Storm potential January 17th-18th

[WeatherGeek2025]

Here comes the big one hopefully

[MJO812]

Why the hell did you make a thread? Smfh

[SI Mailman]

Still waiting on tomorrow’s snowstorm

[WeatherGeek2025]

that's a nice run

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SI Mailman said:

Still waiting on tomorrow’s snowstorm

This has support from the PNA. Other models are also trending west.

[WeatherGeek2025]

I wish we could get GFS solution but 40-50 miles west!

[hooralph]

Posting here before this gets deleted again.

[WeatherGeek2025]

5 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Posting here before this gets deleted again.

why should they delete a legit threat 4 days out? It's only right we post the potential in this thread. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

why should they delete a legit threat 4 days out? It's only right we post the potential in this thread. 

Because it’s the GFS lol

[hooralph]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

why should they delete a legit threat 4 days out? It's only right we post the potential in this thread. 

Because there is a long and well-established tradition of creating threads for storms only when there is stronger model support. like... more than one? Not saying it won't happen, but cluttering up the board with threads for storms that could be gone by 18z is a thing the community decided it didn't want.

OG's will remember once upon a time there were threads for each model run when big dogs were incoming.

[WeatherGeek2025]

CMC loading!

[EastonSN+]

Light snow now on the CMC. Shifted west.

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Light snow now on the CMC. Shifted west.

CMc shows a small wave hitting the area on Saturday afternoon potentially accumulating 1-2 inches!

[Krs4Lfe]

15 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Still waiting on tomorrow’s snowstorm

I'm still waiting for the one on 1/7 and the pattern change to colder weather on 1/11

[WeatherGeek2025]

clown maps for GFS and CMC

[hudsonvalley21]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

I wish we could get GFS solution but 40-50 miles west!

The jump west from the 06z run was big. Don’t want too much of a jump this far out.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I'm still waiting for the one on 1/7 and the pattern change to colder weather on 1/11

Give it a rest

[SnowGoose69]

Its rare to see the GFS actually be the one showing this when nothing else is, albeit everything did move in that general direction and the EPS has been more west too.  I think this for the moment is still an outlier though.  We need to see this organize pretty far west down in SC/GA in order to get something to be a hit for most of our area.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

30 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Here comes the big one hopefully

There's just no stopping you is there? 

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

There's just no stopping you is there? 

runaway train of delusion fueled by digital blue

[Krs4Lfe]

UK shows nothing. 

GFS shows a bomb. 

CMC has a light-moderate event. 

Icon has a light-moderate event. 

We'll see what Euro says

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

that's a nice run

this obviously is overdone especially with the sharp intensity and precip total boundaries - no other support - plus with such a strong storm it should show some precip further west also - not going from nothing in Eastern PA to over a foot in NYC - guaranteed this will be different at 0Z

[eduggs]

The GDPS shows 3 separate periods of snow - including weekend, daytime snow! It ends up as a fairly long duration light event with moderate snow accumulations region-wide. I like that outcome a lot.

The GFS shows a high-end threat. That's a beautiful coastal storm evolution with NESIS potential. Things have been trending better for 2 days, but we might have reached the end of the trend. The UK backed off and the GEFS individuals are all east of and weaker than the GFS SLP except one weaker member near ELI. You could argue it both ways, but I prefer not seeing the OP GFS west of the ensemble spread. That's a red flag.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GDPS shows 3 separate periods of snow - including weekend, daytime snow! It ends up as a fairly long duration light event with moderate snow accumulations region-wide. I like that outcome a lot.

The GFS shows a high-end threat. That's a beautiful coastal storm evolution with NESIS potential. Things have been trending better for 2 days, but we might have reached the end of the trend. The UK backed off and the GEFS individuals are all east of and weaker than the GFS SLP except one weaker member near ELI. You could argue it both ways, but I prefer not seeing the OP GFS west of the ensemble spread. That's a red flag.

one thing out of all your analysis is the GFS ensembles are west from the previous run

[eduggs]

I like how even thought the UK misses east with the coastal, it produces a snowy Saturday with a plowable snowfall for I-95 N&W.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

UKMET is east which euro will probably follow. 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

one thing out of all your analysis is the GFS ensembles are west from the previous run

Yeah, but only slightly. And nothing to support the explosive 12z GFS solution.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Yeah, but only slightly. And nothing to support the explosive 12z GFS solution.

I think we want the Saturdays mini wave to go way west of us for us to actually get the big coastal on Sunday. Can't be both. So it looks like either one could hit us, saturday ceiling is probably 2-4 but if GFS is right we could talk a foot of snow for the city and more east!

[Tar Heel Snow]

I really liked these thoughts from another forum. Basically we’ve seen the high end potential with plenty of lead time to go. This feels like we’ve backed into a really nice potential setup here if we can get it to ride more N/S, which Ops are more likely to show at this stage than Ens. We’re in that weird modeling liminal time frame now

[eduggs]

Historically this is a great spot to be in for local snowfall ~ 4 days out. There are multiple shots of snow this weekend including a potential coastal event modeled just offshore. Many many times in the past these would shift NW in the final days to deliver a solid hit. If we weren't so snake-bit over the past several years I think there would be more excitement.