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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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23 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Updated.  Tick lower.

0B151676-D61A-4C1E-B61D-DFD45C1B0B28.png

Every shift will tweak it a bit. It is wait and see time.

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10 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Every shift will tweak it a bit. It is wait and see time.

Question is which way will it be tweaked.

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1 minute ago, mjwise said:

Not much forecasting left to do, and the only short range model to watch (HRRR) has been ticking warmer.

Uh oh, did it cave to the NAM?

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6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Uh oh, did it cave to the NAM?

Looks it to my untrained eye, but I'm looking more in VA and during the day on Sunday (watching soundings in BUFKIT) - not focusing on overnight in NC.

ETA: Latest HRRR definitely not as warm as 3km nam was earlier. I didn't realize how warm that run was.

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9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Awfully quiet in here now.

A lot have more to the obs thread since it’s nowcasting and happening now

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I know this isn't ob boars but im in greer amd ita screaming snow,....great job looks lile the fv3 nailed ot

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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Went to NWS to see if my totals ticked down, they went up for Mooresville! What in the world? Looking at the forecast, there is no changeover to sleet? I'm not following and think this busts pretty bad.  11-18 inches? lol. We'll see, FV3 for the win?

image.png.4f2a854cdce6ce2deb809b759b1b655a.png

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1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

ICON looks like at least another 2-3” on Monday 

That setup would make sense. I believe Goose said something about this happening all the time in OK and was never picked up by models. Also has it in that Feb of 14 storm which is where the bulk of snow came from in a setup a little like this one as well I believe.

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Man after all the snow we're getting this storm is not over (ICE):

As this occurs, the forecast low level partial thicknesses in the 1295 to 1305m range indicate more icing can be expected SE of the heavy snow zone in the NW add N Piedmont. That would place areas from portions of Stanly and southern Davidson ENE in an arc through portions of Randolph, northern Moore, Lee, Chatham, Wake, Durham, Franklin, Vance, Granville, and Warren at risk for 0.25+ of icing later this morning into the afternoon. Surface wet bulbs support the area from near Troy and Asheboro to NW of Sanford to near RDU and Henderson in the 32 or below through the event. This will have to be watched closely as Raleigh will be right on the 31-32 line with 33 degrees just 10-20 miles east and south.

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Man after all the snow we're getting this storm is not over (ICE):

As this occurs, the forecast low level partial thicknesses in the 1295 to 1305m range indicate more icing can be expected SE of the heavy snow zone in the NW add N Piedmont. That would place areas from portions of Stanly and southern Davidson ENE in an arc through portions of Randolph, northern Moore, Lee, Chatham, Wake, Durham, Franklin, Vance, Granville, and Warren at risk for 0.25+ of icing later this morning into the afternoon. Surface wet bulbs support the area from near Troy and Asheboro to NW of Sanford to near RDU and Henderson in the 32 or below through the event. This will have to be watched closely as Raleigh will be right on the 31-32 line with 33 degrees just 10-20 miles east and south.

Have you seen how much freezing rain Raleigh is forecast to get?

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45 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

GFS 24 hr snowfall for the second system.....this shouldnt include anything from today

gfs_asnow24_seus_6.thumb.png.7b556201d516aa8d4d1122df0a49bc06.png

As impressed as I have been thus far, this would really take the cake.  For those out east that got blanked today to walk away with 2-4" tomorrow would be incredible.  

Any other HiRes models on board with this much additional? I think I saw the HRRR may be bullish over in the Obs thread.

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17 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

As impressed as I have been thus far, this would really take the cake.  For those out east that got blanked today to walk away with 2-4" tomorrow would be incredible.  

Any other HiRes models on board with this much additional? I think I saw the HRRR may be bullish over in the Obs thread.

The FV3, ICON and HRRR all have something similar to lesser degrees....temps will be a problem and overall it probably wont be a big deal but some models do put down a few inches....

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Just now, DopplerWx said:

Hrrr still looking like a shot at some snow tonight Into tomorrow

Amounts?

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Noticed some models reacting to the original upper level energy crossing NC tomorrow as the late diving ull from Canada rounds the bend to our south.

Some localized area blobs of hot pink color maxing the snow range on the legend.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_26.png

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Hrrr looks really good for late tonight with the back end. 3k nam showing it too. Hope it can help put down a legit 1-2”’of snow for those of us who got the shaft.

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