Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Santa Claus]

the models seem juicier

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

Yikes. Toaster bath to start off 0z

I wouldn't really say a toaster bath, it's still like 8+ of snow for NYC before any changeover, more where you are.

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Yikes. Toaster bath to start off 0z

All three models are short range models for a reason. Let’s see the rest first before sending out alarms. 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem really didn't change much accumulation wise

it looked warmer but if anything accumulations went up, I guess wetter?

[SACRUS]

 

00z ICON

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Prue11]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Surface temps have nothing to do with sleet. 

No shit but we very rarely get a cold air mass like this to line up with a big storm like this one. It’s usually marginal temps with either rain or snow 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

it looked warmer but if anything accumulations went up, I guess wetter?

Yeah and nice front end thump

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 00z ICON total QPF storm

 

 

Total Snow / sleep (10:1) :


 

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem really didn't change much accumulation wise

Nice!

[SACRUS]

35 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

00z Total QPF / Snow / Sleet
NYC

SREF:  1.3 /  (8.4)
NAM: 1.3 / (8.4)
RGEM: 1.4 / (8.6)
ICON: 1.3 / (7.5)
 

 

Updated

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

No shit but we very rarely get a cold air mass like this to line up with a big storm like this one. It’s usually marginal temps with either rain or snow 

True that part is unfortunate but it's still going to be a significant front end thump of snow.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Considering the way the rest of the decade has gone; I’m surprised we can still get snow like this anyway. 

See you in a week 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Considering the way the rest of the decade has gone; I’m surprised we can still get snow like this anyway. 

We got a raging blizzard 4 years ago. Are you an infant?

[allgame830]

I said it earlier the models are beefing up the QPF which can be a really good thing because if part of the subforum does sleet the few hours before it will rip like crazy at 2-3” an inch or a couple to few hours. These models aren’t gospel and don’t accurately predict how much snow can and will fall before any changeover. 

[Snowlover11]

So far Nam, Reggie, Icon all shoot mixing into Westchester, Rockland Counties. Definitely a warm push thus far on 0z suite.

[donsutherland1]

So far, the early 0z guidance has been more about confirming the idea that the snow will transition to sleet in parts of the New York City area (including the City and nearby suburbs) than changing storm total snowfall amounts. QPF has ticked higher.  All in all, it hasn't been a bad start to the 0z cycle. 

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

See you in a week 

He should tell that to the people in Oswego. They had four feet of snow in 24 hours.

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

We got a raging blizzard 4 years ago. Are you an infant?

Infants don't whine as much as that one.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Considering the way the rest of the decade has gone; I’m surprised we can still get snow like this anyway. 

Why? Even areas with warmer climates can see big snowstorms. The NYC area will continue to see periodic big snowstorms and snowy winters for the foreseeable future.

[Rjay]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Why? Even areas with warmer climates can see big snowstorms. The NYC area will continue to see periodic big snowstorms and snowy winters for the foreseeable future.

New Orleans picked up a foot last year lol 

[Dan76]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

We got a raging blizzard 4 years ago. Are you an infant?

Should change his sig to Krisis4Life

[Rjay]

At least I didn't suspend Franklin this time by accident 

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS ROLLING

[MJO812]

6-12 inches with sleet will make the snow concrete and cause a mess. The snow will not go anywhere next week with the frigid temps. Then we have to see if we get another snowstorm next weekend. 

[SACRUS]

1/23 00z GFS AI AIGFS

 

[kat5hurricane]

Not surprised at the north/warming trend as SWFEs frequently do, I suspect that the GFS will start to fall in line with the other models starting now but it's still a significant snow at least.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Not surprised at the north/warming trend as SWFEs frequently do, I suspect that the GFS will start to fall in line with the other models starting now but it's still a significant snow at least.

Every model is still significant snow.

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 GFS AI AIGFS total QPF storm

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Why? Even areas with warmer climates can see big snowstorms. The NYC area will continue to see periodic big snowstorms and snowy winters for the foreseeable future.

Agreed.  In my oversimplified view I think of getting a major snowstorm at the coast here as having similar odds as winning $50 on a $1 scratch off lottery ticket, which is something like 1 in 360.  That would work out to one big storm every four winters if distributed perfectly.   Maybe at the moment the odds are now 1 in 500, or one in every 5-6 winters, again *if distributed perfectly.*

Either way, you need a heck of a lot of luck to have a winner.  And given the low odds to begin with, the change in the total number of big storms that one sees in a lifetime might be so minor as to be unnoticeable.   Then when you consider the temperatures in the 1980s and the number of big snows and compare to the temperatures and big snows in the 2010s, it becomes apparent that its not just about cold.  Someone on this board posts a nice image of a triangle with the three ingredients for snow:  cold, moisture, and luck.  That's very true.