January 16-19th: Rolling the dice

[clskinsfan]

Boston gets smoked on the GFS. Jealous.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Boston gets smoked on the GFS. Jealous.

Watch this be another 100" winter for them.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs is a miss finally gave up. Terrible model. Doesn’t even show snow tomorrow either. Going to bust on a 12hr forecast too. Shut it down. 

I dunno why I even look at it.  Especially for long range when it can’t get under 72 hours right. 

[WxUSAF]

GFSAI still way west. Smidge east of 6z, but noise level probably. And GGEM west of its mesos. Really have no idea what to think for Sunday.

[TSSN+]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

GFSAI still way west. Smidge east of 6z, but noise level probably. And GGEM west of its mesos. Really have no idea what to think for Sunday.

I do. Nothing. Euro and ukemt will be no where close to us I am betting. 

[CAPE]

Just looked further upstairs on the GFS and I think the snow its developing over eastern parts of our region is driven by the upper jet- right entrance region of a pretty impressive jet streak aligns with the location where the snow falls. Euro is weaker with that feature. That might explain the persistence on the GFS despite the low position being pretty far offshore.

[RevWarReenactor]

19 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs is a miss finally gave up. Terrible model. Doesn’t even show snow tomorrow either. Going to bust on a 12hr forecast too. Shut it down. 

It did? Looks about the same as 6z to me. Maybe a slight tick east. Still okay here if I’m setting expectations at 1-2 inches. But yeah- it’s not a reliable model anymore. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Boston gets smoked on the GFS. Jealous.

2" is smoked?

[paulythegun]

PAIN

[clskinsfan]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

2" is smoked?

In this winter? Yes it is.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

It did? Looks about the same as 6z to me. Maybe a slight tick east. Still okay here if I’m setting expectations at 1-2 inches. But yeah- it’s not a reliable model anymore. 

Its not a miss for eastern areas. Has 2.5" here verbatim. Now do I believe its correct? 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, paulythegun said:

PAIN

Sure it will be a blank map by tonight. 

[RevWarReenactor]

1 minute ago, paulythegun said:

PAIN

Oh that is quite a step back. Next run it will be in line with the euro. Garbage model 

[TSSN+]

Ukmet for Sunday is a big fat nothing 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet for Sunday is a big fat nothing 

I’ll hug the hell out of it for tomorrow though

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet for Sunday is a big fat nothing 

Rap looks nice for many.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ll hug the hell out of it for tomorrow though

I mean it’s in line with hrrr, Nam, euro (6z) so it’s going to snow somewhere around here decently 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Rap looks nice for many.

For tomorrow yes 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

For tomorrow yes 

I'm trying to get myself from looking beyond 24 hours before this "hobby" kills me! Lol

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I'm trying to get myself from looking beyond 24 hours before this "hobby" kills me! Lol

Chasing the white stuff both one and the same, it’ll kill ya. 

 

[CAPE]

12z Canadian looks as good as it ever has for Sunday-Monday am. Better than the GFS now lol

[CAPE]

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Good luck with that lol. Euro about to be over bremuda 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Good luck with that lol. Euro about to be over bremuda 

Just posting what the CMC depicts. 

We got the UKMET and the RAP up in here ffs.

[dailylurker]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Rap looks nice for many.

You spelled "many" wrong. It's PSU lol

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just posting what the CMC depicts. 

We got the UKMET and the RAP up in here ffs.

Ukmet is actually a good model scores usually just under the euro. And ya if and most likely the gem is wrong it’s a bad bust for this close. 

[stormy]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Boston gets smoked on the GFS. Jealous.

They need to get smoked.  Winter to date, they are 40% under normal snowfall.

[CAPE]

Just now, dailylurker said:

You spelled "many" wrong. It's PSU lol

..many up in SE PA

that also works lol

[CAPE]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet is actually a good model scores usually just under the euro. And ya if and most likely the gem is wrong it’s a bad bust for this close. 

Yes the wonderful UKMET and its mysterious 'great scores' Rarely see it mentioned in a NWS forecast discussion.

I gotta keep promoting my storm just in case...otherwise if it does produce, unlikely as that may be, the peeps will say I gave up on it.

[LP08]

Both AI models (euro and gfs) are wester than everything right now.  A good test to see how those perform.