mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I like Ekster's GYX discussion. And I like the idea of 2 moderate snowfalls in a 36 hour period with no significant wind. Will be fun to walk in, look at, and my long driveway up the hill won't be constantly drifted over.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 UMB WX needs to be more judicious with his/her emojis. As Dianne found out last winter, you do have a finite number. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 44 minutes ago, dryslot said: Won't cut it after reading this weeks threads, But this should........ If you’re going blueberry vodka, shouldn’t it be this? http://www.coldrivervodka.com/blueberry-vodka/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Ridging is showing up nicely on the latest model guidance beyond 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Ridging is really improving out west by hour 102 on the latest 18z GFS, this is a really nice trend from the previous six runs of the model. The energy is really nice too in the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 hours ago, cut said: Tip - you had posited that there maybe a 'snap to' effect as the models are slow to react to the paradigm shift at first but then there is a tipping point (ha - tipping point - that's funny) at which they correct quickly - we seeing that? 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha! just go with John. Typhoon Tip is a big storm of historic significance. I can think of worse social media aliases if it's any help. Although ...I have been called "tampon tip" before by those that hate me for whatever reason they can conjure that sates their will to do so... Which I actually give a lot of credit to for styling? Sometimes Sophomoric shenanigans can impulse a chortle. I mean, we used to call this poor coke-bottle spectacled girl "Hubble" in high school... I can just imagine some hapless Vietnamese kids named Tip being called tampon... Heh, kids. Um yeah I do ...remember those statements. I don't recall whether that was in an ongoing conversation, or if it was in one of those morning arm-chair quarter backing weather diatribes that I compose because I am actually attempting to physical cause discomfort in the heads of my readers... Just kidding, I think Will and I were discussing that possibility. That it may hold out and then collapse toward the new paradigm. It could be that? sure... We need more time. I'd like to see some consistency,...as well as multi- sourced agreement. I don't get to see the EPS ... what happened with that last night? I mean it's not a wild stretch to think that observable features could radically shift a model forecast. I'm thinking more in the case of a consistently modeled feature that turns out to be in error, or a consistent bias. Like if the Euro was dead set on a low amplitude MJO wave in phase 6, but the reality is a large amplitude wave in 7, you could see a big shift in modeling. Another could be wave breaking that was or wasn't forecast properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, mreaves said: If you’re going blueberry vodka, shouldn’t it be this? http://www.coldrivervodka.com/blueberry-vodka/ Sure, If I could find who has it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I mean it's not a wild stretch to think that observable features could radically shift a model forecast. I'm thinking more in the case of a consistently modeled feature that turns out to be in error, or a consistent bias. Like if the Euro was dead set on a low amplitude MJO wave in phase 6, but the reality is a large amplitude wave in 7, you could see a big shift in modeling. Another could be wave breaking that was or wasn't forecast properly. Huge ridging changes out west leading to a colder solution and a potential miller B snowstorm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 47 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I like Ekster's GYX discussion. And I like the idea of 2 moderate snowfalls in a 36 hour period with no significant wind. Will be fun to walk in, look at, and my long driveway up the hill won't be constantly drifted over.... That’s where this is going, More towards a 2 day event with a lull in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 That is my absolute favorite kind of event outside of a 2’ mauling blizzard. Reminds me of mid to late December 2008. Snow and then very light light snow for a day and then more snow. That one gave over 2 feet so I’m not expecting that but 6 to 12 or maybe a bit more seems very doable and will be a great three days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: That’s where this is going, More towards a 2 day event with a lull in between. As long as it’s not going toward the xmas eve event , which part 1 appears to be doing for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: As long as it’s not going toward the xmas eve event , which part 1 appears to be doing for sne MLs look cold enough for most of SNE to see some snow C-3” for part 1. In fact, the MLs don’t go above 0C until most of the precip exits on the GFS. Unsure about the BL. Probably torchy with lighter rates. I bet ASH scores a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 18z GFS hour 192 H5 depiction is one for the ages, in line with the 12z EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: MLs look cold enough for most of SNE to see some snow C-3” for part 1. In fact, the MLs don’t go above 0C until most of the precip exits on the GFS. Unsure about the BL. Probably torchy with lighter rates. I bet ASH scores a couple. Trends are the key in the guidance this afternoon and evening, watch out west, the +PNA ridging out west is getting better and better on latest guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: As long as it’s not going toward the xmas eve event , which part 1 appears to be doing for sne You need to move. Models starting to pick up another sneaky event up this way on Sunday with several inches possible for the mountains. You'd love it up here. The Stowe mom's would love you too...they work out excessively every day and drink wine while the husbands make them money in NYC or Boston. Maybe another 3-6" 'er for the slopes on Sunday? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You need to move. Models starting to pick up another sneaky event up this way on Sunday with several inches possible for the mountains. You'd love it up here. The Stowe mom's would love you too...they work out excessively every day and drink wine while the husbands make them money in NYC or Boston. Maybe another 3-6" 'er for the slopes on Sunday? Scott that is your most inspiring post put in a good word at top notch lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 18z GFS hour 192 H5 depiction is one for the ages, in line with the 12z EURO. Rainstorm for the ages. It is an interesting look, but there’s lots to iron out before then with the systems this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Rainstorm for the ages. It is an interesting look, but there’s lots to iron out before then with the systems this week. Oh for sure Brian, do you like being called by your name or dendrite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 13 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: MLs look cold enough for most of SNE to see some snow C-3” for part 1. In fact, the MLs don’t go above 0C until most of the precip exits on the GFS. Unsure about the BL. Probably torchy with lighter rates. I bet ASH scores a couple. C-3”? Looks like nothing really but light crap for late Monday nite /tues am on 12z models unless you can find me something . i have zero faith currently in backside energy doing much Wednesday BUT I haven’t looked at things ,if the Atlantic traffic has slowed down and the models can bring this to day it will be A LOT more serious the best news so far is the mid range Models looking more promising , at mid month imo. That look is what I want to see stick bc Monday nite is going going gone like a Ortiz bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Scott that is your most inspiring post put in a good word at top notch lol I'm telling you, private trainer making house calls around here.... this is no three-tooth zone. It's like a small Boston suburb dropped into the mountains in terms of affluence and looks, which is also why a lot of Vermont doesn't consider Stowe part of the same state. Heck, right now I'm trying to find Jonathon Papelbon to give him his gloves back. Guy is hilarious. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'm telling you, private trainer making house calls around here.... this is no three-tooth zone. It's like a small Boston suburb dropped into the mountains in terms of affluence and looks, which is also why a lot of Vermont doesn't consider Stowe part of the same state. How seasonable is that house wife / workout niche clientele thou and yes I would be in heaven would never have to deal with what I beleive is just unacceptable Snow climo. Ppl accept it bc they have no choice but it’s tons of suckage that makes you appreciate the good storms here more and the special years more. F that. Gimme guaranteed snow every couple days and constant snow cover and moose farts that still surprise the best forecasting tools available and turn a 1-3” into 8-12” every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: How seasonable is that house wife / workout niche clientele thou and yes I would be in heaven would never have to deal with what I beleive is just unacceptable Snow climo. Ppl accept it bc they have no choice but it’s tons of suckage that makes you appreciate the good storms here more and the special years more. F that. Gimme guaranteed snow every couple days and constant snow cover and moose farts that still surprise the best forecasting tools available and turn a 1-3” into 8-12” every year That ridging out west needs to be watched, it is the key to our Monday night/Tuesday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: C-3”? Looks like nothing really but light crap for late Monday nite /tues am on 12z models unless you can find me something . i have zero faith currently in backside energy doing much Wednesday BUT I haven’t looked at things ,if the Atlantic traffic has slowed down and the models can bring this to day it will be A LOT more serious the best news so far is the mid range Models looking more promising , at mid month imo. That look is what I want to see stick bc Monday nite is going going gone like a Ortiz bomb Maybe I’m wearing weenie goggles, but that 18z GFS depiction isn’t nearly bad as your post makes it out to be. Most models at 12z we’re an inch or two to the Pike and a few north of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh for sure Brian, do you like being called by your name or dendrite? Don’t ask him-just say dendy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh for sure Brian, do you like being called by your name or dendrite? Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Brian Awesome, I like my first name as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Heading off to the gym tonight, working to lose weight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I mean even if we get some snow say down to Manchester or Keene area i would consider that a trend in the right direction.....we can't expect to go from full on tropical to a 2' blizzard on Block island. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: How seasonable is that house wife / workout niche clientele thou and yes I would be in heaven would never have to deal with what I beleive is just unacceptable Snow climo. Ppl accept it bc they have no choice but it’s tons of suckage that makes you appreciate the good storms here more and the special years more. F that. Gimme guaranteed snow every couple days and constant snow cover and moose farts that still surprise the best forecasting tools available and turn a 1-3” into 8-12” every year When I lived in Ithaca and it snowed like every other day, it became unbearable after a while. I was starving for big synoptic storms after a couple months and I'll I get was currier and Ives crap that gave like 1-3". Granted, at least Stowe gets those bigger synoptic storms way more frequently but even the 8" LES events seemed so fake...I'd sneeze and the walkway would be clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: How seasonable is that house wife / workout niche clientele thou and yes I would be in heaven would never have to deal with what I beleive is just unacceptable Snow climo. Ppl accept it bc they have no choice but it’s tons of suckage that makes you appreciate the good storms here more and the special years more. F that. Gimme guaranteed snow every couple days and constant snow cover and moose farts that still surprise the best forecasting tools available and turn a 1-3” into 8-12” every year You’re gonna get shot one of these days making a “house call.” 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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