It's coming 1/31-2/1

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Lean left, left!

It’s really just some small tweaks to where the low closes off, kicker, etc and we’re back to an absolute bomb for 95% of us. To be honest if this one really hits the snow will be deeper than even 2010-11 and I have no clue where it’ll go. 

[Snowlover11]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s really just some small tweaks to where the low closes off, kicker, etc and we’re back to an absolute bomb for 95% of us. To be honest if this one really hits the snow will be deeper than even 2010-11 and I have no clue where it’ll go. 

I want one more biggy, after that im done with the snow lol

[North and West]

Lean left, left!

.

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

I want one more biggy, after that im done with the snow lol

This rhetoric is disappointing. Years of bad winters has softened the NYC weenie as if left to bloat in the stagnant water of a Nathan’s street cart. We can do better. 

[Snowlover11]

Just now, Nibor said:

This rhetoric is disappointing. Years of bad winters has softened the NYC weenie as if left to bloat in the stagnant water of a Nathan’s street cart. We can do better. 

It’s all fun and games till you throw your back and hammies out. Im sore as hell.

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

It’s all fun and games till you throw your back and hammies out. Im sore as hell.

The suffering is half the fun!

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Euro AI hates the storm is more ots

can't post map says file would exceed size allowed 

Not a good sign imo 

[nycsnow]

[WeatherGeek2025]

why do I have this feeling that the precipitation shield isn't wide enough to the northwest of the Low pressure. A system that deep usually has a way wider precipitation shield and that usually doesn't get modeled right until about 2-3 days away from the actual event!

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Euro AI hates the storm is more ots

can't post map says file would exceed size allowed 

that's it i've seen enough, I'm out

good luck guys

[nycsnow]

Still plenty of time. But need something to trend positive by tomorrow morning IMO

[Jersey_Snowhole]

If euro Ai is a miss, euro will follow suite 

[Monty]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

 

why do I have this feeling that the precipitation shield isn't wide enough to the northwest of the Low pressure. A system that deep usually has a way wider precipitation shield and that usually doesn't get modeled right until about 2-3 days away from the actual event!

Because you're a big weenie

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The suffering is half the fun!

And oh man do we suffer in this hobby. 

[hooralph]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

that's it i've seen enough, I'm out

good luck guys

This is for the best.

[TriPol]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Common theme on the 12z cycle: The GFS and GGEM have brought the precipitation farther north and west. It's too soon to write off the storm for the NYC area and especially Long Island. Details still can't be resolved reliably this far out. 

Do you think we get a western movement?

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Do you think we get a western movement?

Let's see where the synoptic details are tomorrow. At 500 mb, there remain some important differences among the guidance. 

[Juturna]

Not sure why we are locking in a hit or a miss on Tuesday. Last storm's solutions were far from locked down this far out. 

Wednesday Eve/Thursday morning is when I'll be reasonably assured that a solution is nearly there.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Feb 1st storm still a threat but as of now is out to sea, Feb 5th-6th currently more of a threat. This could all change. 

WX/PT

[nycwinter]

ever since the 2010 after christmas blizzard i learned nothing is set in stone this far out as that storm was modeled to be a miss for nyc..

[Ridingtime]

It’s mainly concerning because of how well the Euro AIFS performs in this range. If it was any other model, there would be much less concern

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

If euro Ai is a miss, euro will follow suite 

Not how it works

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

ever since the 2010 after christmas blizzard i learned nothing is set in stone this far out as that storm was modeled to be a miss for nyc..

Especially big storms

[Jersey_Snowhole]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not how it works

But it did look at the end results. Not saying it cant change. 

[nycsnow]

12z euro looks good for Bermuda 

[Franklin0529]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not how it works

This winter yes it does 

[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

12z euro looks good for Bermuda 

And Nova Scotia

[DreamBig]

honestly, if it were better than throwing a dart, they'd just update the model to account for any consistent bias in the model. ergo, there isn't that much that can be said for sure, other than that the models will move around. right now for the worse, but maybe tomorrow for the better

[Nibor]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Let's see where the synoptic details are tomorrow. At 500 mb, there remain some important differences among the guidance. 

[NJwx85]

That kicker is stronger and in a terrible spot. To have any chance it needs be North of the border on Sunday morning.