usedtobe

Meteorologist
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About usedtobe

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    Dunkirk, Maryland

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  1. Yep, 90% of the ensemble members gave us 1.00" liquid as snow 5 days in advance of the the FEB 5, 2010 BLIZZARD. Also, the models keep improving. A 60-84 hour forecast of 0.50" precipitation amounts are now better than 12-36 hour(day 1 forecast) from the 1990s. You're right about chaos, makes forecasting tough but also suggests some patterns are more predictable than others.
  2. A coating on the driveway but barely,
  3. The high res NAM is a bummer for folks around DC. delays the precip long enough that the low levels warm. It's out of its range but that is a scenario that I could see happening as I've seen it happen occasionally in the past.
  4. So did I now everyting is north and west of me.
  5. I thought the Viking's play calling in the 4th quarter was pretty bad. They kept running the runs mostly were going no where. Cousin's success during the year and in throwing the perfect pass at the end of the game illustrates how poor Allen was at evaluating talent. I never understood why they frnachised him twice instead of ponying up at the end of his original contract.
  6. at least they both have a thump, hope that is right
  7. Look at the pivotal weather snow depth product, it usually provides a more realistic forecast with marginal temps.
  8. I think the dewpoints tomorrow at 12Z are forecast to be in the upper teens west of the city and around 20 in the city so the cooling looks real especially if we get close to 09.25 " in 3 hours or so. That's a pretty good thump. Still, I'd only go with a coating to an inch aroudn the city and maybe 1 to 2 out west even though the models are showing the most precip south of us.
  9. AO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfif
  10. And that's the big problem with the pattern, the ridge position and the location of the max positive anomaly within it. It's not favorable for moving the trough in the west. Of course, the ensemble mean still could be wrong way out there in fantasy land but if it is mostly right and we don't get a hit in the cold window earlier in the month, we probably are screwed through mid January.
  11. Looks to me like there is one window around the 7th or 8th with the cold and then troughiness approaching the east coast. I'd call it partially ajar, far from a perfect pattern but one that could give us something with luck despite the ;latest GFS run taking it away. Still it's probably a long shot but at least its a shot. If that window closes, we may have to wait until the second half of January as the Pac ridge is too far west to supply anything but a negative anomaly in the west. The EPS does build the ridge into ak but towards the end of the run starts pulling it back again. That's so far outside of the skillful range who really cares. This pattern suck if you are a winter wx expert that focuses on DC. I looked for the AO/4 inch snowstorm graph hoping I had it on a thumb drive but it's not. I have it on my old PC so I'll look for it down the road. I need to get all my old excell files on the new PC.
  12. Yep a positive AO/NAO and EPO, not a very inviting look for snow around DC.
  13. Plus, the spaghetti plots are all over the place so there is probably no skill at that time range even for the ensemble mean. My guess is there will be more amplitude somewhere but where makes a huge difference and some ensemble members like the operational, others are much different from it.