SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The Surface Low is NW of 6z at 66 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 66, much stronger SS, but that 50/50 is not helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 66h looks better than the 06z run for sure. Coming in on a more northerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Yeah the 50/50 pushing down more is not going to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, LP08 said: 66, much stronger SS, but that 50/50 is not helping. Yep. That 50/50 low is hanging back to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Kmlwx said: Yeah the 50/50 pushing down more is not going to help. Better stream interaction however, maybe it can bully its way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Kmlwx said: Yeah the 50/50 pushing down more is not going to help. It's a bit of a wash. SW is slower and low is further north but the road block to the NE is further west so the battleground hasn't changed much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 994 at 72h in NW MS. It's stronger and more west northwest than the previous run. Typically, amped = good in past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 75 998mb SLP NW AL/S TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 The thing that we need is the thing that's killing us. Only in the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Yeah the 50/50 pushing down more is not going to help. looks like it may still be south...for now...but maybe this can take a last minute jog north like jan 2010 did if the northeast low relaxes a bit. might need a slower system for this to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 SLP in S TN at 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: 994 at 72h in NW MS. It's stronger and more west northwest than the previous run. Typically, amped = good in past runs. Seems like amped early is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Looked good at 72, but now at 78 looks like the NS is squeezing it south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 More north, more amped, more west. I'm not focusing too much on the upper dynamics, these three things have in the past signaled good runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 81 Transfer starting off of SC. Not gonna be gd for us I dont think. The entire precip shield is shunted on the north side of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I worry that the vortex now over the northeast may be just a little too far west to allow our shortwave room to come north and its proximity is what ends up shearing our trough a little too much to get the bext precip to us. just said that in my other subforum. its hanging around too long that no matter how the NS vort pops in, it may all be for naught, as that LP is going to push this thing due east off the MA coast. I sure hope it scoots but this has to be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 Well, the low is north of 6z, but still doesn't look too hot to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: 81 Transfer starting off of SC. Not gonna be gd for us I dont think. The entire precip shield is shunted on the north side of the low. Dang. I'm not there yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Archambault event delayed.....neg NAO hanging strong for another 5-10. Hang tight. Not a bad thing. Um. That puts us to around March 20...so, that's a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: looks like it may still be south...for now...but maybe this can take a last minute jog north like jan 2010 did if the northeast low relaxes a bit. might need a slower system for this to work out. which is easier---to get the 50/50 low to move out...or to get the phasing/ss action that we are seeing now on GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The phase is a bit slow so the trough doesn't look like it's able to tighten up and go negative in time but it sure is close, very minor timing differences would yield very different results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, eurojosh said: Looked good at 72, but now at 78 looks like the NS is squeezing it south again. Yep, 78 looks like precip shield will stay squashed. Expansion close to onset is of course almost always the case though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 The best we can hope for now is that the models are overdoing our 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Yeah 84h looks like it might just transfer right on over, pretty far east, not giving it a chance to get at us. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: The thing that we need is the thing that's killing us. Only in the mid atlantic. Two things right? A -NAO that doesn't break down when we need it...and the 50/50 that's too strong... mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 THat ULL in NE of Maine needs to lift out quicker. It's just a road block for anything to make it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, the low is north of 6z, but still doesn't look too hot to me It's a wash man but not on the outside looking in yet. At least another 24 hours before we can declare it one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 it's definitely really close and if there's room for a north trend i would think this is one of those storms. not like north into PA, but enough to get the northern MA into the game at the last minute. who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: More north, more amped, more west. I'm not focusing too much on the upper dynamics, these three things have in the past signaled good runs. Wait...are you saying you're not focusing on what is arguably the most important level for tracking these things (500mb)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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