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kurtstack

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Everything posted by kurtstack

  1. Well the GFS twins keep plenty of cold around through the end of the run... maybe something can time up right in the next couple weeks.
  2. Understatement of the winter right there!
  3. This is a thread the needle event. I think we will see the old windshield washer effect on the models with a variety of tracks next few days, but as always we will need a little luck to land on the right side of the boundry. We have had a decent amount of luck this winter so monday may just pan out.
  4. This has become more of a therapy session thread at this point.
  5. e8 has a white dot over Ji's house.
  6. if o recall correctly commutegeddon was a march snowfall and my temps when living in arlington never went below freezing yet 7-8” of snow stuck to the roads...
  7. kurtstack

    2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

    3” in burke light snow falling
  8. February 29th 2024. Serious question though, we have a feb 29 coming up in 2020. Have we ever had snow on Feb 29?
  9. Extremely disappointing run Ice-skating on sidewalks is always a good time.
  10. kurtstack

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    moderate snow in burke a nice coating on everything. Already beat my expectations for snow.
  11. wow! I dont often see you go out in a limb like that Bob. Anyway here’s hoping that limb is a strong one. For the sake if the emotions in this subforum i really do hope you are onto something!
  12. kurtstack

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    Time to hug the JMA
  13. This is exactly what I would expect with these types of storms, but it's worth tracking because it's all we have on the menu at this point...
  14. kurtstack

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    7” in burke with steady light snow falling. radar and models suggest 1-3” more may be on the way.
  15. kurtstack

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    not an all snow setup but with that cad it does have the look of a warning level winter storm! Trends will be fun to watch this week.
  16. kurtstack

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    6” measured in burke. We will see if we can add anything to it today, but even if we dont this was an awesome event love it!! Hopefully this is just the beginning of a noce 6 week period!
  17. kurtstack

    January Banter 2019

    I can relate. I have three (5, 3, 7mo). i just finished the chaotic night routine that started at 9:00!
  18. kurtstack

    January Banter 2019

    Im really looking forward to the snow this weekend. Credit to psu for doing the research and never (well maybe slightly at one point) losing faith in his analog research for this type of winter starting about jan 20th. Lets hope its one of those really active backloaded winters. good luck all you snow weenies! wishing you all three feet of cold powder this weekend! Props to bob chill too for never quitting even when the pacific air was overwhelming the conus. cheers to all the others as well who havent committed their weenie suicides yet. CHEERS!
  19. kurtstack

    December Banter 2018

    $30 seems a bit high, but it is excellent.
  20. kurtstack

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    There were some very positive developments in the 12z GFS regarding ridge trough locations overall. It will be interesting if the ensembles start trending toward the trough in east ridge in the west look.
  21. kurtstack

    December 9/10 Storm

    this is not necessarily scientific but i was in altoona, pa for the march storm and for the november storm and both times models had em on the northern fringe - forecasts 24 hours out were for a couple inches of snow - in both cases they ended up getting 10”+. forecast confidence for the fringe areas of storms is mighty low - its probably the most difficult area for forecasters with any storm.
  22. kurtstack

    December 9/10 Storm

    Yup the models are pretty much in agreement. That being said ive seen the models all in agreement at 4 days and then all shift together in one model cycle. So there is still a slim chance. However we probably need to see that happen at some point tomorrow. Still think there is a slim shot we score.
  23. kurtstack

    December 9/10 Storm

    we have numerous examples of beinf in the bullseye 4 days out only to see our storm end up too far north by gametime. not saying thats the case but we have been burned many times inside of this range.
  24. kurtstack

    December 9/10 Storm

    we are still well outside of the range where we can throw in the towel on this. While the odds dont look good the northern stream is still jumping around with every model run and there is time for that to become better modeled. Bottom line the odds are not great but i wouldnt toss in the towel unless this model run occurred 72 hours out.
  25. kurtstack

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    We are well within the standard deviation of all the globals right now. Also the models generally dont handle the northern stream very well at range so we are still a day or two away from a good idea of what the northern stream will do. Its a big player in this equation so we are just gonna have to give it some time. its pretty clear the southern stream is gonna have what we need. Overall just gotta wait and see how this evolves over the coming days, but all the players are on the table and whoever gets into snow will likely see heavy snow with this.
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