psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I didnt see anyone mention this mornings RGEM run. But it looks much better than the NAM as far as LP position goes. I am not trying to extrapolate. But at 12Z Saturday it has a stronger vort in a better position for us IMO. I agree the rgem was headed towards a good result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 A couple thoughts: For me personally, it is much easier to track March storms than January/February storms. I've already kind of gotten over winter to an extent and know that any snow we receive in March is lucky. It makes a whiff easier to deal with than in the dead of winter. I know spring if right around the corner and I'll be giving up the chase soon. We really should have a good idea by 0z tonight if we are still in the game or we're really trending to a suppressed mess. The mesos should be in range and all pieces will be sampled well. I'd hold off jumping off the ledge until 0z tonight even if things come in more suppressed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 FWIW, seems Cranky isn't feeling this one at all. Even if it seems to take the north track, he seems to think it's just rain for us and not very impactful anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @showmethesnow I agree with your post about the general setup but with one exception... I don't like that stuff I circled in red Everything else is fine. The 50/50 is good and its moving out/relaxing as the storm approaches...perfect timing. The ridge out west is plenty far enough west to allow this to bomb up the coast. Everything is there... and I have to thank Ian last night for helping me clarify what it was about the flow that I juts wasn't liking. A few days ago just looking at the h5 progression I "SAW" how major amplification far enough north for us was favored. Then the last day or so when I was looking at the h5 progression and looping things it just didn't look right. I could see how the whole thing sliding out under us was possible when I was just looking and getting a feel for how the flow of the waves felt. I know that isn't uber scientific but sometimes I just like to loop things and look at it and let it pop out where things should go. That crap diving in right on top of us is the problem IMO. Its pressing down on the whole thing as its trying to amplify. If this fails that is going to be the biggest culprit IMO. Remove that or dive it in slower, or further west...and there is room for that whole thing to come north. But if that is pressing down on it, its going to slide east under it then phase and bomb up off New England. But thats one thing...it could easily trend slower, or west and then its not a problem. But I don't like it there one bit. Definitely can see what you are saying with that feature sliding down out of Canada and its possible impacts. But I do have to question if in fact the slower 50/50 is the culprit here. Have some other things to do so I don't have the time to diagram it out but will try to explain as best I can. If you look at hour 84 on the 06z vs. the 90hr on the 00z. Notice the stronger ridging/heights between the 50/50 and the energy dropping down from N Canada (especially to the se of the that energy dropping in). We are seeing this because of the slower departing 50/50. What this is doing is hindering that energy's natural tendency to drop towards our trough in the Midwest and instead is redirecting it more easterly. So instead of this feature dropping more westerly towards the trough as seen on previous runs we are now seeing it drop ore easterly where it could possibly become a concern. I honestly believe, if all things stay roughly the same that if we see a slightly quicker departing 50/50 we will see a world of improvement. But that is just my opinion for whatever it is worth. Again sorry for the lack of visual aids, hope you can get the jist of what I am saying. eta: And as I see it we are not talking much of an adjustment as far as speed on that departing low to have a very meaningful impact with results for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 He hasn't even looked at the storm since 3/3 or 3/5. He's been way too focused on the miller b. Re: Cranky post above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 EPS snowfall isn't as awful as i was expecting given what the euro did overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @showmethesnow I agree with your post about the general setup but with one exception... I don't like that stuff I circled in red Everything else is fine. The 50/50 is good and its moving out/relaxing as the storm approaches...perfect timing. The ridge out west is plenty far enough west to allow this to bomb up the coast. Everything is there... and I have to thank Ian last night for helping me clarify what it was about the flow that I juts wasn't liking. A few days ago just looking at the h5 progression I "SAW" how major amplification far enough north for us was favored. Then the last day or so when I was looking at the h5 progression and looping things it just didn't look right. I could see how the whole thing sliding out under us was possible when I was just looking and getting a feel for how the flow of the waves felt. I know that isn't uber scientific but sometimes I just like to loop things and look at it and let it pop out where things should go. That crap diving in right on top of us is the problem IMO. Its pressing down on the whole thing as its trying to amplify. If this fails that is going to be the biggest culprit IMO. Remove that or dive it in slower, or further west...and there is room for that whole thing to come north. But if that is pressing down on it, its going to slide east under it then phase and bomb up off New England. But thats one thing...it could easily trend slower, or west and then its not a problem. But I don't like it there one bit. yea man...ive been talking about that for days. I always felt like that diving in was having a negative impact on us do its terrible timing. But not sure how you get rid of it..it huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I didnt see anyone mention this mornings RGEM run. But it looks much better than the NAM as far as LP position goes. I am not trying to extrapolate. But at 12Z Saturday it has a stronger vort in a better position for us IMO. 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree the rgem was headed towards a good result. Well if we're extrapolating the RGEM... Looks better than the 06z GGEM at that time. Normally I'd give more weight to the GGEM, but there was a period during this last storm when the extended RGEM seemed to have a better handle on the storm than the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I think this has until the 0Z package tonight to come back together - that's when the vort comes ashore in BC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 24 minutes ago, mappy said: I know we are all at our wits end this winter with the lack of snow, but lets try to make decent, thought provoking posts. Explain your stance, why you think its going to do what it does, etc etc. We have a banter thread for people to joke and carry on in. Please and thanks! - sick and cranky "management" ill take the low in southern colorado for 500 alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Where are you getting the extended RGEM from? I dont have that link for some reason? Or I just cant find it in the hundred of other weather bookmarks I have Edit: NVM it is on the map Oh man. That site is in French. I shouldnt have taken 4 years of German in high school. It does nothing to help with my weather obsession Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 hours ago, mappy said: lol I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 it might be worth it for a miss to hear an epic rant from @psuhoffman. If they are anything like his political rants......:popcorn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 This is the kind of setup where southerns could score big, while Mappy gets skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 36 minutes ago, anotherman said: You are so right. Who am I kidding? lol. Darn sport. NAO has been long awaited, and watch it push this one south. If this becomes a MA special, while I'll be glad for them.....I quit. living in the N/S jip zone, is tough sledding. (had to add some meteo perspective, because I/we are being trolled by management .... ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: ill take the low in southern colorado for 500 alex at least you have a 1:4 chance of "winning". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 JB wont be referencing the Brazilian Model for this storm--Fail https://weather.us/model-charts/bra/usa/sea-level-pressure/20180312-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 FWIW, Nam ejects a more consolidated SW than 6z at 51 through Northern Nevada/Utah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Australian Model though---my goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: This is the kind of setup where southerns could score big, while Mappy gets skunked. yeah this setup could be a southern special. While the NAO isnt raging neg (-1), I'm wondering how well it can gain latitude with the lack of ridging modelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The northern stream on the 12z NAM appears to be a hair further west at the hour 54 mark. Nothing huge IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The 500 mb lobe dropping south out of the lakes region is really acting like a bulldog. The feature has become more pronounced over the past few model cycles and does seem to limit the ability of this storm to amplify or gain much latitude. It is a concern, and it's a big feature. Secondly, with the marginal air in place those of us without elevation won't score much if any accumulation if rates are light, even with .25"-.30" qpf. With this airmass in place we probably need .75" - 1.5" qpf to see a decent accumulation. Models still have room for some improvement and we could still score a moderate to major march snowfall if that 500 MB lobe diving south out of east Canada is weaker or further west as Hoffman pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 i think NAM will be better....the flow looks slightly better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 This has become an NS storm... what happened to the SS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Nam is hanging back that NS SW in the plains a touch. It's way out there in NAM time but I liked the stronger SS SW this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: This has become an NS storm... what happened to the SS? huh? its there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 NAM not being in the Gulf of Texas is an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: i think NAM will be better....the flow looks slightly better than 6z Eh, I don't think so...it will scrape us. I think we're skunked this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Eh, I don't think so...it will scrape us. I think we're skunked this run. NS a little late to the party. SS was better though so 1 step forward, 1 step back it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: This is the kind of setup where southerns could score big, while Mappy gets skunked. hey, friend! How's your snow totals doing? Good I hope! xo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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