Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow 1/25 - 1/26

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Euro rolling 

[EastonSN+]

EC-AIFS is north and a good hit.

[Joe4alb]

so far so good on the AI

[Joe4alb]

[EastonSN+]

Actually further north with the overruning but less overall QPF on the northern tier of the forum.

[SACRUS]

 

Euro AI AIFS  Total QPF

 

[EastonSN+]

So the ec-aifs WAS further north, however, the storm escaped out faster so less QPF.

 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

12Z QPF Totals (NYC)

ICON: 0.9 - 1.1
GFS: Trace
GGEM: 0.6 - 0.8
GEFS: 0.5 - 0.6
UKMET: 1.00 - >1.00
Euro AI AIFS: 0.5 - 0.6
Euro:
GEPS:
EPS:

 

Updated with the Euro coming now

[eduggs]

Everything is dependent on the height field orientation and evolution. The cold air is in place to the north. There is ample moisture to the south. If the isoheight lines are oriented mostly west to east (zonal) on Sat & Sun from North Texas to North Carolina (e.g., GFS), then this is likely a southeast and mid-Atl snowstorm. If the isoheight lines evolve with more of a north-facing component (meridional), the moisture will track further north. The more meridional the height field, the more QPF we will likely get up in our region. The placement of surface features (highs, lows, precip. field) are a reflection of the mid-and upper-level height field. To get a favorable height field we need the ULL to eject east and a favorably timed northern stream shortwave to partially or fully phase.

[eduggs]

The 12z ECM-AI clearly has more wave interference than 6z. Slower ULL ejection and worse phasing. It's not as favorable a solution as last run, which was very good.

[eduggs]

The models and ensemble members that have a better phase are slower with the overrunning arrival and longer in total duration (CMC, UK, 6z ECM-AI). The worse phasing models (GFS, GFS-AI, 12z ECM-AI) are faster to arrive and shorter duration.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The 12z ECM-AI clearly has more wave interference than 6z. Slower ULL ejection and worse phasing. It's not as favorable a solution as last run, which was very good.

Ratio's at least 15:1  is what is going to make this a significant storm here - nobody is expecting a KU event - 8 - 12 inches with a half to three quarters inch QPF seems reasonable to me from most guidance so far - of course this could change one way or the other - keep our biases at the door and have an open mind...

[Stormlover74]

Euro is 36 hours of snow 

Going to be a nice hit even if not as good as last night

[Prue11]

It’s seems like Theres a lot of wishcasting going on now. Someone hear something that’s negative about there area and they immediately dismiss it lol

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro is 36 hours of snow 

I don’t buy it. 

[Nibor]

[mob1]

Just now, Nibor said:

That's amazing 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Prue11 said:

I don’t buy it. 

why ?

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro is 36 hours of snow 

my dream come true

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Ratio's at least 15:1  is what is going to make this a significant storm here - nobody is expecting a KU event - 8 - 12 inches with a half to three quarters inch QPF seems reasonable to me from most guidance so far - of course this could change one way or the other - keep our biases at the door and have an open mind...

If we trend towards the GFS-family, this could be a non-event. The 12z ECM-AI was actually a step towards that solution aloft, despite what it printed out in terms of QPF.

If we get a 6z ECMWF, 12z UK/ICON/CMC event, then this is definitely a NESIS/KU event with significant snow from Richmond to Boston.

I'm far from comfortable characterizing reasonable QPF expectations at this point. First I want to get more confidence that the 12 GFS solution is unlikely.

[Jt17]

I don’t buy it. 

lol this is literally wishcasting


.

[Franklin0529]

Just now, eduggs said:

If we trend towards the GFS-family, this could be a non-event. The 12z ECM-AI was actually a step towards that solution aloft, despite what it printed out in terms of QPF.

If we get a 6z ECMWF, 12z UK/ICON/CMC event, then this is definitely a NESIS/KU event with significant snow from Richmond to Boston.

I'm far from comfortable characterizing reasonable QPF expectations at this point. First I want to get more confidence that the 12 GFS solution is unlikely.

The gfs is literally alone 

[WeatherGeek2025]

40 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Remember back in the day whenever the EURO showed a big storm 5 days out you can lock it in. Ah good times.

 

43 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Having the UKIE moving towards the Euro is encouraging 

aren't you guys the same person?

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

I don’t buy it. 

And your professional credentials that make you smarter than a global computer model using AI are...

[CentralNJSnowman]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

 

aren't you guys the same person?

I think the guy who people refer to as Yanksfan was actually Yanksfan23 or something

[mriceyman]

aren't you guys the same person?

I thought u self banned yourself


.

[Jt17]

I thought u self banned yourself


.

He said he would if the gfs didn't improve the next run and it did massively lol.


.

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

If we trend towards the GFS-family, this could be a non-event. The 12z ECM-AI was actually a step towards that solution aloft, despite what it printed out in terms of QPF.

If we get a 6z ECMWF, 12z UK/ICON/CMC event, then this is definitely a NESIS/KU event with significant snow from Richmond to Boston.

I'm far from comfortable characterizing reasonable QPF expectations at this point. First I want to get more confidence that the 12 GFS solution is unlikely.

I consider the GFS solution unlikely  as of now because of little support from other model guidance and the history of this model showing extreme solutions at this range in the past -also the GEFS disagrees with it

[TriPol]

4 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

It’s seems like Theres a lot of wishcasting going on now. Someone hear something that’s negative about there area and they immediately dismiss it lol

We are following the trend on a group of computer models. If only one of them said this, once, then you would be correct to throw it away. As it is, several models have shown this for a substantial period of time.

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Prue11 said:

We’re 5 days out so you really think what you’re seeing now holds true on Sunday?

I mean every single model is showing the same thing except the GFS. Ensembles are as well. I mean there's really not much more you could ask for?