tell ya... one sort of weird way of looking at this, with the wave weaker (corrected) by the GEFs passing through the 6th quadrature that means it inherently spends less time there. Less = less momentum/forcing exerted ... The GEFs even do you favor by accelerating the actual wave propagation speed, showing almost the entire Phase 7 relay and subsequent residence as limited to just a day and half's worth of time! It's like 2.5 days to go from mid/late 6 clear to early 8. It's weak there after though as we can see... not sure what that decay curl thing is about...It doesn't seem to be real though. The last 10 days of MJO nightly guidance keeps moving that curl out in time, while extending points along the curve deeper into more favorable quadratures ...so I'm willing to hunch that the GEFs will eventually come around to a more Euro like solution. Which has gotten pretty good actually. I just (damn damn damn) can't see the WPO and NP-EPO numbers ...I don't have any ancillary sources that are free for cheep douches such as my self to rely upon. But, if indeed the Pacific arc is in or is entering a less discordant wave space(s) ..these total MJO's may add to a +PNA ... So yea... reiterating recent conjecture but these recent prognosis are more in support of winter enthusiast agenda at the point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 actually... they're all more than less showing that acceleration through 7 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, MaineJayhawk said: Yeah, pretty much expecting a little light rain with maybe some non-accumulating flakes in heavier bursts. Mon/Tue looks far more interesting Would not mind just clouds here, as I'm planning to drill some holes through the ice at Flying Pond, and because it will be mild I'd gladly trade sun's warmth so to avoid its double glare. GYX talking high-end advisory for Tuesday, right in step with this season's pattern of frequent snow (except for Dec. 3-27) but nothing big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I'm surprised the CPC teleconnectors are not more elaborate ... They're not 'bad' but given to a favorable MJO, and as of last known coordinates ... a coherently propagating SSW (is that still the case?) ..one may think the present complexion leaves something to be desired. The AO is < 0 SD in most/all members... .There's spread there, but less spread, which means the perturbation of the various GEFs members are/is lowering in the ability to compensate for the AO signal... which is code for a strengthening one ... That may be why we are in part seeing a tendency in the MJO across the panoply of variant guidance types .. to subtly strengthen in Phase 8 ...because there is a correlation between 8-1 and -AOs... should excite a global mean/duration of enhanced easterly H-cell trades through the 50 to 60th .... agar for cyclones ... Man, this is optimistic this morning but more legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Looks meager and more of a CNE/NNE deal next week. Could be some snow to start down by the pike or so, but weak sauce overall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Looks like the timing is getting later as well as the GFS brings this in in two pieces, Weak over running on Tues, And a more amped s/w on Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 There's a bit a high wind signal in the synoptic evolution of the pressure pattern changes over Sunday's daylight hours. We see a curved flow extending west from the escaping coastal system, which sort of retards some momentum at first, but ...nearing 18z, ...that bulge/lag goes away ...replaced by a compressed pressure gradient as illustrated. Dam burst ... That combined with CAA destablization and diurnal heating also adding a vertical component ...the "momentum mixing" thing enhances that further. Almost like a smear isollabaric acceleration... albeit ill-defined but there could be some mighty turbine roars going over the tree canopies around 2 to 3pm Sunday. I wonder what the wind products at NWS look like - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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