Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

In case anyone is interested in my summary posted elsewhere, here you go. Well, Dr. No, the King, looks like he might be back, as most of the global models tonight at 0Z caved to the Euro depiction over the last several runs of a much more progressive, flatter storm much further to our SE. So, the chances of a major snowstorm have gone down substantially, but not to zero, and the chances of even a minor to moderate storm have gone down significantly. The AI models, which have done quite well in the 4-6 day range this winter, still show a moderate to significant storm (with only one model the AIGFS still showing a major snowstorm)., while all of the physics-based models show either no snow or only a few inches. The cries you heard last night were from all the snow lovers around the world, lol. Below is a summary of the 12Z to 0Z changes...

• The ICON went from a 12-18" monster for all to nada for everyone (1-2" for AC to Cape May). That's nuts.
• The GFS went from 6-12+" for everyone at 12Z to 2-5" for most at 0Z
• CMC went from an 18-24" monster for everyone at 12Z to <1" for everyone at 0Z. Also nuts.
• The UK went from 8-14" for everyone at 12Z to ~1" along 95 and a few inches for the coast at 0Z. More nuts.
• The Euro had little to no snow for everyone at both 12Z and 0Z. Dr. No.
• The AIGFS went from 12-18" for everyone at 12Z to 6-12" for everyone (the high end at the coast) at 0Z.
• The Euro-AIFS went from 6-12" for everyone at 12Z to 2-3" for 95/3-5" coast at 0Z.
• The Weathernext 2 went from 8-14" for everyone at 12Z to 2-3" for 95/3-5" coast at 0Z.

 

 

All models beat by a model that will be replaced lol. Why couldn't thebEURO be king in January 2015. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It’s a fragile setup in a fast moving pattern. Lots of things can shift around and ruin the storm setup. It’s still 4 days out but this wouldn’t be the first whiff or OTS this or last winter. 

I am not disappointed in the fact that a storm in the LR disappeared. Its the model performance. I have never seen this before.

[bluewave]

The lead system out front develops a little faster so we get more confluence to the north this run as it becomes the 50/50 low. So the phase happens a little later and the 2nd system develops further southeast.

It’s tough to get an higher end event like some of the OPs were showing yesterday with systems so close together. Also the ridge axis out West is pressing too hard to the east like we have been seeing repeatedly this winter with many coastal lows tracking further south.

The hope with this one is that areas that are just under 25” on the season can pick up enough to cross the finish line.

 

[EastonSN+]

Someone posted a while back the ocean temps, which were running well below average. The configuration of the temps off the coast would favor a further south track moving ENE. Wonder if this is part of the issue this year.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am not disappointed in the fact that a storm in the LR disappeared. Its the model performance. I have never seen this before.

I think anyone that has been doing this for awhile knew that a perfect setup at day 6 was unlikely to hold regardless of model performance.    The Euro showing nothing at 12z yesterday was also big red flag.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I think anyone that has been doing this for awhile knew that a perfect setup at day 6 was unlikely to hold regardless of model performance.    The Euro showing nothing at 12z yesterday was also big red flag.

I know. I have seen probably hundreds of storms dissappear. I have never seen a situation where ALL models including crap models like the JMA and ICON show something then its gone. 

2015 at least the EURO had the NAM by its side being INCORRECT). 

[NEG NAO]

43 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Nice bump in the EPS mean, also...

The Euro is now teasing us - trying to make us all crazy............BTW anyone notice the mainstream media especially online now advertising this as a "big storm" ?

[WestBabylonWeather]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think anyone that has been doing this for awhile knew that a perfect setup at day 6 was unlikely to hold regardless of model performance.    The Euro showing nothing at 12z yesterday was also big red flag.

Deep down we all knew day 6 perfect setup was prone to disaster. Same script. Disappointing yes. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

you don't want to be in the jackpot yet, let this trend northwest the next few days and we're at a blizzard warning! Think positive it could realistically happen. One thing to note, the later this storm develops the better because it has that chance of stalling developing and riding up the coast instead of just fast flowing and bouncing without impact! I wonder what I post today on my weather page! I'm sticking with a direct impact I think this comes back at least somewhat!

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Deep down we all knew day 6 perfect setup was prone to disaster. Same script. Disappointing yes. 

yes - but go back to Boxing Day 2010 here same thing  happened 4-6 days out

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

you don't want to be in the jackpot yet, let this trend northwest the next few days and we're at a blizzard warning! Think positive it could realistically happen. One thing to note, the later this storm develops the better because it has that chance of stalling developing and riding up the coast instead of just fast flowing and bouncing without impact! I wonder what I post today on my weather page! I'm sticking with a direct impact I think this comes back at least somewhat!

where is your evidence to support this theory of yours ? 

[TriPol]

12 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

you don't want to be in the jackpot yet, let this trend northwest the next few days and we're at a blizzard warning! Think positive it could realistically happen. One thing to note, the later this storm develops the better because it has that chance of stalling developing and riding up the coast instead of just fast flowing and bouncing without impact! I wonder what I post today on my weather page! I'm sticking with a direct impact I think this comes back at least somewhat!

POV: You're too much of a weather weenie for a forum full of weather weenies.

[NEG NAO]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nam and Rgem are slightly more amped than 0z

84 hr. NAM is even more fun to look at - 12Z should be fun too

[weatherpruf]

42 minutes ago, TriPol said:

POV: You're too much of a weather weenie for a forum full of weather weenies.

a man's got to know his limitations....

[wthrmn654]

Seems fitting but this is like the winter Olympics final game, models version

USA, versus, Europe, versus the other countries.  Who will be crowned gold?

Stay tuned

[weatherpruf]

14 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Seems fitting but this is like the winter Olympics final game, models version

USA, versus, Europe, versus the other countries.  Who will be crowned gold?

Stay tuned

americans have never dominated winter olympics. 

[SACRUS]

 

Seasonal numerical forecasting euphoria to the doldrumms .  if you go back and check the threats / discussions from Jan 17/18 and the NC storm similar challenges with coastal formation and even some of the same models run to run changes.   Each situation is unique and perhaps as we go deeper into the season we can ween off the seasonal trends.  

[ILoveWinter]

15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

americans have never dominated winter olympics. 

True, maybe we should look at any Norwegian forecast models?

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

True, maybe we should look at any Norwegian forecast models?

norway; it's gonna snow. safe forecast until may.....

[Nibor]

One encouraging sign from the 6z euro the energy on Saturday over New England exited faster. Probably helped lead to the system coming closer to the coast compared to 0z. 

[Freezing Drizzle]

13 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

There's 39 total, 12 inch or greater storms in Central Park and 8 from Mid February (15th) through March. The most recent is is Feb 25 2010 20.9 inches that you noted, Feb 19, 1979 12.7 inches, Feb 20, 1921 12.5 inches and 5 in March. Not as many as I thought there would be so it does show how difficult it is for the City to get a blockbuster this time of year.

Yeah, @weatherpruf has a point about this period of winter.

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, Nibor said:

One encouraging sign from the 6z euro the energy on Saturday over New England exited faster. Probably helped lead to the system coming closer to the coast compared to 0z. 

still to early to tell if its real or not stand by for the 12Z runs - this doesn't look to encouraging although its out of range

[Wxbear25]

For what little it’s worth, a lot of SIGNIFICANTLY encouraging changes at the 500mb level on the 12z ICON

Did we give up when the Germans bombed Cold Spring Harbor?

[EastonSN+]

ICON is a delmarva special.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

ICON is a delmarva special.

We all know they’ve been lacking down there and need more. 

[SACRUS]

 

ICON north of 00z but still a miss

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

For what little it’s worth, a lot of SIGNIFICANTLY encouraging changes at the 500mb level on the 12z ICON

Did we give up when the Germans bombed Cold Spring Harbor?

It was better than 6z. However our issue is not being closer to the coast but rather the storm gaining latitude.

The biggest runs had a double low with the initial low getting to WV. Now that this low is missing the storm forms and moves ENE instead of NE. Perhaps due to the below average water temps up here.

[EastonSN+]

Yesterday. The initial low gets to PA.

[Wxbear25]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

ICON is a delmarva special.

Take a look at the 500 charts, this run verbatim doesn’t get us there, but the changes were marked and in the right direction overall

[EastonSN+]

Resulting in this.