February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Climate175]

6 hours ago, Weather Will said:

It is showing a storm, relax. What model is going to nail storm track 10 days out?

This. GFS, EURO, CMC and their ensembles are now all showing a potential storm Feb 14th-16th. That’s the only thing to conclude. Trying to figure out where the rain/snow line, totals, etc will be 9-10 days out is unwise. That convo starts to make more sense like 2-3 days out. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

All the ops this morning favor a cutter but we haven’t seen a cutter in quite some time.  The precip distribution on the GEFS looks favorable for us around 10 days, heaviest just south of us/over us.  EPS also doesn’t look very cutter like. 

[Chris78]

10 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

All the ops this morning favor a cutter but we haven’t seen a cutter in quite some time.  The precip distribution on the GEFS looks favorable for us around 10 days, heaviest just south of us/over us.  EPS also doesn’t look very cutter like. 

Definitely.  GEFS likes next Saturday. 

 

[Climate175]

10 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

All the ops this morning favor a cutter but we haven’t seen a cutter in quite some time.  The precip distribution on the GEFS looks favorable for us around 10 days, heaviest just south of us/over us.  EPS also doesn’t look very cutter like. 

Whatever becomes of this potential storm, it looks like the major global models are at least indicating it will have a lot of moisture to work with.

[RevWarReenactor]

The 6z GFS shows one rainer after the next. Lets be honest with each other- its probably right. The details might not be right- but we need to remember our climo. We don't do marginal situations well. Heck we can't even seem to manage snowing when its 16 degrees outside. I-95 is probably cooked. Mountains still have a chance. I know you might weenie and tell me to go go to the panic room. But am I wrong? Don't say I didn't warn you. 

This is the problem when the MA, when its super cold its congrats North Carolina. When its marginal, its congrats Poconos PA. We are the snow anus. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

The 6z GFS shows one rainer after the next. Lets be honest with each other- its probably right. The details might not be right- but we need to remember our climo. We don't do marginal situations well. Heck we can't even seem to manage snowing when its 16 degrees outside. I-95 is probably cooked. Mountains still have a chance. I know you might weenie and tell me to go go to the panic room. But am I wrong? Don't say I didn't warn you. 

This is the problem when the MA, when its super cold its congrats North Carolina. When its marginal, its congrats Poconos PA. We are the snow anus. 

Imagine waking up at 7am and posting this lol

[stormy]

Its all about TRACK this morning.

IMO, the EURO erodes the wedge too quickly on the 14th.

[RevWarReenactor]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Imagine waking up at 7am and posting this lol

I woke up at 4am today, and my analysis is actually spot on. 

[RevWarReenactor]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Have a great summer. See you in the fall!

Why can't I be pro reality and pro climo and still participate in a discussion on our snow chances? Im confused. 

[CAPE]

Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

I woke up at 4am today, and my analysis is actually spot on. 

Your 'analysis' is a broad generalization and is whiny and lazy as fuck.

[Chris78]

I don't have the snow mean but this doesn't look like a cutter to me.

[ravensrule]

14 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Imagine waking up at 7am and posting this lol

He probably puts the same amount of shit in his toilet every morning. 

[anotherman]

20 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

The 6z GFS shows one rainer after the next. Lets be honest with each other- its probably right. The details might not be right- but we need to remember our climo. We don't do marginal situations well. Heck we can't even seem to manage snowing when its 16 degrees outside. I-95 is probably cooked. Mountains still have a chance. I know you might weenie and tell me to go go to the panic room. But am I wrong? Don't say I didn't warn you. 

This is the problem when the MA, when its super cold its congrats North Carolina. When its marginal, its congrats Poconos PA. We are the snow anus. 

Yes, it sucks to not wake up to pretty snow maps, but it doesn't mean winter is over.

[TSSN+]

35 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

The 6z GFS shows one rainer after the next. Lets be honest with each other- its probably right. The details might not be right- but we need to remember our climo. We don't do marginal situations well. Heck we can't even seem to manage snowing when its 16 degrees outside. I-95 is probably cooked. Mountains still have a chance. I know you might weenie and tell me to go go to the panic room. But am I wrong? Don't say I didn't warn you. 

This is the problem when the MA, when its super cold its congrats North Carolina. When its marginal, its congrats Poconos PA. We are the snow anus. 

Take a hike buddy 

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

He probably puts the same amount of shit in his toilet every morning. 

He didn't like my post lol. He messaged me...I might post it in banter.

[CAPE]

I think I'm  gonna. So much bullshit. And Randy might be interested to see it.

[Terpeast]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar storm track as the Jan 25 one. Not saying same results exactly, but more of a general idea where it tracks towards the TVA/OHV region with gulf moisture feed, and then coastal transfer.

Obviously a further south track across TVA then across S VA would yield better results for our backyards. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

The 6z GFS shows one rainer after the next. Lets be honest with each other- its probably right. The details might not be right- but we need to remember our climo. We don't do marginal situations well. Heck we can't even seem to manage snowing when its 16 degrees outside. I-95 is probably cooked. Mountains still have a chance. I know you might weenie and tell me to go go to the panic room. But am I wrong? Don't say I didn't warn you. 

This is the problem when the MA, when its super cold its congrats North Carolina. When its marginal, its congrats Poconos PA. We are the snow anus. 

Man yall, I apologize for when I was in my deb period because if it was half as annoying and whiney as this, I was really fucked up.

[stormtracker]

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think I'm  gonna. So much bullshit. And Randy might be interested to see it.

Oh?

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Oh?

Check it out on banter lol

[H2O]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Man yall, I apologize for when I was in my deb period because if it was half as annoying and whiney as this, I was really fucked up.

But he’s seen the 6z GFS. Rain rain rain we suck rain rain he’s smart rain rain stop being so arrogant 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Imagine waking up at 7am and posting this lol

Let’s see 7 pm.

[Heisy]

I think this pattern is more volatile than normal. Dealing with -PNA pac energy. Every model handling it differently and you see the results from that happening. Last nights cmc split it in two and the lead wave helped reinforce HP behind it. AiGFS practically buries the wave. GFS brings it out, but the confluence is just a little bit too weak to lock in the cold air we need. I can go on and on.

Sure, there’s a better chance of a non-snow outcome, but I have low confidence in any particular model solution attm.

[H2O]

Updated the LR thread title to reflect posting requirements

[bncho]

Just now, H2O said:

Updated the LR thread title to reflect posting requirements

Looks like I'll be a lurker now. See y'all in March!

[Heisy]

The cmc progression is likely the best hope for a snowstorm here. Like I mentioned in my last post it split off a lead wave which helped reinforce cold air before the main wave eventually came east.

The 6z gfs wasn’t too far off from showing that as well. See gif below


This is probably the best progression to root for.

[TSSN+]

16 minutes ago, H2O said:

Updated the LR thread title to reflect posting requirements

F’ing hilarious 

[Ji]

16 minutes ago, H2O said:

Updated the LR thread title to reflect posting requirements

i guess I will become the forums main poster now....

 

 

just kidding of course

[frd]

Hodhodata@statistics@Statisticizer

·

16h

 

 

#USA Outlook | 5–14 March (Synoptic Focus) The composite analyses for early–mid March depict a strongly amplified hemispheric pattern, with persistent negative 500-mb height anomalies spanning much of the central and eastern United States, and a pronounced long-wave trough anchored over the continent.

 

This configuration is highly efficient at tapping Arctic air and driving southward cold-air advection well beyond typical late-winter latitudes.

 

The evolution and depth of the trough, combined with a strengthened polar jet and downstream blocking signals, closely resemble classic setups associated with major Northwest and Great Plains blizzard episodes.

 

While the exact placement of surface cyclogenesis will govern snowfall distribution, the synoptic backdrop favors one or more significant cold blasts, potentially accompanied by strong winds and wintry precipitation where moisture and lift overlap.

 

As the pattern progresses, attention shifts to possible secondary reinforcements of cold into the central and eastern U.S., with spillover risks toward the Southwest depending on trough phasing and ridge response upstream. Overall, the signal points to high-impact, episodic cold intrusions rather than a quiet transition into spring, warranting close monitoring as March unfold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

Some changes in the longrange AO. Not going as positive.