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neilpappas75

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  1. neilpappas75
    We had nice snow here in Reidville for about 2 hours, now heavy sleet.
  2. neilpappas75
    Great info. Does it show for how many feet/meters that it is above freezing?
  3. neilpappas75
    Agree completely, which is where I got my totals. But the thing that worries me is that the models are picking up the heavy precip, which should compensate enough with the winds, but there are not changing those numbers.
  4. neilpappas75
    I think it's because all the thicknesses are too high even all the way up to around Virginia. And every 6 hours, they get better, but not good enough.
  5. neilpappas75
    I used to be good at this before I moved to the sunshine state. I am now back, partly to see snow. My last predictions were way off back about 11 years ago, but before that, I was spot on a lot. I think we can all forgot frz rn. We, meaning, anyone not below the foothills or upstate of SC. So anyone there or north. I do believe that looking at the thicknesses, sleet is going to play a huge part. That can bring down totals. But I do not think the people in SC are going to have a define transition line like they are telling us. So northern Spartanburg or Greenville counties will get about the same amount of snow as middle parts IMO. It may be a small difference, but not much. Unless the track takes a different path. Because to me the small difference in temps at 850 or wet bulb will be met with the velocity of the precip for the more southern folks. Not counting mountain tops, I think the gold spots will start about Weaverville NC to Statesville NC, up to around Boone and Wilkesboro. I think they can expect a solid 18 inches. With locally more or less. In the Upstate of SC, I think the southern parts of the counties will see 4 inches, and the upper with 10 plus locally. I expect GSP to get around 11 inches of snow with around 6-9 of that measurable. Depending on when the sleet mixes in and what time. How it ends. I am crossing fingers here. And I might be a little snow happy so my totals might need a snow lovers adjustment LOL. GL guys.
  6. neilpappas75
    So unusual that all the models are not in alignment at this point. Or at least so far apart with some. The precip now is just gonna be virga, but that is a good. CAD will set up quicker. But could also be a problem with the early precip not heavy, and not forcing the temps down quick enough.
  7. neilpappas75
    Have to agree. That's what I have been concerned about the entire time. There is enough QPF. But the temps are delicate.
  8. neilpappas75
    TY
  9. neilpappas75
    What site are you using? I cannot load the FV3 at either site.
  10. neilpappas75
    It seems as though all the models are starting to follow suite with the original FV3 model, which has not changed much since it first came out. The NAM and CMC are starting to fill in just like the FV3. Even the original GFS is starting to follow. Storm track lower, High pressure stronger=incredible situation. Now if we can avoid the CAD from killing the moisture.
  11. neilpappas75
    The FV3 started with Rock Hill at 28", then it moved to 20, then 17. But it also has had NE Ga going up on totals a little at a time. Telling me the CAD they are thinking is setting up a little sooner, and will be fierce. That is good for some, bad for others. CMC has a broader range of snow then it did Wednesday, but a slightly smaller one then earlier. But the depth is greater. The 12z NAM doesn't seem to be quite as broad, but now they are starting to have 12 plus inches into Greenville and Spartanburg Counties. But that is falling, not how much on ground of course.
  12. neilpappas75
    I agree. I have seen some fine tuning, but overall, consistent.
  13. neilpappas75
    But we need to all get along children. Some of us are just more skeptical because we have been there, and done that. Gotten disappointed too many times. Others still have that child like hope. We are all here for the same reasons, obviously.
  14. neilpappas75
    Honestly NAM is the one model that will consistently account more for the CAD then any other. And I think these warmer models are for that simple fact. It is trying to account for CAD, but it does not know the exact time and how quickly it will set up. If it's too early, it will dry out the air beyond belief. If it's too late, then it wastes moisture and lets the warm air override. Also tricky where and how strong it is. By looking at the models, I don't think there is any way to forecast certain areas as of yet.
  15. neilpappas75
    That's because they take CAD more into account then others. We are all trying to jump ahead of ourselves with the tweaking of each model. Any of us who have been around awhile knows that there are many variables alive at this point. And we know that almost every piece has to happen, in the right order, for even a hint of a big snow storm for most of us. Most models are in agreement, but they are also so close to having a little of everything. So it comes down to what almost every snow storm comes down to here...location , location, location. I'm seeing a wet bulb forecast right below freezing from Northern Laurens all the way north. And the dew point just below that. Nam is showing classic CAD, which would be good if the wet bulb is correct, but could also present problems. If the CAD sets up too quickly, the air dries out. If it moves in too slowly, the low pressure warm air will probably be too much. Although I do not think they 2nd part will happen because I do not see this storm moving more north like they have been thinking. I think we are still very uncertain either way. With it having a chance to be snow bound 88 all over again, to another crazy ice storm. I do think the more West you are, without getting out of the CAD areas, the better chance you got if you are not in the mountains of WNC. Let's just all cross our fingers, or go stay at a Walmart in Asheville LOL
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