October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

12z HRRR would be wild  

Going to be tough to nail this down

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

12z HRRR would be wild  

Please Explain Don. 

[Brian5671]

NAMS barely rain through Sat nite here

[dendrite]

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Please Explain Don. 

 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Thanks. Not saying it’s right obviously but that would be nasty across much of the area.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, the NAM's pretty much going 90th percentile full profile conversion straight to a tropical entity with that solution

As such, it's contracting 

[Brian5671]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Thanks. Not saying it’s right obviously but that would be nasty across much of the area.

Brutal for LI/CT shoreline and NJ

[Typhoon Tip]

Broadly conceptualizing ...

Baroclinic systems expand there influence due to frontal synoptic forcing... and temperature gradient related mechanics.  

Barotropic tropical systems are by physics drawn to core

... this thing's going for Category 3 intensity with that NAM look there - probably a erroneous solution. 

[Typhoon Tip]

48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, for those following--this was never going to be purely tropical. We're talking about possibly a shallow warm core system. To be tropical it would need to shed the fronts it's attached to. But the title is what it is for a reason. We're talking hybrid here or maybe subtropical if things break right. Convection near the center, banding features, etc..

All that is still on the table once this really ramps up later today and tonight. As it stands however, we're all systems go. Good pressure falls are underway and our storm is organizing right where we want it. 

 

Big rainfall is still on the table along with significant winds especially along the coast. Euro is still most robust between it and the GFS on 925mb winds. Close call for mixing on the soundings. 

There's irony this hour ... because while I essentially agree that this was never tropical this, that, nor the other d-drip worthy ...the NAM is actually attempting to perform one of the most rapid conversions to purer tropical core and even RI cycling than has ever been observed or even thought plausible in the Terran physical manifold.  LOL

[OrangeCTWX]

Did the NAMS initialize way too strong or am I making things up? I doubt this is currently a 988mb storm.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, the NAM's pretty much going 90th percentile full profile conversion straight to a tropical entity with that solution

As such, it's contracting 

3k has 3” PWATS and saturated 0C at 500mb near the center. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Did the NAMS initialize way too strong or am I making things up? I doubt this is currently a 988mb storm.

995mb at 12z per WPC 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Did the NAMS initialize way too strong or am I making things up? I doubt this is currently a 988mb storm.

Correct

did that at 06 z too. 

Looks like there's a low out there ~ 995 mb, replete with a bent back warm front and dangling cold boundary, yet the NAM-aramadingdong thinks it's a 985 Cat 1 hurricane.

[tiger_deF]

Definitely looks to be intensifying at a decent clip, core looks way healthier than even a few hours ago

[DirtySnowDen]

The perfect storm.

[MegaMike]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tolland CT and Stonington CT 

What app/website is this from?

I'm impressed that it has estimates from most major modeling systems.

My only issue with it: mean(53.7+23.4+42.1+20.2+51.2+23.5+58.4+27.4+43.2+20.4+41.2+21.7+41.8+23.5) == 35.1mph

I'm not sure where they're getting 17.8mph from.

[Typhoon Tip]

You know ...there are certain things the NAM is good at - though they seldom if ever opportune to showcase for this forum. Namely, 'convective initiation'  

Another thing, I really like looking at the FOUS grid before winter storms.   I know it's error and idiosyncratics.  I apply those second nature on the fly and find those numerical aspects to be hugely useful for interpolating weather aspects. 

So it will be missed.    I'm not trying to defend it's synoptic horror show ...particularly beyond 48 hours, no.  But when this model goes away, there will be no FOUS gridded product from these other models to be acquainted with.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

What app/website is this from?

I'm impressed that it has estimates from most major modeling systems.

My only issue with it: mean(53.7+23.4+42.1+20.2+51.2+23.5+58.4+27.4+43.2+20.4+41.2+21.7+41.8+23.5) == 35.1mph

I'm not sure where they're getting 17.8mph from.

Paging @Ginx snewx

[OrangeCTWX]

ICON/RGEM both south of 6z, neither “land falling” info Long Island anymore. But RGEM was stronger than its previous run. 

[DirtySnowDen]

It will shift north about 50-100 miles if every global is correct, take the blend and since the “trend is your friend”, this will rival the blizzard of 1978, minus the cold. Usually, anomalously cold temps and a kiss of tropical air are not forecasted well.

[OrangeCTWX]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

995mb at 12z per WPC 

ICON initialized exactly at 995mb for what it’s worth. Gets it down to 987mb

[CoastalWx]

Naked swirl 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, OrangeCTWX said:

ICON initialized exactly at 99mb for what it’s worth. Gets it down to 987mb

99mb is pretty low....

[OrangeCTWX]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

99mb is pretty low....

That would certainly give us the damage Kev is looking for.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

99mb is pretty low....

99 problems but the atmospheric pressure ain’t one?

[EastonSN+]

I am dreading this. Probably going to lose power again if the RGEM verifies.

[MegaMike]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Paging @Ginx snewx

Ah. I think I see it now.

It's showing both wind speed and wind gust.

Wind Speed: 23.4+20.2+23.5+27.4+20.4+21.7+23.5

Wind Gust: 53.7+42.1+51.2+58.4+43.2+41.2+41.8

Still not getting a mean wind speed of 17.8 though.

I still like the visual/display!

[DirtySnowDen]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

99 problems but the atmospheric pressure ain’t one?

Technically it’s 1013.25 mb.

[NeonPeon]

I'm not hugely impressed by this one at the moment, but I'm feeling more cavalier now that I removed the large white pine from the corner of my tiny garden.

[Ginx snewx]

Nice deathbands.