It's coming 1/31-2/1

[wthrmn654]

What in the hell is cfs lmfao. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

What in the hell is cfs lmfao. 

a model with very low skill scores-bottom of the list I believe

[Santa Claus]

probably gonna hit 55 F on sunday

[NJwx85]

Not much change on the GFS through 06z Saturday.

[NJwx85]

What a mess with all of these surface lows.

[nycsnow]

AIGFS still a no

[NJwx85]

The GFS is a hot mess, focusing on the SLP near Bermuda as the dominant feature.

[coastalplainsnowman]

8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

What in the hell is cfs lmfao. 

Crushes Forum Spectacularly, apparently

[Franklin0529]

All these models are chasing convection out east. GFS is not gonna work either. I'll give it until Tommorow before I back out. But not looking good right now 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

The GFS is a hot mess, focusing on the SLP near Bermuda as the dominant feature.

Most models are chasing that convection 

[NJwx85]

It’s going to end up a tad worse than 06z. The trough axis is a tick further East.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS is a hot mess, focusing on the SLP near Bermuda as the dominant feature.

Just a mess of different vort maxes, not consolidated. Always seems to be something messing the outcome up even if another factor becomes more favorable. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Most models are chasing that convection 

then we may not know for another couple days-alot of time you see a correction west when they chase convection

[NJwx85]

No chance with upper level winds like this 

[SACRUS]

 

1/28 12z GFS AI AIGFS total QPF

[SACRUS]

 

1/28 12z GFS Total QPF

[Brian5671]

oddly ends up better than 6z GFS

[NJwx85]

Bye, bye

[Neblizzard]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Bye, bye

Yup ,  which I said earlier this morning.  The threat is dead with that upper level pattern. 

[NEG NAO]

The 12Z GFS = 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

oddly ends up better than 6z GFS

There was a bit more precip on the NW side but it was a setup back in the upper levels.

[NJwx85]

Just now, Neblizzard said:

Yup ,  which I said earlier this morning.  The threat is dead with that upper level pattern. 

You can’t get a storm to turn the corner with a big positively tilted trough, especially when it starts that far South.

[Neblizzard]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

The 12Z GFS = 

Minus a few ECMWF runs of this showing a blizzard ,  this was never our storm. 

[NJwx85]

Early on the Canadian looks better.

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You can’t get a storm to turn the corner with a big positively tilted trough, especially when it starts that far South.

the storm on the 12Z GFS does turn the corner off of FLA and redevelops right over Hatteras stalls and deepens - But then it hits a brick wall and makes a hard right turn - question I have is will the upper level pattern change and allow it to continue north along the coast ?

[Juturna]

But...I was told this was coming. Why would Rjay betray us like this? 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the storm on the 12Z GFS does turn the corner off of FLA and redevelops right over Hatteras stalls and deepens - But then it hits a brick wall and makes a hard right turn - question I have is will the upper level pattern change and allow it to continue north along the coast ?

No, I just showed you the 250mb winds. The trough orientation is wrong.

[NJwx85]

The Canadian is going to end up better.

[WeatherGeek2025]

cmc is like 150 miles west 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cmc is like 150 miles west