Jump to content

usedtobe

Meteorologist
  • Content count

    8,694
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by usedtobe

  1. usedtobe

    November 15-16 First Frozen Obs/Nowcast

    got a whopping 0.60" of snow and then the deluge started. Not a good day, our thoughts two days ago were better than those yesterday. Kind of a bust.
  2. usedtobe

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    The Euro seasonal does look really interesting. While I'm not a big proponent of Nino meaning we end up snowy. Such a 500H anomaly pattern would suggest enough cold air for Miller A type storms.
  3. usedtobe

    July Discobs Thread

    Starting Saturday morning These are my COCORAHS reports Sunday morning 7.20 Monday Morning 5.08 Tuesday morning 1.50 Wednesday morning 2.77. My 4 day total was 16.55" The heaviest 4 day stretch I can recall at my house.
  4. usedtobe

    July Banter Thread

    I haven't been around lately but still love you guys. Wildfire Today has a cool video of a fire tornado transitioning to a waterspout. Jebman, sorry about your dad. http://wildfiretoday.com/2018/07/16/fire-whirl-or-waterspout-or-fire-tornado/
  5. usedtobe

    March 20/21 STORM Obs/Discussion- No Banter

    My next door neighbor measure just over 7"
  6. usedtobe

    March Banter

    Gosh, I feel like complaining. I hate the time change. Waiting and extra hour for the models to runn is a wasted hour....especially if I want to go fishing. I'm not rooting for the March 22 storm.
  7. usedtobe

    March 11-12 Potential Storm

    The 12 Ukie is horrible. What a shift from 24 hours ago. Looks like it wouldn't give us any precip.
  8. usedtobe

    March 11-12 Potential Storm

    we just need the low over the upper low not to stall and actually shift a couple of degrees latitude closer to Nova Scotia. It's the reason why out storm moves east too much before turning. As you say, we don't need a huge change but we do need that feature to get a little out of the way.
  9. usedtobe

    March 11-12 Potential Storm

    I worry that the vortex now over the northeast may be just a little too far west to allow our shortwave room to come north and its proximity is what ends up shearing our trough a little too much to get the bext precip to us.
  10. usedtobe

    March 11-12 Potential Storm

    Randy, is this feeling like the MLK storm of yesteryear?
  11. usedtobe

    PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Grass, mulch and car top has caved. Deck starting to go and I'm seeing a little snow starting to stick to the edge of the driveway. 34 degrees with moderate snow, solid moderate.
  12. usedtobe

    PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    I like it. I don't see DC getting any accumulations except maybe a dusting on mulch. Not sure 35 degrees and 0.40 or so precip will do much.
  13. usedtobe

    PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    That was a much different storm. It had a really strong southern system and had a 50 50 low to help lock in the cold air. There never really were any question concerning ptype for DC.
  14. usedtobe

    PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    That's why I think our CWG forecasts are more likely to bust low than high as I don't trust the NAm amounts and because of that don't trust the temps. hope I'm wrong.
  15. usedtobe

    PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Thanks, I've never liked the snow products that much as too many people seem to get stoked on the amounts where the real way of figuring snowfall accumulations is to look at sounding as also at the ground and near surface temps. In this case none of them argue for high ratios and there are big questions about how quickly the temps aloft will warm up.
  16. usedtobe

    PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    I'm not sure some of the snow maps use algorithms that look at the full depth fo the soundings. The WxBell ones are usualy way overdone in my region unless I've got an arctic airmass in place. This is a case where the accumulated snow depth shoulld be way better than the WxBell produce though it could fail in an S+ band with temps at the surface a tad above freezing.
  17. usedtobe

    Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    It would be odd but I can remember a forecast I made in Missouri where the heavy precipitation kept a pocket of really heavy snow where it should have been warmer than where it was raining but where it was raining but that one pocket ofS+ was the heaviest precip around so it can happen. I sure wouldn't bet on it and right now would go towards climo along with the worry that the temps may never quite lower as much as forecast by the models.
  18. usedtobe

    Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    It all depends on where the thump ends up which will probably continue to jump a bit from run to run. I also think the NAM may be too wet which could keep the temp profile a tad too cold.
  19. usedtobe

    Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    Here's a forecast nightmare. Both the 12- and 3KM NAM precipitation algorithms have my house in snow through 21Z (6PM) and then have a changeover at 00Z. Essentially the model has its precipitation thump right over my house and by 00Z has me in almost 0.50" liquid. The temp lowers to 33 during the heavy snow but that is based on the strong vertical motion and precipitation falling. That would bust our forecast low but the two NAMS are colder than the other guidance and the NAM has a high bias for precipitation so its amounts may be overdone. Lighten the amounts and the surface temp and vertical temperature profile might b3 warmer. Below is the sounding at 00Z over my house. Note the temp at 00Z is isothermal (doesn't change with height) through a deep layer and is just above freezing. I'm rooting for it even though it would bust our CWG forecast (sorry Jason) but also don't trust it and am not sure I'd change the forecast at this stage. We still have time to make changes tomorrow since the precipitation won't be coming in until later in the afternoon. As I said earlier, this forecast is a bust waiting to happen and we don't even know which way it might bust. Isuspect that the Euro and GFS will have warmer temps aloft. Oh well, good luck Ian who is doing the forecast tonight.
  20. usedtobe

    Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    Good point, I'd guess the UKMET would spit out sleet during the period with the 850 temp above freezing but it's a close call as we really need to see the wet bulb temp which might be marginally lower especially early in the event.
  21. usedtobe

    Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    That's pretty similar to what I was thinking.
  22. usedtobe

    Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    Ugh, this is a bust waiting to happen. The 3KM NAm keeps the soundings cold enough for snow at DCA according to Tropical Tidbits but so close that lighter precip would give you warmer temps and sleet or rain. 33 and S+ will accumulate as the melting snow on the surface act to cool them just like the melting ice when you churn ice cream. I'd probably play amounts around DC conservatively because of th various ways you could fail but whatever is forecast would be a low confidence one.
  23. usedtobe

    Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    Here's the CWG article Jason and I wrote. We're not very excited by the event but then Jason lives in DC and I live in Calvert County. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/15/wintry-mix-likely-saturday-night-with-best-chance-of-snowfall-north-of-d-c/?utm_term=.1b7e17e99fe7
  24. usedtobe

    Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    Looks like the low goes to WV so it looks warm though without temps you can't be totally sure.
×