Hoth Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Forecasting is another matter...you don't need much science prowess to succeed in that arena.....but I do understand why they require that people put in the time to and effort into learning how the physics of the atmosphere play out. It can't hurt to know the intricacies of how all of these atmospheric phenomena manifest themselves, but one can certainly supplement a thorough understanding of climatology, along with a knowledge of the biases/strengths amongst the pantheon of guidance. That is how I have any clue what so ever......a life time of observation and good communications skills help, too. Indeed. Experience is the best teacher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yeah. It was nuts. I think I pulled 18" in that if memory serves. Was amazing to watch Weymouth take it on the chin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 perhaps you can get those roommates to decipher the new German model description. I got the mountain torque stuff but some of this is a little gibberish like Abstract This article describes the non-hydrostatic dynamical core developed for the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) modelling framework. ICON is a joint project of the German Weather Service (DWD) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), targeting a unified modelling system for global numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate modelling. Compared with the existing models at both institutions, the main achievements of ICON are exact local mass conservation, mass-consistent tracer transport, a flexible grid nesting capability and the use of non-hydrostatic equations on global domains. The dynamical core is formulated on an icosahedral-triangular Arakawa C grid. Achieving mass conservation is facilitated by a flux-form continuity equation with density as the prognostic variable. Time integration is performed with a two-time-level predictor–corrector scheme that is fully explicit, except for the terms describing vertical sound-wave propagation. To achieve competitive computational efficiency, time splitting is applied between the dynamical core on the one hand and tracer advection, physics parametrizations and horizontal diffusion on the other hand. A sequence of tests with varying complexity indicates that the ICON dynamical core combines high numerical stability over steep mountain slopes with good accuracy and reasonably low diffusivity. Preliminary NWP test suites initialized with interpolated analysis data reveal that the ICON modelling system already achieves better skill scores than its predecessor at DWD, the operational hydrostatic Global Model Europe (GME), and at the same time requires significantly fewer computational resources. Yeah, my eyes just sort of glazed over about halfway through that haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yeah. It was nuts. I had 14", I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yeah, my eyes just sort of glazed over about halfway through that haha.lol I have to read Engineering proposals and get the same glazed over look. KISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 lol I have to read Engineering proposals and get the same glazed over look. KISS Amen to that. Coincidentally, the KISS acronym was coined by Kelly Johnson, who is my roommate's hero. Skunk Works did some amazing stuff, but I digress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Rockport gust to 61 Blue Hill 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I had 14", I think. I wasn't home so it was tough to decipher, but pretty sure I could have went over 30" if I measured every 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Amen to that. Coincidentally, the KISS acronym was coined by Kelly Johnson, who is my roommate's hero. Skunk Works did some amazing stuff, but I digress...I heard keep it simple stupid when I was an apprentice in 79,who is Kelly Johnson,forget that I remembered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 My cognitive dichotomy is immense....I mean, we're talking legit, learning disability like struggles in relation to the problem solving arena, superimposed over an exceptional ability to communicate/articulate, synthesize and integrate information. That's what makes there world/this forum tick....everyone has a toolset. Then there are genetic freaks like Will, who do anything and everything better than you can. My toolset consists of sarcasm and bitterness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 With this many pieces on the chess board I would wait for actual sampling and get the data into the models instead of using hypothetical data. One shortwave being stronger or weaker could make a huge difference with this setup. I would be happy with a coating or inch since we are going to miss another opportunity. Stay safe. For realz? A coating? An inch? Really? Turn the calander to May bro.....ok sorry guys.....I know it's the model mezzanine.....I'm done now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 lol...33.8F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Look at the Canadian... It's a lousy model, but it pretty much sums up this season!! Like Will phrased it-with surgical precision it manages to miss us completely lmao!! Melt away-get it out!! This will end up falling apart before to much longer. And We will miss the lil event Friday too btw! Does it embrace the suk as they say? Embrace it fellas.......it rained today folks.....on February 3.....FUKIN FEB 3.....2/3.....that's 2/3......I swear I'm living back home in the SF Bay Area..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Anyone want to tell me to be patient grasshopper? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 That's wut I thought........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Does it embrace the suk as they say? Embrace it fellas.......it rained today folks.....on February 3.....FUKIN FEB 3.....2/3.....that's 2/3......I swear I'm living back home in the SF Bay Area..... Why are you drinking on a Wednesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Why are you drinking on a Wednesday night Totally sober........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm embracing it bro!! Really didn't bother me it rained today at all. It's just amazing to me how so much potential can just not happen...every time this year. It is quite impressive how it just won't snow for most areas this winter. I hope those in southeast areas enjoy this one Friday...most in CT AND Massachusetts will miss out. We're chasing ghosts this year in SNE and NNE so far. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Lolz.....I got deleted in Model Mezz.....sorry.....JC was right.....I had some drinks......winter needs to make a stand here.....come on Winter!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm embracing it bro!! Really didn't bother me it rained today at all. It's just amazing to me how so much potential can just not happen...every time this year. It is quite impressive how it just won't snow for most areas this winter. I hope those in southeast areas enjoy this one Friday...most in CT AND Massachusetts will miss out. We're chasing ghosts this year in SNE and NNE so far. Not good. Winter crying for its momma.......wut a little b I t c h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Lolz.....I got deleted in Model Mezz.....sorry.....JC was right.....I had some drinks......winter needs to make a stand here.....come on Winter!!!!Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 +30 on the low this morning. Warm out there with drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This year compared with last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 735 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW 24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE ...VERMONT... MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.51 38 14 38 0.0 21 Congrats NNE mountains... yesterday's 21" snow depth was the lowest in at least half a century (since 1954) for February 3rd at MMNV1, beating out the 22" in 1982. We are full on ratter at this point...not a melt down, just pure amazement that yes, it can be this bad. Hopefully banking some karma for future years, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Rockport gust to 61 Blue Hill 50 Poorly modeled. I'm going back over the data now, and the HRRR had it, but that's it. We hit hurricane force on the buoys last evening. It was definitely something more than mechanical mixing. Possibly a localized jetlet, coupled with the warm front sneaking just far enough north into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Poorly modeled. I'm going back over the data now, and the HRRR had it, but that's it. We hit hurricane force on the buoys last evening. It was definitely something more than mechanical mixing. Possibly a localized jetlet, coupled with the warm front sneaking just far enough north into our area. We really busted on yesterday evening's wind forecast even back here. Part of it was being too focused on tonight's snow but we mixed way more than I expected on the back edge of that precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Poorly modeled. I'm going back over the data now, and the HRRR had it, but that's it. We hit hurricane force on the buoys last evening. It was definitely something more than mechanical mixing. Possibly a localized jetlet, coupled with the warm front sneaking just far enough north into our area. I thought HRRR had it, right before I left work I could see it on HRRR and then drove right into it. Got crushed with Tstorm force winds and torrential rain, 1.63 rain and probably 1.1 of that in quick order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 735 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW 24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE ...VERMONT... MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.51 38 14 38 0.0 21 Congrats NNE mountains... yesterday's 21" snow depth was the lowest in at least half a century (since 1954) for February 3rd at MMNV1, beating out the 22" in 1982. We are full on ratter at this point...not a melt down, just pure amazement that yes, it can be this bad. Hopefully banking some karma for future years, ha. Maybe James can finish the season with 2x Montpelier's totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 was it a stinger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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