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About kurtstack

  • Birthday 11/12/1978

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Burke, VA
  • Interests
    Closed off 850 mb Low heights southeast of Washington D.C.

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  1. kurtstack

    December Banter 2018

    $30 seems a bit high, but it is excellent.
  2. kurtstack

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    There were some very positive developments in the 12z GFS regarding ridge trough locations overall. It will be interesting if the ensembles start trending toward the trough in east ridge in the west look.
  3. kurtstack

    December 9/10 Storm

    this is not necessarily scientific but i was in altoona, pa for the march storm and for the november storm and both times models had em on the northern fringe - forecasts 24 hours out were for a couple inches of snow - in both cases they ended up getting 10”+. forecast confidence for the fringe areas of storms is mighty low - its probably the most difficult area for forecasters with any storm.
  4. kurtstack

    December 9/10 Storm

    Yup the models are pretty much in agreement. That being said ive seen the models all in agreement at 4 days and then all shift together in one model cycle. So there is still a slim chance. However we probably need to see that happen at some point tomorrow. Still think there is a slim shot we score.
  5. kurtstack

    December 9/10 Storm

    we have numerous examples of beinf in the bullseye 4 days out only to see our storm end up too far north by gametime. not saying thats the case but we have been burned many times inside of this range.
  6. kurtstack

    December 9/10 Storm

    we are still well outside of the range where we can throw in the towel on this. While the odds dont look good the northern stream is still jumping around with every model run and there is time for that to become better modeled. Bottom line the odds are not great but i wouldnt toss in the towel unless this model run occurred 72 hours out.
  7. kurtstack

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    We are well within the standard deviation of all the globals right now. Also the models generally dont handle the northern stream very well at range so we are still a day or two away from a good idea of what the northern stream will do. Its a big player in this equation so we are just gonna have to give it some time. its pretty clear the southern stream is gonna have what we need. Overall just gotta wait and see how this evolves over the coming days, but all the players are on the table and whoever gets into snow will likely see heavy snow with this.
  8. kurtstack

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    We are still a few days from pinning down the northern stream, but I'm happy we are in the game at this point.
  9. kurtstack

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Im going to go with the models fringing hoffman day 6 rule of thumb. We are in a good spot with todays models.
  10. kurtstack

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Northern stream came in like mike tyson on that gfs run
  11. kurtstack

    November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

    Hey guys - I'm back for the winter. I usually don't drop in here until December 15th, but I looked at the AO and NAO indices and it's telling me we are going to have some early season events to track. Good to be back and always good to read your great posts. I'll be lurking and reading most of the winter, but happy to be back tracking with you all.
  12. Ah Euro is showing 20" of snow, what's new... lol
  13. kurtstack

    March 11-12 Potential Storm

    very positive nam developments in the first 24-48 hours which is really the useful range of the nam. This is a good stsrt to the 12z suite. Lets hope the more reliable models follow th nams lead
  14. kurtstack

    March 11-12 Potential Storm

    i think there are only two outcomes left the no phase slider (ukie and nam) or the phased gfs type - i dont think there will be many solutions in between. Its all or nothing.
  15. kurtstack

    March 11-12 Potential Storm

    more details please