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usedtobe

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by usedtobe

  1. usedtobe

    March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

    Here's the sounding from the NAM at DC at 00Z. Is it sleet or rain? it's right at that threshold and the sounding suggests folks just to the north and west will probably be getting sleet courtesy of PivotalWx.
  2. usedtobe

    March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

    The 06Z Euro has the 2m temp at 34 at 00Z at DCA, The 11Z HRRR has it at 39. I've not been a big fan of the HRRR. My question to my friends at EMC, are there any verification of the HRRR 2m temps and is there a high bias? oops I showed teh 23Z but the 00Z has the same temp.
  3. usedtobe

    March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

    Not for you, probably go with 1-3 for you and 2-4 in Winchester. I'm certainly not impressed for DC.
  4. usedtobe

    March 1, 2019 Light Snow Chance

    You need to root for mesoscale banding like the NAM has.
  5. usedtobe

    March 1, 2019 Light Snow Chance

    Just looked at the SREF. I know most here think it useless but you can use it's own wet bias to look at possibilities. Only one member has more than 1" of snow. The mean of all members is less than 0.10" liquid thru 18Z Friday and that includes one that gives almost 0.40".
  6. usedtobe

    March 1, 2019 Light Snow Chance

    If the Euro comes back wet, then I'd buy give it more credence. Without the 0.30" liquid, I doubt the temps would be that cold.
  7. usedtobe

    March 1, 2019 Light Snow Chance

    Good point. I still have a hard time buying it. I could see 0.10" liquid but 0.30" is hard to believe. It could be right, but I'd bet against it.
  8. usedtobe

    March 1, 2019 Light Snow Chance

    Least that explains it.
  9. usedtobe

    March 1, 2019 Light Snow Chance

    Here's a question for you. Why does the NAM have a separate max over our area. It's not related to a jet streak. The low is well to the south as is the precip associated with the low. The vort is a meager looking thing arguing for a flat look. An inquiring mind would like to know.
  10. usedtobe

    2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

    If you want icing, hope the precip stays on the light side, otherwise the freezing on contact will reolease too much latent heat to get you the icing you crave,
  11. usedtobe

    February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE

    Thanks but I like the CWG forecast of 2 to 5 for the city and 3 to 7 or 4 to 7 father out towards the northwest. I don't trust the GFS amounts so lik eyou I'd lean towards the Euro amounts and the NAM timing of the changeover. The bottom axis of really heavy precip will determine our fate.
  12. usedtobe

    February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE

    Me too! I also like the idea of the heavier precip focusing a little to our north because as the low lifts to north west of the mountains temps will warm across Kentucky and western WV setting up a frontal boundary to focus the precipitation. That's what the NAM and Euro seem to be doing. Heck no one likes to look at the SREF. It has a mean of 3 inches over DC because it has members that fringe us to the north but also have a four 5 inch plus members to balance it out. its mean is pretty much in the Euro, NAM camp. The other caveat is for the snow changeover go with the fastest model but at the surface relay on the slowest one to warm the temps.
  13. usedtobe

    February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

    Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat. The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern. Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts.
  14. usedtobe

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    I think I did prior to our one snowstorm. I'm not excited by this messed up system. Where I live, looks like a mostly rain event maybe starting as sleet Sunday night.
  15. usedtobe

    February 1, 2019 Clipper Snow

    Looks like I've been under green echoes for most of the morning in the northern tip pf Calvert. Of course I'm not there so I don't have measurement. Hope one of my neighbors post something on the snow.
  16. usedtobe

    January 2019 Discussion and Obs

    11.1 just a few minutes ago. If it's not going to snow, give me warmth.
  17. Agree, the ridge the Pacific is too far west and then we get a big vortex /;negative anomaly over AK so we might even lose the cold air for a bit down the road. Until then, looks like cold amd dry, or warm and wet when the cutters track to the west. Something does need to change.
  18. usedtobe

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    Glad I'm not at Sterling. I'd hang with the 06Z Euro as it's the NAM but wow. The last two runs have been mega. We've been NAMed.
  19. usedtobe

    January 12-14, 2019 Storm Threat

    Storm Vista has 6 inches over DC on the Euro. I thought this double jet streak structure was neat. The left front juxtaposed with the right rear quadrant is a favorable combo for a moderate snowstorm and for potential banding.
  20. usedtobe

    January 12-14, 2019 Storm Threat

    stormvista has us in 6-8 on its snow product. Wont' get excited until the Euro trends north. The 06Z looked encouraging at its end.
  21. usedtobe

    January 12-14, 2019 Storm Threat

    Plus the GEFS ensemble mean has shifted north and has 0,25" line on the city during on period.
  22. usedtobe

    December 9/10 Storm

    If you need a crummy model to hang your hopes to look at the 12Z RGEM. I don't think it's right but will keep me looking at the GFS and Euro today.
  23. usedtobe

    December 9/10 Storm

    I think it is a tad wetter for us than the 06Z. It's veery close to being really good and I'd take it.
  24. usedtobe

    December 9/10 Storm

    It does looks like we are almost dealing with 3 streams of flow. The two more southerly features that interact and the northern stream flow over the northeast which needs to relax for us to get creamed. For the Canadian to be right we need all three to react the way we want. The more northern of the two southern system to help pick up the system that is now coming into CA and lift it towards us while the northern stream lifts enough to allow the southern system not get completely sheared under it. The GGEM does that and the parallel almost does it which allows it to give us snow. Quite a cut off between the 0.50" liquid line and the nothing. That makes for big forecast problems. I've written a CWG article on the event but from reading all the comment here, everyone seems to understand the uncertainty and how volatile the model changes could be from run to run.
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