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eurojosh

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  1. Had to look that one up! So, a drop in stage 2. Per Noaa ESRL: The four primary phases of the GWO are described below, along with generally cold season (November-March) probable weather impacts for the USA. The GWO recurrence interval, or "time it takes to make a circuit", ranges from a broad 15-80 days. Two of the stages project strongly on El Nino and La Nina circulation states, which are also characterized by positive (Stage 3 below) and negative (Stage 1 below) global AAM anomalies, respectively. Stages 2 and 4 are transitional. Stage 1 (La-Nina like) – the global relative AAM anomaly is negative. The negative anomaly is primarily due to easterly upper level wind anomalies that extend from the Eastern Hemisphere tropics to the Western Hemisphere mid-latitudes. A retracted Pacific Ocean jet stream is a key feature in the total field. Troughs are probable across the western USA with a ridge over the southeast. High impact weather is favored across the Plains. Stage 2 – the global relative AAM tendency is positive. This means that negative AAM is being removed from the atmosphere by surface friction and mountains. At the same time, westerly wind anomalies are intensifying in equatorial regions of the Western Hemisphere. Fast Rossby wave dispersion events in both hemispheres are a coherent feature of this stage and Stage 4. A cold regime is probable across the central USA. Stage 3 (El-Nino like) – the global relative AAM anomaly is positive. Westerly wind anomalies move into the Eastern Hemisphere, broaden in latitudinal extent and link up with deep westerly flow anomalies over the mid-latitude Western Hemisphere. An extended Pacific Ocean jet stream and southward shifted storm track is observed favoring high impact weather events along the USA west coast. Stage 4 – the global relative AAM tendency is negative. Positive (westerly) AAM anomalies are being removed by surface friction in the Western Hemisphere mid-latitudes and through mountain torques across the Northern Hemisphere topography. The next phase of the oscillation (if there is one) is represented by easterly wind anomalies intensifying over equatorial regions of the Western Hemisphere. This stage has enhanced subtropical jets and closed lows in the subtropics favoring rainfall events over the southwestern USA.
  2. Really awesome post, @showmethesnow. Is there any reason to hope that older years in that dataset would become less relevant due to increases in SSTs off the east coast compared to the 1950s or 60s? I'm trying to find data to support that assumption (great incidental read here, btw: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do%3Fid%3D79624%26pt%3D10%26p%3D52174&ved=0ahUKEwiPhbX1_tDWAhVRyWMKHfBgDq0QFghAMAM&usg=AFQjCNF-hN_NqI5nBolMpU3MjgBaTyjVCg) but haven't yet done so. If a degree or two in SSTs does make a difference however, that should be regardless of the Pacific Nina and North Atlantic blocking at a local impact level... I think... ______________ I think therefore I wishcast....
  3. I've looked at the 0z models. And I've looked at the 6z GFS. And everything i see takes Maria clearly and directly OTS - more directly than the same models 24hrs ago. Not sure what others are seeing that suggests otherwise, minor adjustments to track aside. Eta- happy to be proven wrong. Monster up the Chesapeake would be awesome. Just don't see it... anywhere.
  4. As do the Euro, Cmc and 6z GFS. Not even close. /thread.
  5. What's the pressure like out West? Low. Low low low. Low low low low low. Low low low low low. Low.
  6. Nearing NC landfall at 216 at 928mb. Seems like it could be acceptable for our area... Edit - turns sharp right and scrapes the OBX and... Edit 2 - scoots OTS.
  7. Euro quite GFS-like. Jose boots Maria ots then meanders ashore here as an extremely weak system.
  8. Lol Euro. Maria fujiwharas posttropical Jose back towards the midatlantic from the NE.
  9. Through the end of its run, 6z GFS has no fewer than 4 TCs that affect the EC or Gulf Coast. Not taking it verbatim, but it's an active pattern with some potential for sure!
  10. Yep. If that's right, Jose, having formed on September 5th, will be making a real run at the 27-day record for longest lasting Atlantic TC. 31 days the global record, I believe.
  11. OTS on GFS and CMC
  12. Equally applicable in winter tbh
  13. This is worth reading. http://www.chron.com/local/gray-matters/article/I-downloaded-an-app-And-suddenly-I-was-talking-12172506.php