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40/70 Benchmark

January 2019 Discussion

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11-12-18

 

December%2BForecast.png
 
"The current scandinavian ridge should retrograde towards Greenland for the first couple of weeks of December, some significant snows are likely for much of New England. The PNA may struggle to become established this early, however if it can, the northern mid atlantic may join the fray. The  blocking pattern should break down mid month, and there will likely be Grinch storm in the vicinity of Christmas, unlike last season.Temperatures should average out near normal for most of the east by month's end, biased colder early, and milder late. If anything, slightly above average for the mid atlantic, and below average in New England".
 
 
January%2BForecaast.png
"The NAO blocking breaks down in time for the holidays, go figure, however around this time the Pacific side grows more supportive, so this mid winter break will not be as prolonged, nor as mild as last season, especially across New England. The month of January should average anywhere from 1-2 degrees above normal across New England, and 2-3 degrees above normal beneath the 40th parallel. 
 

December has gone pretty much according to plan....The PNA was able to spike early for a southern system, then we cold and dry...then we grinched, as expected. The meager PNA pattern that has predominated since was anticipated, too. It will not last, and it will spoke before the ball drops. December, as anticipated, was indeed biased cold early, and warmer later. The early snows did not work out, those are the breaks. The month may close with some light amounts north of the pike, but for the most part we are on to 2019.

The month of January looks a lot like 2015 and 2005, and we expect a similar evolution. Complete with a monster Archambault event anywhere from January 20th to February 8th, after which the Atlantic couples with the Pacific to induce cross polar flow and set the stage for a memorable February". 
 
I see absolutely zero reason to stray from this....if anything, I may end up too warm for January.
 
Here is the current depiction of the EPS weekly product centered on 1/20/19, which represents the forecast gateway to the promised land.
87145133_GOTIME.thumb.png.dff755d300387aa49c1028fbfd117d53.png
 
This perception that the changes are being "pushed back" is being perpetuated by a contingent of uninformed, beleaugered winter enthusiasts that have been allowing computer guidance to  wildly modulate expectations akin to an unmanned firehose. However the fact that large scale, hemispheric mass transitions are about as easy on guidance as the holidays are on the waistline renders this endeavor a fools errand indeed. The prudent course of action is to instead consider how the anticipated structure and intensity of ENSO may manifest itself into the autumnal global canvas, and thus utilize this to devise an evolutionary paradigm for how the season will play out, which will then inform our perceptions of the pantheon of guidance available at any given moment in time. Ample research coupled with extensive seasonal forecasting experience requires model guidance to merely reaffirm fall presuppositions.
Long range ensembles currently affirm, however patience is a virtue-
 
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Much of the activity comprising this "phase two" of winter will be of the northern stream Miller B, or at least Miller B-hybrid variety. Thus it is a firm grasp on the evolution of systems of this ilk in combination with an extensive working knowledge base of weak modoki climatology that yields the expectation for the focal point of the greatest snowfall anomalies residing across the eastern half of southern New England. This is due to the propensity for N stream systems to congeal later and further to the east than guidance suggests, and the fact that this region jettisons to the east out into the Atlantic.

NYC should do well, but the results are a bit more variable from Philly south. Even the mid atl should have its share of chances though, especially when the PNA spikes in concert with ample high  latitude blocking.

Just please remain mindful that modeling is cyclically going to rush these changes, and then struggle to adjust,  thus casting the illusion that the it is the timeframe for the evolution itself that is begin delayed. This is not the case. Then as the period is upon us, be leery of the tendency for guidance to:

1) Demonstrate an expeditious bias in the rate of development of these northern stream tempests, which will also bias initial snowfall projections heavy further down the coast.

2) Underestimate N stream assertiveness, which have two medium range impacts. A- Systems originally modeled to undergo a Miller A evolution of cyclogenesis will ultimately succumb to the N stream, thus reducing impact relative to original forecasts to the southwest, and enhancing it to the north and east. B- Systems previously modeled as moderate, or even innocuously will abruptly take on a decidedly more important appeal on guidance, as the northern stream is handled more aptly at shorter leads. This can also go the other way....the N stream can become overbearing, or ill timed and the phase fails, or is delayed until it is detonated well off of the coast. NOT ALL THREATS WILL MATERIALIZE, AND THIS DOES NOT HAVE TO MEAN 100" OF SNOW IN BOSTON.

But it could-

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Ray, how much split flow action do you think we see?  You seeing much subtropical flow in ENSO modeling?  I’ve not had any time to dive into much.

Bob, I think it will be present, which is what the northern stream often avails itself of....but its just that in el nino events that are more meager as this one is, the N stream is more prevalent, and thus dictates evolution type more assertively. Obviously an active N stream entails that systems develop later (further to the east) and higher in latitude more often than not...which guidance struggles to account for.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bob, I think it will be present, which is what the northern stream often avails itself of....but its just that in el nino events that are more meager as this one is, the N stream is more prevalent, and thus dictates evolution type more assertively. Obviously an active N stream entails that systems develop later (further to the east) and higher in latitude more often than not...which guidance struggles to account for.

Yeah those are great points going into reading modeling once the storms start to show up.  Models almost always bomb those things too early in that Day 2-6 range.  It's usually the last 48 hours or even final 24 hours when you see those start ticking eastward.  RIP Messenger but he was on that back even in 2004-05.  The ol' RUC keeps developing further east with each run leading into a Miller B.  

Now, if it's a Miller B that gets going near the NJ coastline that's different, but the classic Miller B developing east of the Cape or east of BOS does seem to verify further east in terms of pressure/track.  Models love to over deepen those too quickly.

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah those are great points going into reading modeling once the storms start to show up.  Models almost always bomb those things too early in that Day 2-6 range.  It's usually the last 48 hours or even final 24 hours when you see those start ticking eastward.  RIP Messenger but he was on that back even in 2004-05.  The ol' RUC keeps developing further east with each run leading into a Miller B.  

Now, if it's a Miller B that gets going near the NJ coastline that's different, but the classic Miller B developing east of the Cape or east of BOS does seem to verify further east in terms of pressure/track.  Models love to over deepen those too quickly.

If a system is just getting going east of Boston, we are in trouble. I am talking all Miller Bs.......but obviously some get going faster than others....depends on both the LW trough orientation/position, as well as the phasing nuances between the respective streams.

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Excellent work as always, Ray. Despite a disappointing December (I thought we’d be at normal for snowfall) I feel great about the next 2/3 of met winter. I think places DC north would have to be catastrophically unlucky to not have at least a decent winter. 

It has been something to see the panic and melts the last few weeks around here. Giving the Mid-Atlantic a run for their money... 

 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Excellent work as always, Ray. Despite a disappointing December (I thought we’d be at normal for snowfall) I feel great about the next 2/3 of met winter. I think places DC north would have to be catastrophically unlucky to not have at least a decent winter. 

It has been something to see the panic and melts the last few weeks around here. Giving the Mid-Atlantic a run for their money... 

 

Don't get me wrong....although I feel my ideas for December worked out very well, I did expect some decent snows in SNE.....but that didn't work out. However I feel as though the proof will be in the monthly departures, which are nothing like other classic warm el nino months of December...even 12/14. We did very well in Novie, though.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah those are great points going into reading modeling once the storms start to show up.  Models almost always bomb those things too early in that Day 2-6 range.  It's usually the last 48 hours or even final 24 hours when you see those start ticking eastward.  RIP Messenger but he was on that back even in 2004-05.  The ol' RUC keeps developing further east with each run leading into a Miller B.  

Now, if it's a Miller B that gets going near the NJ coastline that's different, but the classic Miller B developing east of the Cape or east of BOS does seem to verify further east in terms of pressure/track.  Models love to over deepen those too quickly.

I think we see more in the way of clippers developing near the cape or BOS then your typical miller B's, Those seem to be off the NJ shore or the delmarva, Clippers usually favor mainly DE ME unless it blows a hole in the atmosphere when it (wait for it) hits the gulfstream then it can get snow pretty far back to the NW of the low center.

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Solid knowledge/research and well written. I’m on the bus but tbh, concerned favorable enso conditions may be delayed some. It may not matter much but it may play a role where we need the atlantic a bit more than in years past. Just a hunch.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Fantasy but wow that's a disgusting 18z Gfs op run. Pure Pacific puke with a death vortex over Alaska and tepid -NAO. 

Jan 1-10 torch?

Stop using a op model that is awful outside 7 days. It couldn’t be any different from it’s own ensembles. 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Stop using a op model that is awful outside 7 days. It couldn’t be any different from it’s own ensembles. 

Just pointing it out, it may be fantasy but it does show we have a long way to go before there's a legit snow chance. 

I also don't think we should discount the zero snowfall tally for December and the +AO average. There are some definite red flags that are hard to ignore though I still believe we'll see a snowy period.

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51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just pointing it out, it may be fantasy but it does show we have a long way to go before there's a legit snow chance. 

I also don't think we should discount the zero snowfall tally for December and the +AO average. There are some definite red flags that are hard to ignore though I still believe we'll see a snowy period.

Ensembles are more optimistic 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just pointing it out, it may be fantasy but it does show we have a long way to go before there's a legit snow chance. 

I also don't think we should discount the zero snowfall tally for December and the +AO average. There are some definite red flags that are hard to ignore though I still believe we'll see a snowy period.

Deterministic OP solutions are pretty worthless beyond five days or so...

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just pointing it out, it may be fantasy but it does show we have a long way to go before there's a legit snow chance. 

I also don't think we should discount the zero snowfall tally for December and the +AO average. There are some definite red flags that are hard to ignore though I still believe we'll see a snowy period.

What red flags?

A poor snowfall December in an el nino? Its called climo. The fact that December was not a torch, and featured a major snowstorm in RIC is actually a pretty strong signal that this el nino winter will be at least decent.

December can clinch a good el nino winter, but not cancel out...its house money.

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Just anecdotally, but I bet that research would support the notion that weak el nino Decembers can actually begin more slowly than moderate because the forcing and the STJ is struggling to establish itself. 12/2002 and 2009 seemed to assert earlier with a more prominent STJ....however the weak ones, save for 12/77 and non modoki 12/76, took longer and were very N stream dependent once they became established.

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Deterministic OP solutions are pretty worthless beyond five days or so...

That's a relief because the latest Gfs shows the Alaskan death vortex near mid Jan and a 11/12 pattern over us. 

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I’d say anything before mid January is a win here, given the look over the next 2 weeks+.

our climo is only a little over 40” here... so it won’t take much, even if it takes until late Jan to get going.

Like I said a few days ago... long range looks okay... not good, not bad.

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This perception that the changes are being "pushed back" is being perpetrated by a contingent of uninformed, beleaugered winter enthusiasts that have been allowing computer guidance to  wildly modulate expectations akin to an unmanned firehose. 

 

LOL, Ray.  Thanks for the update here.  I agree that the future will be more conducive to late-developing events favoring eastern areas and Maine.  Hoping we can still cash in on a few opportunities in GC.

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34 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

EPS and GEFS both look cold going forward.  GEFs maybe cold & dry with the PNA ridge shifted a bit eastward.  Here is a nice split flow regime from EPS:

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_nhem_11.png

Just a novice observation but the New England area has had quite the stretch of wet weather and you got to expect a shift to a dry pattern at some point? Maybe it's Jan/Feb or maybe it holds off until Late Spring.  Here in S FL it has been a fairly cool and dry fall with most rain confined to Orlando area north into the Pan Handle. Not sure how weather trends here translate to trends we see back in New England but this is the coldest period I have had down here in 5 years.

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Kind of chaotic on guidance and no wonder why models are struggling. We got a MJO wave adding momentum to the PAC jet which is causing the cold to be transient and push back. It should move east towards SAMR and Africa and relax the jet I would imagine. But, that will be in 1-2 weeks. We also have the stratospheric warming event, but the thing about that is we normally see this later in winter. What does it mean when it happens this early? 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Look at the 200mb wind anomalies over the Pacific. Jet is active. Needs to shut down. Definitely not behaving like a weak Nino.

Is something else causing this anomaly that could be the wrench in Nino winter’s typical  comebacks?

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13 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Is something else causing this anomaly that could be the wrench in Nino winter’s typical  comebacks?

I think it will come back. But this nino is basin wide in terms of SSTs...the whole Pacific is warm. It would be better if the west and central were only warm. My guess is we see better conditions for us after first week of Jan. Maybe mid month?

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