WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That cluster looks like garbage. Just a bunch of crapvection. Tornado risk is the best east of here into S New Jersey, IMO. Yeah, I’m not impressed for more than a breezy shower for MBY 2 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Storm east of Thurmont could get interesting Has a nice hook for the moment… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Internally, it seems that SPC wanted to get something out as storms were firing earlier than expected on the Blue Ridge and the Chestertown cell. And now are replacing the areas where they feel the red box is needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: Red Hahahah I was coming to eat my words lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: Internally, it seems that SPC wanted to get something out as storms were firing earlier than expected on the Blue Ridge and the Chestertown cell. And now are replacing the areas where they feel the red box is needed. That makes sense. I too thought it would be red and was surprised when they went blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, mappy said: Hahahah I was coming to eat my words lol Need a Blue Box / Red Box version of the Duck Season / Rabbit Season Looney Toons skit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: Red Both. You win two prizes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This is a doo doo event DC South 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18z LWX Sounding 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 331 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe and Tornado Watches have been issued for parts of the area until 10 PM. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe and Tornado Watches are in effect until 10 PM. - After a brief lull Friday, additional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Friday night into Saturday. - Thunderstorm chances increase on Sunday before drier conditions move in early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe and Tornado Watches are in effect until 10 PM. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Our atmosphere is characterized by 90F temps and mid 70s dewpoints with up to 3500 J/KG of MUCAPE, DCAPE of 418 J/kg, 40 kt of 0-6 km shear, and 0-3 km SRH of 220 m^2/S^2 based on our 18Z IAD sounding. Storms have already exhibited mid-level rotation, particularly the one over the eastern shore of MD. Expect discrete supercells this afternoon with a sig tornado potential, particularly along and south of I-70 where 18Z gridded NUCAPS data showed a tight low-level moisture gradient. By evening, storms may congeal into an MCS or line as shown in earlier and most recent HRRR forecasts. Flash flooding risk is expected to remain low due to progressive storm motions of around 27kt, but brief intense rainfall rates of 2"/hour are possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: 18z LWX Sounding That’s an impressive sounding for us. The low level directional shear is way better than I expected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Severe warned storm to my north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: 18z LWX Sounding That is outstanding low-level shear. "Hockey stick" hodograph at low-levels. 0-0.5 km shear of 29 kt? Wow. SCP 14.8. Mid-level lapse rates not good, but mesocyclone presence can compensate for that if we can get a storm established/persist. Ride any boundaries! And yet the current storm closest to DC just can't do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 minutes ago, H2O said: This is a doo doo event DC South We were thinking of grilling out this evening and that looks to be a go. Bright sunny afternoon/evening down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Initiation trying near Harrisonburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Quite the storm in Potomac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The line forming is going to be so lame when it comes thru here… then will blow up and hit the same spots that have been getting storms all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 0.39” in 10 minutes sun trying pop out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, vortex95 said: That is outstanding low-level shear. "Hockey stick" hodograph at low-levels. 0-0.5 km shear of 29 kt? Wow. SCP 14.8. Mid-level lapse rates not good, but mesocyclone presence can compensate for that if we can get a storm established/persist. Ride any boundaries! And yet the current storm closest to DC just can't do it! MLCAPE of 1100 and skinny. 0-3km CAPE is only ~70. The 3-8km shear is only ~10kts. I'm thinking water loading in the upper levels is leading to cold pool production that's killing the balance. If anything today I expect low level rotation with scud tendril funnels. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The Colesville storm has the "look," like it is ready to go anytime! EDIT: Ragged wall cloud evident seen from College Park. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 35 minutes ago, H2O said: This is a doo doo event DC South I thought this was susposed to be east of DC and the Eastern Shore. It just ended up Frederick and Glan Burnie This thunderstorm season has been super boring in my area. I've watch probably 15 thunderstorms miss me and hit Glen Burnie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, vortex95 said: The Colesville storm has the "look," like it is ready to go anytime! EDIT: Ragged wall cloud evident seen from College Park. That's Glen Burnies next tornado. I should just drive up there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I thought this was susposed to be east of DC and the Eastern Shore. It just ended up Frederick and Glan Burnie This thunderstorm season has been super boring in my area. I've watch probably 15 thunderstorms miss me and hit Glen Burnie. It may well be still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: MLCAPE of 1100 and skinny. 0-3km CAPE is only ~70. The 3-8km shear is only ~10kts. I'm thinking water loading in the upper levels is leading to cold pool production that's killing the balance. If anything today I expect low level rotation with scud tendril funnels. Darn those mid level winds! Does not push the precip downwind enough! However, legit supercell passed just N of College Park w/ a ragged wall cloud (pix through the window ). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, vortex95 said: It may well be still. Yeah. Looking at radar and satellite gives me hope. That outflow boundary near DC might be the focal point of new storms that effect PG and AA countries. I need some action. I'd love one training event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looks like @WxUSAF got a nice quick hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, yoda said: Looks like @WxUSAF got a nice quick hit Yeah it’s a car wash out there. Deluge. But not much else outside some thunder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago Is Mount Holly's website down ? https://www.weather.gov/phi/ I really hope not, but I can't get it to load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 56 minutes ago Share Posted 56 minutes ago Dover DE Tornado warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 54 minutes ago Share Posted 54 minutes ago 30 minutes ago, yoda said: Initiation trying near Harrisonburg Madison to Culpepper storms going up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, frd said: Dover DE Tornado warning same storm that prompted the earlier warning. storm has maintained rotation throughout the afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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