It's coming? 1/31-2/1

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Jersey Shore Special.

Reminds me of December 1988. MacArthur airport reported a blizzard while NYC barely got flurries.

[oceanctyguy]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice. Warning level snows Jersey shore. I'll take it.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

We just had a foot of snow. The Hudson River is almost frozen over. And Don is doing a pbp of the 84 hour NAM. Are we this desperate? Should we be looking at the JMA which scored a coup 20 years ago?

I just wanted to illustrate that it makes a difference which low will be dominant. The lead wave and the storm will almost certainly pass far too the east with little impact on most of the NYC area. If it's the second one, the storm will be more impactful. 

[EastonSN+]

Must be some interesting lows on the ensembles 

[Nibor]

More spread on the EPS. Previous runs were super consolidated with the tracks. 

[jm1220]

Again there aren’t huge changes needed for a significant to major storm for most. The kicker stays behind a little bit, the low closes off a little later/NE, the vorticity is a little less strung out/messy as it clears the coast. Eventually it becomes clear it won’t work out and you have to fold your hand but we’re not there yet. 

[nycsnow]

Ukie ensembles bring 0.3 qpf into boroughs 

at 12z it was 0 lol

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Ukie ensembles bring 0.3 qpf into boroughs 

at 12z it was 0 lol

Yep

[NJwx85]

14 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Ukie ensembles bring 0.3 qpf into boroughs 

at 12z it was 0 lol

 

[Tatamy]

52 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I would be more optimistic if I lived out on the island. For those of us in the NW crew, this one is over and I’m fine with it. I had 20” on Sunday and 4 or 5 plowable snowfalls before that. Also my roof is happier.

This is definitely one for the coastal people.  Plenty of snow on the ground here too.  I hope it does come together for those to the S and E.  

[MJO812]

Sref 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Decent trends. It’s breathing heavy again. 

[Big Jims Videos]

49 minutes ago, oceanctyguy said:

Nice. Warning level snows Jersey shore. I'll take it.

 

That would probably require blizzard warnings from Cape May to Sandy Hook (if that scenario played out verbatim)

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, UKWeatherGeek. said:

ECM18z gives NYC 5mm precip / 9.4cm snow.

E LI 24mm/34cm.

Boston 34mm/47cm.

Speak English.  

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref 

Ant is it within its range ?

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Speak English.  

I read that and thought - wtf is a kilometer 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Would be close to blizzard criteria if euro verified wonder what the lowest total blizzard amount is for nyc?? 

I think there was one in January 1948 with 4 or 5 inches during a great stretch of winter.

[SnoSki14]

We need to see some serious jumps in models soon as time's ticking. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Ant is it within its range ?

No

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

We need to see some serious jumps in models soon as time's ticking. 

Serious ? No we dont

[Franklin0529]

13 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Ant is it within its range ?

No

[Franklin0529]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We need to see some serious jumps in models soon as time's ticking. 

Did you not just see the euro? One more like that an it's a blizzard 

[Nibor]

21 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Decent trends. It’s breathing heavy again. 

More like it’s a mini miracle and the breathing tube isn’t needed anymore. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No

thought not 

[NorthShoreWx]

20 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I read that and thought - wtf is a kilometer 

I had to think too much to figure out that he was using 15:1 ratios at all of those locations.  If this thing hits LI, it'll be around 10:1.

[jdj5211]

Major difference is the PNA ridge amplification. I’d like to see that continue tonight. It would amplify the trough downstream. This would pull it further SW. Look at the height trends starting to rise off the east coast. I don’t think we’re out of the game yet. It’s the bottom of the 7th but we have a few runners on and we’re down by a few runs!

[oceanctyguy]

31 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

That would probably require blizzard warnings from Cape May to Sandy Hook (if that scenario played out verbatim)

Thinking the same. Even if we get nothing winds will still be strong especially near the coasts.

[dseagull]

If a weather weenies mental health crisis were to occur with 00z or 12z runs, I hope the victim also has a chiropractor.   The whiplash could be deadly...(AKA 2010)

[Irish]

18 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Major difference is the PNA ridge amplification. I’d like to see that continue tonight. It would amplify the trough downstream. This would pull it further SW. Look at the height trends starting to rise off the east coast. I don’t think we’re out of the game yet. It’s the bottom of the 7th but we have a few runners on and we’re down by a few runs!

I know a guy from another board who has said we're getting hit by this storm all along.  If we keep trending this way, he'll be right.