dryslot Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 40 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS dragging its heals getting the data out, Starting to think the govt shutdown has something to do with this on SV anyways. 4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Did the GFS just breakdown? Or is it just tropicaltidbits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Funding has completely run out now...EURO and the CMC from this day forward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Funding has completely run out now...EURO and the CMC from this day forward. Now if Canada shuts down we’ll have needed clarity... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m looking forward to a couple inches of snow Monday night. It’s been a long time . If you don’t like that .. deal with it. I’ll take a smaller type event. No one ever thought this was a big storm It’s not about looking forward to it or not...Hopefully that’s the way it plays out. But there’s a chance this doesn’t even give you that 2 inches. It’s looking pretty meh for that two inches currently. Maybe it comes back?? But as of now it looks like crap. That’s the point. Id take an inch too..and look forward to it..but it looks to be trending more and more mundane as we go... But it if you still want to go with that foolish idea of this is 1-3, or 2-4 and nothing’s changed talk... go ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Yup... next to go is the communications infrastructure appropriations funding ... which means, restricting all internet traffic to only critical health, safety, and economics data - which unfortunately means that all social media platforms, while still operational, will be islands in a disconnected sea of domain spaces. That's code for no more hours of devotion to this and forcing everyone to engage in something similar to a life - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 So wait - I'm just catching up. No models now because of the shutdown??????? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 GFS op was delayed. All good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Gusty SW Breezes, Full Sun, Smells like Sping! Winter has not yet made an appearance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m looking forward to a couple inches of snow Monday night. It’s been a long time . If you don’t like that .. deal with it. I’ll take a smaller type event. No one ever thought this was a big storm If this holds for a literal couple inches of snow for you Monday nite I would be pleasantly surprised and satisfied .My “guess” is this trends less and less and is a CNE/NNE few inches in the end , but you kno that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Ukie is quite interesting...can't see any other fields except H5 and sfc pressure...but that argues for quite a snowy solution...look at how far the sfc front is at 96H...and then heights crash and we evolve into a little nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 We hope and pray, but wonder if Ukie was at the pub earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Fianlly a bit of melting this pack today.. Funny how Mother Nature balances things out. All summer while the SNE people up to Dendrite got storms I stayed dry and missed. Now it seems all it wants to do is snow up here. Hopefully either wave 1 or 2 will strengthen and go under SNE to give you a nice blast. I would gladly give next weeks storms up so you all get yours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: We hope and pray, but wonder if Ukie was at the pub earlier. Snuck out for a few brews at lunch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We hope and pray, but wonder if Ukie was at the pub earlier. Has potential, or will Charlie Brown be back when this is also at 3.5 days out 6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Fianlly a bit of melting this pack today.. Funny how Mother Nature balances things out. All summer while the SNE people up to Dendrite got storms I stayed dry and missed. Now it seems all it wants to do is snow up here. Hopefully either wave 1 or 2 will strengthen and go under SNE to give you a nice blast. I would gladly give next weeks storms up so you all get yours. What a nice sentiment, Mother Nature responds more to cash donations . I set one up for her at [email protected] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Gefs has a nice signal for a coastal on the 13th. Pattern looks great midmonth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is quite interesting...can't see any other fields except H5 and sfc pressure...but that argues for quite a snowy solution...look at how far the sfc front is at 96H...and then heights crash and we evolve into a little nuke Not to toot my own horn but ... yeah, it seems to be tapping into that idea where the last four cycles of the GFS is presently trending ... I don't think the original interest for the time frame is really where the focus should be at this point... Yeah, there'll be an IB associated with that waa...but that's also attenuating, possibly in lieu of this latter amplitude. There's time... situation's in flux - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs has a nice signal for a coastal on the 13th. Pattern looks great midmonth. You already have the 12z gefs out to mid month? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Not to toot my own horn but ... yeah, it seems to be tapping into that idea where the last four cycles of the GFS is presently trending ... I don't think the original interest for the time frame is really where the focus should be at this point... Yeah, there'll be an IB associated with that waa...but that's also attenuating, possibly in lieu of this latter amplitude. There's time... situation's in flux - Whether is the Ukie sneaking out for a few drinks at lunch or something real...that solution def caught my eye. That's a big snow event as depicted just looking at the synoptic feature with no QPF maps or anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Whether is the Ukie sneaking out for a few drinks at lunch or something real...that solution def caught my eye. That's a big snow event as depicted just looking at the synoptic feature with no QPF maps or anything. And ...granted, I'm a maverick as you know over the years, and I put it all out there and don't really give a ratz ass where the chips fall... I'm not casting any illusions over what it ultimately means to be a contributing member of this social media haha. As such... I don't have problem with it. I don't have any compunctions about discussing where things "could go" based upon possible corrections - if the corrections can't happen, I won't bring them up ...personally, I think that is a skill sorely need by more in operational but that's 'sides the point. What's catching your eye may not even be finished... I think the Euro may even need a day but ...the 12z solution may be interesting anyway. The broadly ill-scoped surface low pressure of the 00z run struck me as a person leaving the canvas unfinished because they got a late memo on where the paint should be applied - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: You already have the 12z gefs out to mid month? Special privileges for special weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 To simplify ... it comes down to more cohesion with the later mechanics, amplifying a long a narrower corridor of latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We hope and pray, but wonder if Ukie was at the pub earlier. Lol...had the same thought. Let’s see if his more sober cousin concurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol...had the same thought. Let’s see if his more sober cousin concurs. How are the MEX numbers looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 42 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: You already have the 12z gefs out to mid month? Yes Stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Euro is starting to focus more on the backside energy....it still has the WAA pulse, but it is getting weaker each run seemingly. The western ridge has shifted quite a bit west too by 108h vs 120h on the 00z run. Verbatim, the WAA pulse is like 1-2" for pike and a bit more for NNE...a little less down in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro is starting to focus more on the backside energy....it still has the WAA pulse, but it is getting weaker each run seemingly. The western ridge has shifted quite a bit west too by 108h vs 120h on the 00z run. Verbatim, the WAA pulse is like 1-2" for pike and a bit more for NNE...a little less down in CT. Hmm...maybe the WAA turns into a C-2" appetizer followed by the little critter that bites for someone in NE a day or so later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Backside energy redevelops another low south of SNE at 120 hours and there's a goodburst of snow with this. This is actually not that far from the Ukie solution...more tame for sur,e but it has the same idea of using the backside energy as the primary mechanics as Tip was discussing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Tip will appreciate this H5 map...it's what he was talking about earlier...that backside pulse/jet streak with the associated vortmax carves in underneath.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Yeah that defintiely has some nice TVA (Tip Vorticity Advection) like the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Days and days of snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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