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About usedtobe

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    Dunkirk, Maryland

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  1. usedtobe

    February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

    Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat. The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern. Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts.
  2. usedtobe

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    I think I did prior to our one snowstorm. I'm not excited by this messed up system. Where I live, looks like a mostly rain event maybe starting as sleet Sunday night.
  3. usedtobe

    February 1, 2019 Clipper Snow

    Looks like I've been under green echoes for most of the morning in the northern tip pf Calvert. Of course I'm not there so I don't have measurement. Hope one of my neighbors post something on the snow.
  4. usedtobe

    January 2019 Discussion and Obs

    11.1 just a few minutes ago. If it's not going to snow, give me warmth.
  5. Agree, the ridge the Pacific is too far west and then we get a big vortex /;negative anomaly over AK so we might even lose the cold air for a bit down the road. Until then, looks like cold amd dry, or warm and wet when the cutters track to the west. Something does need to change.
  6. usedtobe

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    Glad I'm not at Sterling. I'd hang with the 06Z Euro as it's the NAM but wow. The last two runs have been mega. We've been NAMed.
  7. usedtobe

    January 12-14, 2019 Storm Threat

    Storm Vista has 6 inches over DC on the Euro. I thought this double jet streak structure was neat. The left front juxtaposed with the right rear quadrant is a favorable combo for a moderate snowstorm and for potential banding.
  8. usedtobe

    January 12-14, 2019 Storm Threat

    stormvista has us in 6-8 on its snow product. Wont' get excited until the Euro trends north. The 06Z looked encouraging at its end.
  9. usedtobe

    January 12-14, 2019 Storm Threat

    Plus the GEFS ensemble mean has shifted north and has 0,25" line on the city during on period.
  10. usedtobe

    December 9/10 Storm

    If you need a crummy model to hang your hopes to look at the 12Z RGEM. I don't think it's right but will keep me looking at the GFS and Euro today.
  11. usedtobe

    December 9/10 Storm

    I think it is a tad wetter for us than the 06Z. It's veery close to being really good and I'd take it.
  12. usedtobe

    December 9/10 Storm

    It does looks like we are almost dealing with 3 streams of flow. The two more southerly features that interact and the northern stream flow over the northeast which needs to relax for us to get creamed. For the Canadian to be right we need all three to react the way we want. The more northern of the two southern system to help pick up the system that is now coming into CA and lift it towards us while the northern stream lifts enough to allow the southern system not get completely sheared under it. The GGEM does that and the parallel almost does it which allows it to give us snow. Quite a cut off between the 0.50" liquid line and the nothing. That makes for big forecast problems. I've written a CWG article on the event but from reading all the comment here, everyone seems to understand the uncertainty and how volatile the model changes could be from run to run.
  13. usedtobe

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    I wrote this on my Facebook page this morning. I don't think any of the forecast problems outlined yesterday concerning the potential of a winter storm over the weekend have been resolved. The ensembles are not quite as bullish for snow as yesterday but there are enough members giving us moderate to heavy snow to not yet buy last night's (Monday night/early Tuesday morning) GFS and European runs which keep the bulk of the precip to our south. The parallel 06Z GFS still is a big hit and the Canadian model has the low tracking up the Chesapeake Bay introducing the possibility of rain. Those models and the heavier ensemble members argue to still keep all the options open ranging from the snow staying to our south to a significant (greater than 4" snowstorm) Besides, at these time ranges it's easy for the models to shift 100 miles north between now and Sunday. My thoughts from last night's runs.
  14. usedtobe

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Daryl, How do the FV3 scores compare with the GFS? Right now I use it as another ensemble member.