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stormtracker

March 11-12 Potential Storm

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Ha, lots of bi-polar statements about that run. But 1 inch in DC and a few south of DC might as well be 0 in mid March with marginal temps. I don't like that it is speeding up and the 50/50 isn't lifting north.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I can't say I'm thrilled.  But I'm not bummed either.  I think 12z tomorrow is the real deal.  We still got time troops. 

agreed.  couple subtle shifts in either direction yield a large difference in IMBY snow totals for many.

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Im sure most of you realize we are painstakingly close now to a SECS+ system turning the corner and impacting a widespread area. Whether we get there or not who knows but there is a TON of time left.....over 3 days even 4 on some guidance.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I can't say I'm thrilled.  But I'm not bummed either.  I think 12z tomorrow is the real deal.  We still got time troops. 

Need more time than 12Z tomorrow to resolve this. GFS has gone back n forth the past few days.

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3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

So if my understanding is correct, the 50/50 low screwed this run? 

There were a couple things that were just a bit off to make it not work.

1. The confluence held on a little bit too long to our north which suppressed the flow which directly impacts (2)

2. The SS ran out ahead of the NS SW delaying a phase and creating a broad neutral/pos tilt trough in a location where we need it to start going negative in order to bring the low up the coast. We need higher heights out front which would come from the 50/50 lifting out in time to help slow down the SS to allow for the phase earlier.

3. There is a pesky SW up in the lakes that seems to contribute to lowering heights a bit.

 

This seems like a lot of things that aren't in our favor but the adjustments to improve these factors are relatively minor at this lead time. Sometimes strong convection from these storms as they tap into the gulf cause a lot of latent heat release and pump up a ridge out in front that can help bring on a north trend as we get closer to game time.

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9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, it's too close (and too far a lead) to give up now.   

we dont actually need a "NORTH" trend...it gets far enough north this run, but it transfers (jumps) too far east off the SC coast then comes north at a longitude that is bad for us.  But were talking a MINOR itsy bitsy adjustment to this run and were getting bombed.  Get that low to come NNE just INSIDE Hatteras instead of just outside...with that same exact trajectory and tuck/capture at the end...basically get it tucked in against the delmarva instead of 50 miles off the coast and...boom.  I also still think the models are too suppressive with the qpf so that will help come gametime.  I am ok with this run.  The issues with the 50/50 and suppression are real but were so close with only minor adjustments needed.  I am sticking with what I said...keep this close today.  Keep it just under us but where we can smell it...and I think were ok.  This run was a positive IMO.  But I want to see other guidance support.  Icon was a win too I guess. 

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3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

So we finally get the stronger, more amped SLP and we can’t get that to cooperate. Sigh.

This isnt over yet man.  Just one run, and IMO, with the exception of the NS LP hangin tight, this was NOT a bad run for this lead time.

 

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5 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Need more time than 12Z tomorrow to resolve this. GFS has gone back n forth the past few days.

Eh, maybe...but data onshore, all that stuff.  Weenie handbook....if there are going to be big changes, that would be when.

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the storm looks better on paper but the back yard results is a disaster. a 6 hour period of light snow isng going to do it. the 12z ICOn was way better. GFS precip is terrible

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It is painful. If we were really trending better I would be all like "It will turn north" and excited. But we are seeing multiple variables starting to go against us. That seems to be the trend here.. just because we had one better run on strength and thus a bit of a pull, in general, I am not seeing variables lining up to save this thing! If anything it seems less impressive over a large area and not going the right way! Maybe it trends better, but too many hopes on too many items usually ends in heartbreak. We know luck is always needed! 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

we dont actually need a "NORTH" trend...it gets far enough north this run, but it transfers (jumps) too far east off the SC coast then comes north at a longitude that is bad for us.  But were talking a MINOR itsy bitsy adjustment to this run and were getting bombed.  Get that low to come NNE just INSIDE Hatteras instead of just outside...with that same exact trajectory and tuck/capture at the end...basically get it tucked in against the delmarva instead of 50 miles off the coast and...boom.  I also still think the models are too suppressive with the qpf so that will help come gametime.  I am ok with this run.  The issues with the 50/50 and suppression are real but were so close with only minor adjustments needed.  I am sticking with what I said...keep this close today.  Keep it just under us but where we can smell it...and I think were ok.  This run was a positive IMO.  But I want to see other guidance support.  Icon was a win too I guess. 

So it's just like Jan 4th, where the low was at a good spot for snow, but the trajectory of the low screws our area?

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4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

What about tonight at 0z?

If it comes in suppressed, it'll be a morale killer for sure, but honestly..I'd wait before feeling totally pessimistic.  Notice I didn't say "before we give up"...because we're all snow weenies..nobody is going to ever truly give up until the time it starts snowing to our south and the radar shows it moving due east. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

we dont actually need a "NORTH" trend...it gets far enough north this run, but it transfers (jumps) too far east off the SC coast then comes north at a longitude that is bad for us.  But were talking a MINOR itsy bitsy adjustment to this run and were getting bombed.  Get that low to come NNE just INSIDE Hatteras instead of just outside...with that same exact trajectory and tuck/capture at the end...basically get it tucked in against the delmarva instead of 50 miles off the coast and...boom.  I also still think the models are too suppressive with the qpf so that will help come gametime.  I am ok with this run.  The issues with the 50/50 and suppression are real but were so close with only minor adjustments needed.  I am sticking with what I said...keep this close today.  Keep it just under us but where we can smell it...and I think were ok.  This run was a positive IMO.  But I want to see other guidance support.  Icon was a win too I guess. 

we just need the low over the upper low not to stall and actually shift a couple of degrees latitude closer to Nova Scotia.  It's the reason why out storm moves east too much before turning.  As you say, we don't need a huge change but we do need that feature to get a little out of the way. 

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GFS has a closed 500mb low passage right through central/southern VA. That’s classic for DC-Baltimore snow events. I’ll take my chances with it.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Eh, maybe...but data onshore, all that stuff.  Weenie handbook....if there are going to be big changes, that would be when.

But we don't need big changes.  The models are keying in on all the players that will be on the field.  Minor adjustments are likely.  The question is whether they are in our favor or not. 

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3 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

we just need the low over the upper low not to stall and actually shift a couple of degrees latitude closer to Nova Scotia.  It's the reason why out storm moves east too much before turning.  As you say, we don't need a huge change but we do need that feature to get a little out of the way. 

thanks Wes.  Thats what I was trying to say earlier.  No matter how well the storm matures, if it cant gain latitude, the other stuff matters little.

I dont think thats impossible at this lead time.  Thats why I'm feeling ok w/ this run.

Hope we hear more from you on this one.

 

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS has a closed 500mb low passage right through central/southern VA. That’s classic for DC-Baltimore snow events. I’ll take my chances with it.

Agree...thought h5 was a small improvement.  Surface is probably lagging .....and underdone on the nw side . Im fine with the run 

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9 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

But we don't need big changes.  The models are keying in on all the players that will be on the field.  Minor adjustments are likely.  The question is whether they are in our favor or not. 

Ok, rephrase....big changes

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I know everyone is saying we don’t need a lot for a little shift north but I’m not loving that pretty much all the OPs show the same southern look...you would think you could find something that hits us decently flush. Seems like a big signal to me 

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2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I know everyone is saying we don’t need a lot for a little shift north but I’m not loving that pretty much all the OPs show the same southern look...you would think you could find something that hits us decently flush. Seems like a big signal to me 

Yeah I do find it concerning that the models seem to be coming to more of a consensus. The GFS is coming more in line with the other models. Now, they could also certainly shift north over the next few days but I'd like to see a bullseye a little farther north than we are seeing right now. Even the GFS has the bullseye in southwest Virginia. I want it farther north than that.

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