CapturedNature Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I'm glad we're getting some rain tomorrow http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/01/hampden_brush_fire_extinguishe.html I'm surprised that I didn't see that on the drought watch....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It's amazing how rotted out the airmasses are right now...esp without good snow cover to our north and west, nevrmind in our BYs. -5C at 850 and temps are 50F at HFD and PVD...in other winters, that might produce a high in the 30s to near 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 For the snowmobilers out there.... a fellow Stowe local is out in Colorado right now and this photo is from Rabbit Ears Pass which is right near Steamboat Springs. Too deep to snowmobile. Steamboat ski resort has had over 250" of snow halfway through the winter and its said that Rabbit Ears gets more snow than the ski area. Rabbit Ears and Buffalo Pass are said to get 400-500" per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I dont know if central ct had a foot plus event during the winter of 83-84 but from the winter of 84-85 through the winter of 91-92 there were no foot plus events. In feb of 88 in Bristol we had a ten inch event with much less just to the south and east and up to 15 inches in the nw hills and one clipper in feb of 90 produced a stripe of 8-12 inch totals in central ct but less to the north south east and west only a few places in central ct touched the foot mark so it was not really area wide. So that is eight or perhaps nine years without a foot plus storm area wide...I remember getting a 7 inch snow storm in jan of 87 and thinking it was a really big deal and those two sizeable snow storms mentioned above being something special. When the 93 storm hit I thought I had died and gone to heaven with 15-16 inches Too bad I moved out of Bristol in 04 bc they have had an epic stretch since then and this incredibly snowy period I have spent in western mass which has had some good events but much much less overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Snowbird just about at 300" on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 For the snowmobilers out there.... a fellow Stowe local is out in Colorado right now and this photo is from Rabbit Ears Pass which is right near Steamboat Springs. Too deep to snowmobile. Steamboat ski resort has had over 250" of snow halfway through the winter and its said that Rabbit Ears gets more snow than the ski area. Rabbit Ears and Buffalo Pass are said to get 400-500" per year. 12631451_10156576621110193_5190440737531805693_n.jpg Holy heck, that's unreal. My cousin moved to Denver this year and insists on torturing me with frequent pics of Beaver Creek, Vail, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Holy heck, that's unreal. My cousin moved to Denver this year and insists on torturing me with frequent pics of Beaver Creek, Vail, etc. In the comments she said how unnerving it can be when you can't feel the ground. You stand up and can't make any fast movements or else you sink farther into the snowpack. It's like quicksand. And they don't have nice ice crusts and thaw layers to support you walking around in it. It's just like 7 feet of snow on top of snow on top of snow.... you can actually drown in a field if you don't think about your movements and somehow get upside down or are swimming in it to the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Well yeah, but that pond has been there for a long time and if you look at the 48 cases Bosart, et al studied for cold season CSI banding, you don't see them all sitting right on the coast. You missed my point, perhaps the base state has changed. I really don't know but something has changed , not sure could be decadal, maybe to do with the pond, maybe not, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 You missed my point, perhaps the base state has changed. I really don't know but something has changed , not sure could be decadal, maybe to do with the pond, maybe not, Well its always changing...but it will probably go back to favoring PF's area down to BGM/ALB/SLK/RUT eventually...there were some dire years in the early/mid 1960s up north and interior too while the I-95 corridor was doing naked snow angels in KUs. Then it shifted and the late 60s and early 70s were prolific for them (at times down here too)...and it stayed that way for a while...then we all suffered to some extent in the 1980s (except way out toward BGM/central PA which did not) before rebounding in the 1990s. It's hard to really make sense of a 5 year trend of screwing NNE out of big events. It's interesting to follow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Well its always changing...but it will probably go back to favoring PF's area down to BGM/ALB/SLK/RUT eventually...there were some dire years in the early/mid 1960s up north and interior too while the I-95 corridor was doing naked snow angels in KUs. Then it shifted and the late 60s and early 70s were prolific for them (at times down here too)...and it stayed that way for a while...then we all suffered to some extent in the 1980s (except way out toward BGM/central PA which did not) before rebounding in the 1990s. It's hard to really make sense of a 5 year trend of screwing NNE out of big events. It's interesting to follow though. How would the NAO play into this? The past few years have been more PNA and EPO driven. There's something stopping storms from turning the corner and heading up the coast not out to sea once hitting a certain latitude. I wonder if a -NAO would block them even further south, or would it have trapped them to some extent and forced them to be slow moving huggers that almost retrograde west up in northern Maine when they run into the block. The NAO may be a missing piece of the puzzle to some extent...like a lot of our cutters through say NY State or the Great Lakes, with a -NAO those might have been big interior snowstorms as they get forced just far enough east by a block. For some reason I feel like its not that the storms that would hit us are all going out to sea, its that we've had a ton of cutters in the past few years that may have been the storms the interior are missing. All those storms that in recent years get into the Ohio Valley and continue trucking due NE as a New England cutter, with a -NAO I wonder if those would've been more profitable up here. Or at least a -NAO would've allowed for more front-end fun on the cutters...as that's in in our climo too, and we used to get a lot more like 3-6" events followed by rain (like half inch of QPF falls in the cold before going over to mix/rain) where as now its like they just start as IP/ZR briefly and then go straight pouring rain. I wonder if a -NAO would've allowed more like 3-6" events on the cutters. There's also been a lack of true upslope events and maybe that's also tied to the NAO not allowing storms to become trapped and blocked up in the Maritime region or northern Maine. Those lows that curl up into that region and actually then retrograde back west are our best upslope events and we haven't seen a system do that in a long time...as once they get up north they actually seem to be accelerating instead of slowly down. I agree something is in play like Ginxy said, some base state has been similar the past few years, but I'm not worried about it being a permanent long range change as frustrating as it can be in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Some early melts by folks last night. I appoint ice to melt for all of us when the time is right.. Agree ice has the best dead ratter melts No problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It's hard to really make sense of a 5 year trend of screwing NNE out of big events. It's interesting to follow though. Lol especially from down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Tomorrow is a great example where we could use some blocking, like I mentioned in my previous post. There's been so much snow this season north of Montreal, that if someone was different by about 150 miles we'd be swimming in snow to date. Every single one of these cutters and northern stream events have been putting down significant snow north of the Saint Lawrence River in Quebec. Blocking forces this a little further south, with a redeveloping triple point, and NNE and CNE gets a solid 4-8" overrunning event that may end as some mixed precip. If we could've done this with even half the cutters we've had since 2013, we'd be doing a heck of a lot better up here lately. What Will has said about no blocking in the NAO region causing a fire hose spraying systems from the south seems spot on. The -NAO would've helped force most of these to at least redevelop near the coast. Then, all these cutters would become good events for the deeper interior and north, with mixed events in SNE. Just think about all the times we see snowfall being progged north of Montreal...if something had brought that zone south 150 miles or something, it would've been a much different winter up to this point in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Lol especially from down here Pretty much waiting for a La Nina at this point...bring on the SWFE parade. NNE does that type of winter well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looks like OMA is tickling the dry slot for this event, but airport still reporting SINCR 1/4 last ob. Just north of there, towards LNK must be getting crushed. http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KJYR.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I agree with you that at some point here we will get a couple winters filled with them, but it is amazing how surgically precise the past few years have been in that department. It's like Mother Nature knows where the CT River Valley is and tries as hard as possible to avoid snows west of there in synoptic events . Nailed it! Exhibit A. Surgical Precision to use the CT Valley as the dividing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 just because the universal energy likes to f*ck with me, and laugh in my face...my parents are making the big move from the home in Medway they have owned for 42 years to an adult community in Plymouth...tentatively the move is coming up on the 24th...so if there were ever to be a big snowstorm, it would be around that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Yeah powderfreak, the lack of blocking is probably hurting your area more than here ironically. This is an example of where NNE likes a -NAO. Obviously you don't like it in all patterns but this one you certainly would. And of course the magnitude matters. You have probably gotten screwed out of like 3 warning events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Yeah powderfreak, the lack of blocking is probably hurting your area more than here ironically. This is an example of where NNE likes a -NAO. Obviously you don't like it in all patterns but this one you certainly would. And of course the magnitude matters. You have probably gotten screwed out of like 3 warning events. Glad you agree...wasn't sure if that analysis was way off or not. It was sort of an epiphany for me today... I keep thinking our problem is the coastal storms tracking too far east (which is still some of it) but what I think now is the real issue is the cutters. Especially this season, and also in 2013-2014. I know I've been afraid of a -NAO in the past, and bounce around in my opinions like a kid inside a bouncy castle at a county fair, but I do think that's the real issue. That's the index that has changed in the past few seasons. We went through a big -NAO period in the means during the 2000-2011 decade, no? The cutters have been tracking such this year that I really think a -NAO block would've had a big difference up here. Those could have very easily transformed into triple point redevelopers where Blizz is telling folks the Pike doesn't sniff 32F. As it is, they've been getting into the Ohio Valley or lower midwest, and with absolutely no resistance to the NE, they just keep trucking into southern Ontario/Quebec before heading east. The big snows with those cutters have been like 150 miles north, to the north of Montreal. With a -NAO, those get squeezed out below us and we are left with heavy front end dumps going to mixed precip, instead of quick mixed 0-2" of snow/sleet to rain. The -NAO in a pattern like this year may have also blocked those systems in the Maritime region or southern Quebec, and also provided nice upslope responses as the lows travel north to a point and then stall and occlude out. Its an interesting thing to think about...when a -NAO would've benefited NNE more than SNE. Or would a -NAO have created some even more ridiculous winters for SNE if they got front end snows on the cutters and then also the coastal systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Yes that is right PF. We did bias the NAO pretty negative between 2000-2013. Then starting in 2013-2014 winter (the shift really happened in late spring of 2013 IMHO) we saw a different regime take hold. Who knows of its just a fleeting run of 3 or 4 years or if this will dominate for most of the next decade. If you look at your great winters, several of them were big -NAO years. Not all of course but several. Years like '70-'71, '00-'01, '69-'70 to name a few. Not saying this one would have been great with a -NAO but you would have a heck of a lot more snow for sure. This event is a poster child example. You probably get like 10" of dense snow followed by a bit of IP before flipping back to fluff on te upslope as the sfc gets squeezed over LI or something and the ML center goes over ALB to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 crazy storms down south. Only in due time for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 A way I would view the -NAO in powderfreak land is "protecter of snow". While it may turn on you once in a while keeping things suppressed, it truly does stop the rain up there. Really tough to rain and it can turn some storms that might have been rain into big snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Blocking up front is my key to success. You can have the best QB and RB in the game but if you can't keep your QB upright or open holes for your RB....only so much they can do alone. Of course if you have the best O line with Geno Smith as your QB, not much success there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Anyone know anything about the DWD-ICON model? It just popped up on Meteocentre and from my quick googling it seems to be a German project that's trying to create "a new generation of general circulation models for the atmosphere and the ocean in a unified framework." Model: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=dwd_icon&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Their website: https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/dcmip-2012/icon-mpi-dwd Hopefully their tech is good because it has warning level snowfall here on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Headed up to Boston this weekend with my son to see a Bruins/Sabres game. Staying by the Battery Wharf, any recommendations on either a good pizza place in the vicinity or a place to grab a burger/beer? Was hoping our trip would coincide with a storm, but no such luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Headed up to Boston this weekend with my son to see a Bruins/Sabres game. Staying by the Battery Wharf, any recommendations on either a good pizza place in the vicinity or a place to grab a burger/beer? Was hoping our trip would coincide with a storm, but no such luck! Pizzeria Regina. Hands down. Probably the most authentic pizza around. It's always crowded though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 If you want a decent place for pub food, The Fours on Canal St, across from the Garden is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Pizzeria Regina. Hands down. Probably the most authentic pizza around. It's always crowded though. If you want a decent place for pub food, The Fours on Canal St, across from the Garden is pretty good. Thanks Scott! I was reading about Pizzeria Regina, but it's nice to get a local endorsement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I've really enjoyed today's discussion about NNE/WNE drought of significant storms. Ironically some of today's models have shown how the CT River could once again be a dividing line of haves and have nots next week. Do we continue a trend...? lol Exhibit A. Surgical Precision to use the CT Valley as the dividing line. GFS.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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