Brian5671 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 from the NYC thread but we're actually warmer than 01-02 and 11-12 right now. Only difference is a HECS for the mid Atlantic. And what happened to all the storminess ? I figured with the nino we'd see stretches of unsettled weather...instead it's mainly tranquil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 from the NYC thread but we're actually warmer than 01-02 and 11-12 right now. Only difference is a HECS for the mid Atlantic. And what happened to all the storminess ? I figured with the nino we'd see stretches of unsettled weather...instead it's mainly tranquil. Has been yea but looks active coming up. Just hope it doesn't crap the bed and miss from all angles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Don't know if it was mentioned or not, But there was a minor earthquake 6 miles NE of Eastport around 7 am this morning, 3.3 on the richter scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I find it interesting how winter of late has assumed such a highly polarized character. Gone are the old nickel and dime seasons replete with clippers and the like, replaced by either long periods of futility or short bursts of hyper-activity. Let's reflect that the prospect of seasonal futility has come up for discussion in no less than four of the last six seasons, '12, '13, '15, and presently. Conversely, we've had historic storms in four of the last five years, Jan '11, Oct '11, Feb '13, Mar '13, Jan '15, along with more blizzard warnings than I care to remember, and a few of the snowiest months on record. I have no idea if one can correlate this to larger scale climate influences--probably tenuously at best--or simply to the vicissitudes of chaotic constructive/destructive wave interference, but it certainly is enough to raise the eyebrows and make one cudgel the old noodle in search of answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I find it interesting how winter of late has assumed such a highly polarized character. Gone are the old nickel and dime seasons replete with clippers and the like, replaced by either long periods of futility or short bursts of hyper-activity. Let's reflect that the prospect of seasonal futility has come up for discussion in no less than four of the last six seasons, '12, '13, '15, and presently. Conversely, we've had historic storms in four of the last five years, Jan '11, Oct '11, Feb '13, Mar '13, Jan '15, along with more blizzard warnings than I care to remember, and a few of the snowiest months on record. I have no idea if one can correlate this to larger scale climate influences--probably tenuously at best--or simply to the vicissitudes of chaotic constructive/destructive wave interference, but it certainly is enough to raise the eyebrows and make one cudgel the old noodle in search of answers. Maybe for your area. Last winter was basically the definition of nickel and dime up here. In fact, it has been like pulling teeth getting anything that big for the last several years up here. PF was talking out it recently. Eastern NY and WNE have not been part of the regular crushings received by many in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Boy RGEM goes crazy over my kids head in Omaha. Looks like OMA is tickling the dry slot for this event, but airport still reporting SINCR 1/4 last ob. Just north of there, towards LNK must be getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Maybe for your area. Last winter was basically the definition of nickel and dime up here. In fact, it has been like pulling teeth getting anything that big for the last several years up here. PF was talking out it recently. Eastern NY and WNE have not been part of the regular crushings received by many in this forum. Yes, of course my observation reflected my parochial perspective in SNE. I just find the way things have broken here interesting, as you probably find the lack of big events in your area interesting (if also immensely frustrating). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Maybe for your area. Last winter was basically the definition of nickel and dime up here. In fact, it has been like pulling teeth getting anything that big for the last several years up here. PF was talking out it recently. Eastern NY and WNE have not been part of the regular crushings received by many in this forum. Yep, it's been a regional phenomenon...nickels and dimes have ruled the roost in the NNE to NY State corridor. I'm sure the worm will turn at some point and everyone will start saying how we used to get big storms and now we don't while the folks in ALB up to SLK and back over to BTV start crowing about the plethora of big events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Some early melts by folks last night. I appoint ice to melt for all of us when the time is right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Yep, it's been a regional phenomenon...nickels and dimes have ruled the roost in the NNE to NY State corridor. I'm sure the worm will turn at some point and everyone will start saying how we used to get big storms and now we don't while the folks in ALB up to SLK and back over to BTV start crowing about the plethora of big events. I agree with you that at some point here we will get a couple winters filled with them, but it is amazing how surgically precise the past few years have been in that department. It's like Mother Nature knows where the CT River Valley is and tries as hard as possible to avoid snows west of there in synoptic events . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Agree ice has the best dead ratter melts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I agree with you that at some point here we will get a couple winters filled with them, but it is amazing how surgically precise the past few years have been in that department. It's like Mother Nature knows where the CT River Valley is and tries as hard as possible to avoid snows west of there in synoptic events . It was like that for the coastal plain of SNE in the 1980s/early 1990s. BOS went 10 years without a 12" event...think about that one for a second. You'd probably have a hard time wrapping your head around that considering they are a dime a dozen these days. (this winter not withstanding) But every event found a way to screw them...sometimes the Cape got 20" (like in the '87 storms) or the interior near ORH got blasted (Mar '84, Jan '87, Apr '87, etc) but that from E MA near BOS SW to RI was spared with surgical precision as you would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I agree with you that at some point here we will get a couple winters filled with them, but it is amazing how surgically precise the past few years have been in that department. It's like Mother Nature knows where the CT River Valley is and tries as hard as possible to avoid snows west of there in synoptic events . Nailed it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I agree with you that at some point here we will get a couple winters filled with them, but it is amazing how surgically precise the past few years have been in that department. It's like Mother Nature knows where the CT River Valley is and tries as hard as possible to avoid snows west of there in synoptic events .Wonder if it's the big pond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 people who try to forecast the nao more than two weeks in advance need to give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 meh, it is just as likely that nothing happens over the next 10 days ... as it may be so that any one of these thus far phantoms actually materializes. just keep that in mind. ...not that anyone isn't, just sayin'... the tenor of the season has been deconstructive interference between the n and s streams. whenever they get anywhere around one another it's been a dysfunctional squabble enough to make jerry springer envious... this thing in the late mid/early extended range is fitting right in with that ... the gfs and its ensemble member continue to spray solutions all over the place re the timing and geography of that like an unmanned fire hose, because it all comes down to subtleties in wave spacing/forcing between it and the vastly superior planetary wave structure amplifying into the upper mw/eventually ov coming/bulling right in on the back side. other patterns and years ...that lead system might actually phase but not in this decon swarm of find other hobbies of a winter - good luck. doesn't mean we can't get clocked by it...just that the out to sea, west of alb...rinse repeat is actually a persistent behavior in its self. whatever happens ... and barring an ssw, the distant ensemble tendency emerging for falling pna while the nao remains statically above neutral sd may mean early warmth - but it's early in the signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looks like OMA is tickling the dry slot for this event, but airport still reporting SINCR 1/4 last ob. Just north of there, towards LNK must be getting crushed. Just north west is best Raging I-80 in both directions: Route impassable. Between Exit 257: US 183; Holdrege;Elm Creek (16 miles west of Kearney) and Exit 318: NE 2; Grand Island (14 miles west of Aurora). The route is impassable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just north west is best Raging vid-003129001-00-01.jpg I-80 in both directions: Route impassable. Between Exit 257: US 183; Holdrege;Elm Creek (16 miles west of Kearney) and Exit 318: NE 2; Grand Island (14 miles west of Aurora). The route is impassable. I-80 was always shut down, even for some light accumulation Alberta Clippers. But I've seen what those big rigs can do to a deer, so I wouldn't want them flying blind through a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I-80 was always shut down, even for some light accumulation Alberta Clippers. But I've seen what those big rigs can do to a deer, so I wouldn't want them flying blind through a blizzard.12-15 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 12-15 so far Dry slot has practically blown up to the Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Think about this...in like 3 months we could realistically be tracking severe wx. crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I went back over the obs thread for the 2/2/15 storm last year. What an awesome event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Think about this...in like 3 months we could realistically be tracking severe wx. crazy What I find amazing is that it seems to happen in this progression year after year. What are the odds of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I went back over the obs thread for the 2/2/15 storm last year. What an awesome event. Total overachiever...went from a robust SWFE to a pseudo Miller B as we got snow all afternoon from that redeveloping wave. I remember the RGEM/GGEM nailed that event well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Total overachiever...went from a robust SWFE to a pseudo Miller B as we got snow all afternoon from that redeveloping wave. I remember the RGEM/GGEM nailed that event well. GGEM hinted at that CCB like feature. That was the reason we got 12-18. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Even BDR got 10 inches from that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It was like that for the coastal plain of SNE in the 1980s/early 1990s. BOS went 10 years without a 12" event...think about that one for a second. You'd probably have a hard time wrapping your head around that considering they are a dime a dozen these days. (this winter not withstanding) But every event found a way to screw them...sometimes the Cape got 20" (like in the '87 storms) or the interior near ORH got blasted (Mar '84, Jan '87, Apr '87, etc) but that from E MA near BOS SW to RI was spared with surgical precision as you would say. That bolded right there is pretty unbelievable right now, haha. You are right, tough to wrap your head around BOS going 10 years without a 12" event given the current climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Wonder if it's the big pond Well yeah, but that pond has been there for a long time and if you look at the 48 cases Bosart, et al studied for cold season CSI banding, you don't see them all sitting right on the coast. Sooner or later those interior bombs will come back. And I'm not even talking about up here...growing up my opinion of nor'easters in the ALB area was pretty much what you'd think based on this map. I always used to think in high school that ALB was in a prime nor'easter spot as that's where the deform bands always looked to set-up. Judging by this graphic, there was reason for me to think that. The BGM-ALB corridor seemed to be a hot spot to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 What I find amazing is that it seems to happen in this progression year after year. What are the odds of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 What I find amazing is that it seems to happen in this progression year after year. What are the odds of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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