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About usedtobe

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    Dunkirk, Maryland

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  1. March 20/21 STORM Obs/Discussion- No Banter

    My next door neighbor measure just over 7"
  2. March Banter

    Gosh, I feel like complaining. I hate the time change. Waiting and extra hour for the models to runn is a wasted hour....especially if I want to go fishing. I'm not rooting for the March 22 storm.
  3. March 11-12 Potential Storm

    The 12 Ukie is horrible. What a shift from 24 hours ago. Looks like it wouldn't give us any precip.
  4. March 11-12 Potential Storm

    we just need the low over the upper low not to stall and actually shift a couple of degrees latitude closer to Nova Scotia. It's the reason why out storm moves east too much before turning. As you say, we don't need a huge change but we do need that feature to get a little out of the way.
  5. March 11-12 Potential Storm

    I worry that the vortex now over the northeast may be just a little too far west to allow our shortwave room to come north and its proximity is what ends up shearing our trough a little too much to get the bext precip to us.
  6. March 11-12 Potential Storm

    Randy, is this feeling like the MLK storm of yesteryear?
  7. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Grass, mulch and car top has caved. Deck starting to go and I'm seeing a little snow starting to stick to the edge of the driveway. 34 degrees with moderate snow, solid moderate.
  8. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    I like it. I don't see DC getting any accumulations except maybe a dusting on mulch. Not sure 35 degrees and 0.40 or so precip will do much.
  9. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    That was a much different storm. It had a really strong southern system and had a 50 50 low to help lock in the cold air. There never really were any question concerning ptype for DC.
  10. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    That's why I think our CWG forecasts are more likely to bust low than high as I don't trust the NAm amounts and because of that don't trust the temps. hope I'm wrong.
  11. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Thanks, I've never liked the snow products that much as too many people seem to get stoked on the amounts where the real way of figuring snowfall accumulations is to look at sounding as also at the ground and near surface temps. In this case none of them argue for high ratios and there are big questions about how quickly the temps aloft will warm up.
  12. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    I'm not sure some of the snow maps use algorithms that look at the full depth fo the soundings. The WxBell ones are usualy way overdone in my region unless I've got an arctic airmass in place. This is a case where the accumulated snow depth shoulld be way better than the WxBell produce though it could fail in an S+ band with temps at the surface a tad above freezing.
  13. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    It would be odd but I can remember a forecast I made in Missouri where the heavy precipitation kept a pocket of really heavy snow where it should have been warmer than where it was raining but where it was raining but that one pocket ofS+ was the heaviest precip around so it can happen. I sure wouldn't bet on it and right now would go towards climo along with the worry that the temps may never quite lower as much as forecast by the models.
  14. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    It all depends on where the thump ends up which will probably continue to jump a bit from run to run. I also think the NAM may be too wet which could keep the temp profile a tad too cold.