February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Heisy]

Indeed. 06z euro says wake up mid Atlantic and don't shit the blinds just yet!

Yea and there was more to come. There is this little ULL over SE Canada that is giving the models fits. Every model run keeps placing it in different locations every run. There is also now the question of a late phase. It would be extremely impactful if models go that way.

Euro Ai being so far SE is a pause for concern still, and the OP is an outlier until we see the EPS, but not out of the ballgame yet

[WxUSAF]

We’re so back

[mitchnick]

Incredible how seasonal trends can hold on, whether in reality or on modeling.

[mitchnick]

Eps. More to come after this too.

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We’re so back

I don't care about being back i can't wait for tonight's thrilling installment of the Chuck and psu podcast

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps

Not much to hate about that until someone chimes in with all of that is from one monster hit and 49 misses

[Heisy]

We’re so back

Technically this is an Archaumbault event with the NAO change. It argues for a stronger/farther N solution vs the Ai models.

Euro Ai gives me the most pause for concern of course, but we’re still at range where we could maybe see some significant changes

There’s also a world where the Ukie/cmc solutions are possible, similar 6z euro track but with the initial wave tracking farther N

00z Ukie was a MECS for interior to SNE

00z cmc parallel was like the Ukie but also got Philly in the game.

Lots to parse. The pieces are there. We have 50/50, but the ULL helping reinforce the cold is a bowling ball and models are all over the place with it. Strong shortwave coming out of the pac, and finally x-factor to me is any northern stream piece that potentially tries to phase in last second.

6z eps comparison vs 00z, you can see that phase trying to happen with the energy over the lakes

[bncho]

Upgraded CMC is slightly warmer but it's an all snow event NW of I95

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Not much to hate about that until someone chimes in with all of that is from one monster hit and 49 misses

Idk, all but a handful of Eps members has the slp in a decent location. In fact, just a few that are way ots skew the mean. We'll see.

[SnowenOutThere]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nice? Maaaaan ain't nobody but the heat misers want that right now, lol But a pronounced SER would fit nina clomo though...

If it ain’t going to snow we might as well torch. I’m done freezing my ass off walking to class. 

[anotherman]

12 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I don't care about being back i can't wait for tonight's thrilling installment of the Chuck and psu podcast

Please no

[aldie 22]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

Upgraded CMC is slightly warmer but it's an all snow event NW of I95

It's this models turn 

[Terpeast]

For now I’m considering 6z euro a “blip” and given thermals, the high snow accums may be a mirage. But there’s still time. We’re starting to enter the inevitable model reshuffling period (D3-5) where things can really change. Maybe for once the reshuffle goes in our favor?

[BristowWx]

Just now, Terpeast said:

For now I’m considering 6z euro a “blip” and given thermals, the high snow accums may be a mirage. But there’s still time. We’re starting to enter the inevitable model reshuffling period (D3-5) where things can really change. Maybe for once the reshuffle goes in our favor?

The irony is the need for cold after being so cold.  Like being flush with cash one week and then needing a go fund me the next.  its chuckle worthy.   

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

For now I’m considering 6z euro a “blip” and given thermals, the high snow accums may be a mirage. But there’s still time. We’re starting to enter the inevitable model reshuffling period (D3-5) where things can really change. Maybe for once the reshuffle goes in our favor?

Perfect phase, strong LP, and a perfect track. That has to be the outcome!

The temps are just above freezing where it has the heaviest snow. Heavy precip dynamic cooling deal. Clearly the best chance for snow in this pattern is NW with elevation.. if the storm makes it there. Pretty crazy run-to-run variations- busy NS, so its difficult to resolve wave timing and degree of interactions.

[Heisy]

I did a little comparison on all the models this morning.

All the models have that bowing ball in a similar location day 3, but there’s a second shortwave that dives underneath it.

Camp GFS, GFS Ai, Euro Ai have the bowing ball not reacting to that shortwave and it just meanders over SE Canada and blocks any attempt at our storm to come up the coast.

Camp euro, cmc, Ukie phase that shortwave with the bowling ball and kick it east into our 50/50 location



This interaction plays a big role on whether our storm can come up the coast or not. There’s other factors, but this is key imo

[stormy]

15 hours ago, IronTy said:

How much wind tho?   

1 pm average 8 - 15 mph

[stormtracker]

3 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Remember last week when I said you all are tracking a rainstorm and I was accused of negativity and whining and now 5 days of models runs later and you admit that I am in fact.......

Correct. 

And right after this sniveling post, the Euro came back.  Will it be right?  Probably not, but i don’t  know that enough to make declarative statement about what I’m tracking.  Go write a nasty PM to ECMWF about it.  

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

And right after this sniveling post, the Euro came back.  Will it be right?  Probably not, but Indont know that enough to make declarative statement la bout what I’m tracking.  Go write a nasty PM to ECMWF about it.  

If we get any snow this weekend even 1/2” he needs to voluntarily delete his account. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Oh my! I was about to give up completely on this.  Just checked the Euro for fun thinking it was gonna be showing a major rainstorm or nothing.

[LeesburgWx]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Upgraded CMC is slightly warmer but it's an all snow event NW of I95

Thank God I live in western Loudoun

[Ji]

Thank God I live in western Loudoun

It’s done nothing for you the past five years

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

It’s done nothing for you the past five years

I agree. I moved out this way for more snow and it’s done nothing for me. But it eventually has to average out and pay expected dividends.

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s done nothing for you the past five years

Eastern Loudoun where you live has been worse i hear