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About usedtobe

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    Dunkirk, Maryland

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  1. I did work there but retired in 2004 though I worked for several years part time as a contractor til around 2009. I know some of the forecasters but no longer know the bosses. I don't even know the office phone number. I'm not sure how hiring works anymore.
  2. .67" in the gauge at 9:30. Last night at around 2:30 or so there was a velocity couplet in Clavert county but i don't see any reports of a possible tornado. I did lose power for about an hour.
  3. Here's the sounding from the NAM at DC at 00Z. Is it sleet or rain? it's right at that threshold and the sounding suggests folks just to the north and west will probably be getting sleet courtesy of PivotalWx.
  4. The 06Z Euro has the 2m temp at 34 at 00Z at DCA, The 11Z HRRR has it at 39. I've not been a big fan of the HRRR. My question to my friends at EMC, are there any verification of the HRRR 2m temps and is there a high bias? oops I showed teh 23Z but the 00Z has the same temp.
  5. Not for you, probably go with 1-3 for you and 2-4 in Winchester. I'm certainly not impressed for DC.
  6. You need to root for mesoscale banding like the NAM has.
  7. Just looked at the SREF. I know most here think it useless but you can use it's own wet bias to look at possibilities. Only one member has more than 1" of snow. The mean of all members is less than 0.10" liquid thru 18Z Friday and that includes one that gives almost 0.40".
  8. If the Euro comes back wet, then I'd buy give it more credence. Without the 0.30" liquid, I doubt the temps would be that cold.
  9. Good point. I still have a hard time buying it. I could see 0.10" liquid but 0.30" is hard to believe. It could be right, but I'd bet against it.
  10. Here's a question for you. Why does the NAM have a separate max over our area. It's not related to a jet streak. The low is well to the south as is the precip associated with the low. The vort is a meager looking thing arguing for a flat look. An inquiring mind would like to know.
  11. If you want icing, hope the precip stays on the light side, otherwise the freezing on contact will reolease too much latent heat to get you the icing you crave,
  12. Thanks but I like the CWG forecast of 2 to 5 for the city and 3 to 7 or 4 to 7 father out towards the northwest. I don't trust the GFS amounts so lik eyou I'd lean towards the Euro amounts and the NAM timing of the changeover. The bottom axis of really heavy precip will determine our fate.
  13. Me too! I also like the idea of the heavier precip focusing a little to our north because as the low lifts to north west of the mountains temps will warm across Kentucky and western WV setting up a frontal boundary to focus the precipitation. That's what the NAM and Euro seem to be doing. Heck no one likes to look at the SREF. It has a mean of 3 inches over DC because it has members that fringe us to the north but also have a four 5 inch plus members to balance it out. its mean is pretty much in the Euro, NAM camp. The other caveat is for the snow changeover go with the fastest model but at the surface relay on the slowest one to warm the temps.
  14. Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat. The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern. Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts.