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Everything posted by eurojosh

  1. All the models I've seen today make this a close play for our section of I95. Absolutely on the margins. Shift east 30 miles and we bullseye, shift west by the same amount and we'll be lucky to get a couple of sloppy inches. My gut says that's bad news at gametime - I think maybe 1 in 5 like this break our way?
  2. A fair amount of wishcasting going on in the December thread on how to make the GFS and Euro look like the GEM....
  3. Icon well positioned for the same just after the run ends. Would be surprised to still see this as a possibility after a couple more runs, though - I don't think our climo is as favorable as it was in 1987...!
  4. How is it possible no one is posting about the 18z gfs?
  5. Pulling the trigger on Blue Knob. Wednesday's gonna be beast.
  6. I'm counting on this storm. Thinking about taking Tues-Thurs off and heading either to Blue Knob (CAD) or Timberline (Coastal) or not and going to fing work (cutter).
  7. Maybe but it's hard to find those Tweets among his various insights on Constitutional law.
  8. Someone should go back and calculate the seasonal average ratios of posts to inches. I bet this one would rank pretty high.
  9. Is the old chestnut that the Euro handles southern stream better, the GFS northern, still thought to be (or ever thought to be) true?
  10. Don't beat yourself up. There is actually some predictive value to the early frames, but I find it's more useful to avoid the precip panels and start high. Take a look, for instance, at the steering flow itself, the 250mb pattern. Compare 36 on the NAM and 42 on the 18z GFS. On the NAM you can see there's a piece of energy over Chicago (etc); on the GFS, it's not there. It's always a guessing game, but what that piece of energy ends up doing is forcing the NAM south; without it there, the GFS flow is more flat, allowing the energy in the west to ride straight across country, and further north by the time it reaches the Atlantic.
  11. The ICON's single most valuable addition to the suite is to give the particularly impatient something to look at in between the mesos and the GFS.
  12. Meh. Move the LP in the first of those KUs 50 miles south and I'd agree with you.
  13. The nice thing is that after Friday we can go back to focusing on the storm after the storm after the storm.
  14. Technically doesn't it actually run through DC, with erosion accounting for the current position of Great Falls?
  15. Seems doubly odd because virga would bring down temps via mixing, no?
  16. is nobody going to woof about the 18z GFS? NE of Balt in particular is in luck, though there's an embedded line of FRZ amidst the snow for DCA.
  17. ICON remains relatively anemic for tomorrow, FWIW. Seems warmer and less dynamic than the NAMs.
  18. Yes - NAM is a good hit, even after a little rain, plenty of frozen after 20z for the metro region.
  19. That's an odd extratropical cyclone hitting northern California next weekend on the GFS...
  20. Speaking of which, check out the temps post-passage. Coldest I've seen it here in a long time.
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