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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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important point.  Temperatures get above freezing around lunch time tomorrow and never go below freezing Sunday night.  Lots of melting to be had.  Monday morning may not be all that bad on the roads.  Tuesday morning could be worse with refreeze.

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3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

important point.  Temperatures get above freezing around lunch time tomorrow and never go below freezing Sunday night.  Lots of melting to be had.  Monday morning may not be all that bad on the roads.  Tuesday morning could be worse with refreeze.

If thats true, then why is he expecting so much ice throughout the day tomorrow?

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9 minutes ago, Drummer said:

He's making some good points, specifically about how we're seeing temps trend colder than what was expected.

The heavy showers that we have been getting are perhaps cooling the column down faster than the models are expecting. FWIW, 1z HRRR initialized about 3-4 degrees too warm for CLT. 

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Just now, wake4est said:

Okayyyy

457AE7F7-533F-4089-B6DA-09D68950DD82.jpeg

That  is certainly  faulty  in SE VA. 1-4 in norfolk and vab? no snow there at all.

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6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

important point.  Temperatures get above freezing around lunch time tomorrow and never go below freezing Sunday night.  Lots of melting to be had.  Monday morning may not be all that bad on the roads.  Tuesday morning could be worse with refreeze.

Err. Where?? You didn't specify a location of where this would take place.

Also, didn't you say RAH wouldn't issue WSW's for Wake the other day?B)

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5 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

If thats true, then why is he expecting so much ice throughout the day tomorrow?

I was referring to Raleigh.  Temperatures in Charlotte may actually stay at 32 for much longer which causes the ice accrual.

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Just now, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Err. Where?? You didn't specify a location of where this would take place.

Also, didn't you say RAH wouldn't issue WSW's for Wake the other day?B)

Apologies, I meant Raleigh.  
And yea they ended up issuing WSW, but I'm still not convinced it was necessary.  I could see some snow/sleet accumulations in the morning that will be washed away by a cold rain later in the day.  I think a lot of children (mine included) are going to be disappointed.  We need to get up early and go outside because playing in the snow in a cold rain later will be miserable.

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12 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Apologies, I meant Raleigh.  
And yea they ended up issuing WSW, but I'm still not convinced it was necessary.  I could see some snow/sleet accumulations in the morning that will be washed away by a cold rain later in the day.  I think a lot of children (mine included) are going to be disappointed.  We need to get up early and go outside because playing in the snow in a cold rain later will be miserable.

I guess we'll know if the WSW was necessary within the next 18 hours or so.. :snowing:

On another note, I told my little one just now the same thing about getting out in the snow early tomorrow. But instead of cold rain, I warned her about how sleet feels when pinging off your face.

 

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3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Looks like the latest NAM is not affecting forecasts.

HRRR looks good for our area. 2z is out to be 12 and there's plus 6" totals through the Triangle. And it's still snowing. 

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17 minutes ago, bess said:

Sitting in lenoir.. cold but no snow so far :/

I drove to Hickory, Morganton, and Blowing Rock and saw decent snowfall. Friends in Wilkesboro and Taylorsville are also reporting flakes. And then I look at our radar, and what always happens here is happening once again.  Nobody's seen precip of any kind.  I really wish someone could explain the physics of why this always happens in this tiny pocket of Caldwell county.

nosnow_2200.jpg

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6 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

HRRR looks good for our area. 2z is out to be 12 and there's plus 6" totals through the Triangle. And it's still snowing. 

I would love the HRRR to be right, but is there any reason to trust it over the NAM?  I have heard it mentioned over and over that the NAM is killer with dealing with the warm nose.

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3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I would love the HRRR to be right, but is there any reason to trust it over the NAM?  I have heard it mentioned over and over that the NAM is killer with dealing with the warm nose.

Due to it's history yes the NAM has been great sniffing out the warm nose. But that doesn't mean it isn't prone to mistakes.  The HRRR has a good record too in this time frame.  could go either way

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Great news from NWS GSP for the NW piedmont:

Quote
Meanwhile...the northern
extent of the light precip can`t seem to make it into the nrn
foothills and nw Piedmont, which is only allowing temps up in that
region to cool off this evening, which means lower wet bulb temps,
which means even more certainty that precip will either start as
snow or quickly change to snow in the I-40 corridor east of the
mtns later tonite. We await more guidance before applying any
mid-course corrections.

 

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For those who might be interested, here's the link to a list of the current record snowfall event for each individual county in NC:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snowfall-extremes/NC/3

For instance, Lenoir holds the record for Caldwell county at 17".  Morganton is the record holder for Burke county with 19.3".  

On a personal note, I opted not to chase this event as it would cause me to miss an ultrasound appointment for my wife who's 21.5 weeks pregnant.   

Lastly, I'm wishing everyone luck and hope all your weenie dreams come to fruition! :)

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The latest version of the WSW for our area is quite bullish!

Quote
NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068-069-501>506-508-510-091115-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181210T1700Z/
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem,
Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point,
Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville,
Advance, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury,
Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Patterson,
Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge,
Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill,
Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood,
Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus,
and Mill Spring
1004 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow ongoing. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 15
  inches expected, with up to 20 inches on the higher ridges
  between Mount Mitchell and Beech Mountain.

* WHERE...The northern mountains of North Carolina, and a
  portion of the foothills and Piedmont between the Blue Ridge
  Escarpment and Interstate 77.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to noon Monday.

 

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Heavy snow mesoanalysis from SPC.  Bring it!

Quote
Mesoscale Discussion 1700
< Previous MD
MD 1700 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 1700
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0932 PM CST Sat Dec 08 2018

   Areas affected...Western North Carolina into extreme southwestern
   Virginia

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 090332Z - 090900Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow will develop across western NC over the next
   few hours then spread toward extreme southwestern VA. Snow rates may
   approach 1-2" per hour at times.

   DISCUSSION...Significant large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading
   from AL/TN region ahead of a progressive short-wave trough. Leading
   edge of this forcing appears to be spreading into the southern
   Appalachians at 0330z with substantial precipitation, roughly 200 mi
   wide, trailing into central AL. Back edge of this stronger zone of
   ascent is moving east at roughly 30-35kt which suggests residence
   time in this heavier precip shield may last at least 6 hours. Wedge
   of cooler air is banked against the higher terrain across western NC
   and forecast soundings suggest much of this initial precip will fall
   as snow. However, forecast soundings exhibit substantial warming at
   AVL after 10z which correlates well with back edge of aforementioned
   zone of ascent. A mix of precipitation after 10z could spread across
   the southern half of western NC. Latest HREF Ensemble guidance
   supports this scenario with snow rates approaching 1-2" per hour.

   ..Darrow.. 12/09/2018

 

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14 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

 

On a personal note, I opted not to chase this event as it would cause me to miss an ultrasound appointment for my wife who's 21.5 weeks pregnant.   

Great decision, there's nothing more special! Forget about snow, that can happen anytime. Congratulations man!

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For Guys I’m the RAH area. 

“We are sending out new WSW as we speak. The main change was to raise the storm total ice values for southern Davidson, Stanley, Randolph, Montgomery, Anson counties in particular. Values of .25 to .40 will be possible. Impacts will be numerous to potentially widespread power outages”

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