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About usedtobe

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    Dunkirk, Maryland

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  1. usedtobe

    December 9/10 Storm

    If you need a crummy model to hang your hopes to look at the 12Z RGEM. I don't think it's right but will keep me looking at the GFS and Euro today.
  2. usedtobe

    December 9/10 Storm

    I think it is a tad wetter for us than the 06Z. It's veery close to being really good and I'd take it.
  3. usedtobe

    December 9/10 Storm

    It does looks like we are almost dealing with 3 streams of flow. The two more southerly features that interact and the northern stream flow over the northeast which needs to relax for us to get creamed. For the Canadian to be right we need all three to react the way we want. The more northern of the two southern system to help pick up the system that is now coming into CA and lift it towards us while the northern stream lifts enough to allow the southern system not get completely sheared under it. The GGEM does that and the parallel almost does it which allows it to give us snow. Quite a cut off between the 0.50" liquid line and the nothing. That makes for big forecast problems. I've written a CWG article on the event but from reading all the comment here, everyone seems to understand the uncertainty and how volatile the model changes could be from run to run.
  4. usedtobe

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

  5. usedtobe

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    I wrote this on my Facebook page this morning. I don't think any of the forecast problems outlined yesterday concerning the potential of a winter storm over the weekend have been resolved. The ensembles are not quite as bullish for snow as yesterday but there are enough members giving us moderate to heavy snow to not yet buy last night's (Monday night/early Tuesday morning) GFS and European runs which keep the bulk of the precip to our south. The parallel 06Z GFS still is a big hit and the Canadian model has the low tracking up the Chesapeake Bay introducing the possibility of rain. Those models and the heavier ensemble members argue to still keep all the options open ranging from the snow staying to our south to a significant (greater than 4" snowstorm) Besides, at these time ranges it's easy for the models to shift 100 miles north between now and Sunday. My thoughts from last night's runs.
  6. usedtobe

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Daryl, How do the FV3 scores compare with the GFS? Right now I use it as another ensemble member.
  7. usedtobe

    November 15-16 First Frozen Obs/Nowcast

    got a whopping 0.60" of snow and then the deluge started. Not a good day, our thoughts two days ago were better than those yesterday. Kind of a bust.
  8. usedtobe

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    The Euro seasonal does look really interesting. While I'm not a big proponent of Nino meaning we end up snowy. Such a 500H anomaly pattern would suggest enough cold air for Miller A type storms.
  9. usedtobe

    July Discobs Thread

    Starting Saturday morning These are my COCORAHS reports Sunday morning 7.20 Monday Morning 5.08 Tuesday morning 1.50 Wednesday morning 2.77. My 4 day total was 16.55" The heaviest 4 day stretch I can recall at my house.
  10. usedtobe

    July Banter Thread

    I haven't been around lately but still love you guys. Wildfire Today has a cool video of a fire tornado transitioning to a waterspout. Jebman, sorry about your dad. http://wildfiretoday.com/2018/07/16/fire-whirl-or-waterspout-or-fire-tornado/
  11. usedtobe

    March 20/21 STORM Obs/Discussion- No Banter

    My next door neighbor measure just over 7"
  12. usedtobe

    March Banter

    Gosh, I feel like complaining. I hate the time change. Waiting and extra hour for the models to runn is a wasted hour....especially if I want to go fishing. I'm not rooting for the March 22 storm.
  13. usedtobe

    March 11-12 Potential Storm

    The 12 Ukie is horrible. What a shift from 24 hours ago. Looks like it wouldn't give us any precip.
  14. usedtobe

    March 11-12 Potential Storm

    we just need the low over the upper low not to stall and actually shift a couple of degrees latitude closer to Nova Scotia. It's the reason why out storm moves east too much before turning. As you say, we don't need a huge change but we do need that feature to get a little out of the way.
  15. usedtobe

    March 11-12 Potential Storm

    I worry that the vortex now over the northeast may be just a little too far west to allow our shortwave room to come north and its proximity is what ends up shearing our trough a little too much to get the bext precip to us.