Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah it's like pulling teeth most years to get anything decent outside of a day or two in April

Spring this year may be one of memories... it's been forever ago qr have had this much cold, ice and water temps in the 30s . Unless that's a big big stretch of 70s/80s early on i can't see it getting warm for a while unless your away from shorelines. 

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

looks cold for a couple weeks but hopefully we break and March is warm...wishful thinking probably

If this turns into the GFS going down in flames again, I don’t see how anyone in their right mind can take anything it shows for the rest of this winter seriously…..

[Brian5671]

Just now, snowman19 said:

If this turns into the GFS going down in flames again, I don’t see how anyone in their right mind can take anything it shows for the rest of this winter seriously…..

What a waste of money this model is...

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Spring this year may be one of memories... it's been forever ago qr have had this much cold, ice and water temps in the 30s . Unless that's a big big stretch of 70s/80s early on i can't see it getting warm for a while unless your away from shorelines. 

the key here will be offshore or onshore wind-any stretch of east or northeast winds is going to be more awful that usual given the water temps being BN

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

If this turns into the GFS going down in flames again, I don’t see how anyone in their right mind can take anything it shows for the rest of this winter seriously…..

Or any model lol. They all had a big hit other than the OP Euro.

Trash job by the entire field.

[Wxbear25]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Every model isnt that far away from the gfs except the euro

It depends on what you mean. In terms of “can the models get to looking like the GFS without fundamentally shifting the entire pattern”? Sure

But the evolution of how the waves move, interact with one-another, their positioning are very much different

Both solutions are physically possible to occur, but gun to my head I’d say the GFS is the least likely of the two by a considerable margin attm

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this turns into the GFS going down in flames again, I don’t see how anyone in their right mind can take anything it shows for the rest of this winter seriously…..

This system is a good test. The ECMWF stood alone for a time. Now the GFS is doing so. If the ECMWF or something close to it verifies, that will again expose the GFS's deficiencies. Unfortunately, there does not appear to be any urgency to address the model's flaws.

[coastalplainsnowman]

36 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

March snow is not really a thing anymore for the coastal plain

Anymore? Ever?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Spring this year may be one of memories... it's been forever ago qr have had this much cold, ice and water temps in the 30s . Unless that's a big big stretch of 70s/80s early on i can't see it getting warm for a while unless your away from shorelines. 

Late February/early March 2015 comes to mind. Although, things turned warmer as the spring went on. May 2015 was near record warm.

NYC

Feb 2015: 23.9 -12.0

Mar 2015: 38.1 -4.7

Apr 2015: 54.3 +0.6

May 2015: 68.5 +5.3

I won't be surprised if one of the spring months was near record warm.

[Wxbear25]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This system is a good test. The ECMWF stood alone for a time. Now the GFS is doing so. If the ECMWF or something close to it verifies, that will again expose the GFS's deficiencies. Unfortunately, there does not appear to be any urgency to address the model's flaws.

Are you implying that science isn’t at the forefront of our current heads of Government? Who woulda thunk it

Euro should be running soon. Godspeed, all

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

22 minutes ago, Snowman92 said:

Wait till at least friday night to write this storm off. Still early for now. 

 

This could still be maybe a strip of 3 to 6" for the region which is still fine to close out the winter

To each his own but I never understand why everyone is so anxious to close out winter in February. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Late February/early March 2015 comes to mind. Although, things turned warmer as the spring went on. May 2015 was near record warm.

NYC

Feb 2015: 23.9 -12.0

Mar 2015: 38.1 -4.7

Apr 2015: 54.3 +0.6

May 2015: 68.5 +5.3

I won't be surprised if one of the spring months was near record warm.

It could be worse. Consider the last four months in Phoenix: November: 3rd warmest; December: 1st warmest; January: 4th warmest; February: likely 1st warmest. Winter 2025-2026: 1st warmest by a large margin and potentially warmer than Phoenix's coolest spring on record.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah it's like pulling teeth most years to get anything decent outside of a day or two in April

Can't really depend on 70 degree days until mid May. Even then some years it's difficult. 

[MJO812]

These models are atrocious.  AI euro more east. No snow.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

These models are atrocious.  AI euro more east. No snow.

That's a wrap.   GFS vs the world and we know how that works out.

[Monty]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this turns into the GFS going down in flames again, I don’t see how anyone in their right mind can take anything it shows for the rest of this winter seriously…..

If only there were 12 more weather balloons. 

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

These models are atrocious.  AI euro more east. No snow.

A near miss/scraper has been the most likely outcome for some time now. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I think the 12Z Euro AI may have been the final call on this storm for our region. At most I think it grazes the area with a light snowfall. It could be a complete whiff. We'll know for sure by sometime tomorrow. But that's how I am currently leaning. Very light snowfall to zippo.

WX/PT

[Wxbear25]

Yeah… if the AIFS and UKMET are right, that wave-spacing is just gonna kill any possibility the feature can turn the corner fast enough. really need that lead wave to slow down, the one from Canada to speed up or some combination thereof. Right now, they’re perfectly spaced so as to kill any chance of doing something for places like NYC, at least as depicted on those models

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think the 12Z Euro AI may have been the final call on this storm for our region. At most I think it grazes the area with a light snowfall. It could be a complete whiff. We'll know for sure by sometime tomorrow. But that's how I am currently leaning. Very light snowfall to zippo.

WX/PT

and anything light is not going to accumulate unless it's at night-it's not all that cold

[nycsnow]

 can’t get one coastal storm to go our way lol… that’s about it ready for spring  mode. Over this winter was nothing but wasted cold and fantasy storms 

[kat5hurricane]

24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Or any model lol. They all had a big hit other than the OP Euro.

Trash job by the entire field.

The GFS is the only one that stuck to the big hit idea, all the others moved off of it. We can all see where this is going when the GFS is on its own. When was the last time it scored a coup when it was on its own? I honestly don't remember 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

The GFS is the only one that stuck to the big hit idea, all the others moved off of it. We can all see where this is going when the GFS is on its own. When was the last time it scored a coup when it was on its own? I honestly don't remember 

3 days out? Never. It doesn't even have the nam on its side 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

The GFS is the only one that stuck to the big hit idea, all the others moved off of it. We can all see where this is going when the GFS is on its own. When was the last time it scored a coup when it was on its own? I honestly don't remember 

I'll take "never" for $500 Alex!

[MJO812]

Euro going to be closer. Going to just miss the phase. Out to 75.

Nvm its way ots but has a norlun trough.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

3 days out? Never. It doesn't even have the nam on its side 

the NAM is in essence useless beyond 48-60, it can do anything possible beyond that and you cannot really put faith in it at all being right or not.

[njwx7]

Long time lurker, first time poster.

 

I think the writing is on the wall with this one, unfortunately.

GFS vs ECMWF/EPS/Euro-AI/UKM does not bode well 9 times out of 10.

Barring a major shift on the 12z euro, i think the only thing that keeps this threat alive is if we see increased support for the GFS solution on the EPS. If the EPS holds serve or even shifts east then I think a GFS solution is off the table.

Regardless, this will be a close call and could easily still turn into an advisory-level event for some.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

the NAM is in essence useless beyond 48-60, it can do anything possible beyond that and you cannot really put faith in it at all being right or not.

But I've seen it in line with the gfs when all other models show something different 

[wthrmn654]

Can't get a freaking noreaster anymore only 1 in the past 2 years possibly 2...