February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Jebman]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Huh? 6z gfs has shittyfrontalpassage snow. Little swath of 1-3”. Then about a foot 6 days later and ends the run with a HECS for Houston TX lol.

Please, no more wintry weather in south central TX.

I was super fortunate to never fall on that damn ice.

[aldie 22]

Wish my Greensboro meeting was today.   

[TSSN+]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I was comparing surface maps at 120hrs on 6z Icon and Gfs.

Give me whatever the icon is smokin. 

[GreyHat]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I was comparing surface maps at 120hrs on 6z Icon and Gfs.

Looking at the 120 hr 500 level maps. 

The GFS has a positive or somewhat flat trough, whereas the ICON shows a neutral trough. 

EURO AIFS supports GFS  with the positive trough.

The GFS AI trough isn't as positive as the GFS and brings a little qpf to the MD area and south. 

This big system hitting our southern parts gets out of here.

 

[Ji]

Wish my Greensboro meeting was today.   

No you don’t. They might be in dry slot hell lol

[stormy]

Icon is out on a limb compared to others at 00 and 06 with that H5 look.

12z will be very interesting to see if it persists with the 180. 

[Climate175]

18 minutes ago, stormy said:

Icon is out on a limb compared to others at 00 and 06 with that H5 look.

12z will be very interesting to see if it persists with the 180. 

Yup.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

No you don’t. They might be in dry slot hell lol

You should be keeping an eye on the 11-12th window you claimed- on the ens runs. Stop looking at the ops.

I told you I would expand that window a bit.. the trough out west might work for us with the favorable NA look towards mid month.

 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I was comparing surface maps at 120hrs on 6z Icon and Gfs.

Well lookie there there is the kicker coming southeast out of Canada both models. 

[Superstorm]

That ICON is not happening.

If the AIs don’t show it, I don’t believe it.


.

[frd]

58 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You should be keeping an eye on the 11-12th window you claimed- on the ens runs. Stop looking at the ops.

I told you I would expand that window a bit.. the trough out west might work for us with the favorable NA look towards mid month.

 

As you stated, signs of some STJ in this period possibly.

 

 

 

 

[frd]

[mitchnick]

Nam's liking next week it seems. Good to know we have the 2 best models in support of our cause.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026013112&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

We just need to move that GL low along before it crushes it.

[GreyHat]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nam's liking next week it seems. Good to know we have the 2 best models in support of our cause.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026013112&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

We just need to move that GL low along before it crushes it.

The NAM shows a better trough but that Canada Lost likely will keep it south OTS.

That's the problem with the current one and this one. Let's hope these Canadian lows don't keep ruining it for us.

[Terpeast]

Looks like next week's event is a potential C-2" event for DC metro and south. As I said before, it's a minor event with minimal upside. Feb 10-15 window is the bigger one to watch, but starting to worry about too much ridging ahead of it. Hopefully the strong block should keep it south/wintry for us.

[stormtracker]

ICON finally gets a clue.  That was fun tho.

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nam's liking next week it seems. Good to know we have the 2 best models in support of our cause.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026013112&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

We just need to move that GL low along before it crushes it.

We lost the illustrious ICON

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

ICON finally gets a clue.  That was fun tho.

2-3” still I’d take that and run 

[Chris78]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

2-3” still I’d take that and run 

100% where do I sign

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We lost the illustrious ICON

It still has a "storm" instead of the Gfs sunny skies.