October Hybrid: 2025 Edition

[Typhoon Tip]

This was/is always likely to be nothing more than a climo nor'easter.  Pretty much just an autumnal raw rainy time of it, swept along by manageable wind. Less than very remarkable in either case. That should be the baseline expectation with this thing.  Yeah, that allows a realistic expectation that someone, some how might over-achieve in either measure, but any observation would be the exceptions to the rule. 

I still wonder if at the last minute ... a bit of a S contraction in late modeling with less push all the way up.  I'm not forecasting that, but I'd be leery of that happening.  Either way, the high pressure that's currently parked and giving cause to the current shot across the bow air mass, is retreating due east.  SO... it may result less d-drip dose potency than wanted, but your getting a raw east wind whether this thing does that weird oblong thrust up the coast or not. 

One aspect I'm noticing is just how weak this whole structure is in the H500 evolution.  35 kt jet at 500 mb, parallel offshore the EC doesn't typically inspire all that much.  The low pressure is objectively not modeled much lower than 1000 mb - some guidance as low a 995 but the average is higher than that.  Even though I said 'climate nor'easter' above, the former is in fact weaker than a climate nor'easter.  I'm only giving it that much in deference to that structural anomaly these guidance insist will take place; a bit of an anomalous polarward expansion around the N wall of the cyclone basin. 

[jbenedet]

The current display off the coast of Florida is impressive. Really wouldn’t think this amounts to a 1000mb low over OBX. I think it doesn’t fit the calendar wrt hurricane season. 
 

It’s not the bet to make—that this ends up much stronger than guidance consensus—but it’s something to watch closely.

[SouthCoastMA]

Euro is over 4" here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just an early idea.. but 50 ish gusts pike south and 60 ish 95 south and east . These seem reasonable at this early juncture . Definitely many outages with leaves on trees and any kind of Easterly wind direction component which trees are not accustomed to . And it’s a long duration wind event 

 

 

 

It's interestingly suggestive of the resolution of these two models.  The Euro being more discrete tries to expose more precisely where the winds gust higher in the outlook ...notice the elevation with that.   The GFS is "fuzzier" with it being less resolved. 

[jbenedet]

Something else that’s often lost on these hybrids is that the magnitude of impacts are often dictated by the strength of the surface high; not the min SLP. The surface high has been very gradually strengthening with time on guidance.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's interestingly suggestive of the resolution of these two models.  The Euro being more discrete tries to expose more precisely where the winds gust higher in the outlook ...notice the elevation with that.   The GFS is "fuzzier" with it being less resolved. 

I canceled that whole thought process after the overnight runs . More boredom ahead as far as eye can see. 

[metagraphica]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I canceled that whole thought process after the overnight runs . More boredom ahead as far as eye can see. 

[[email protected]~]#kill -9 10102025 

[[email protected]~]#Cancel Thatsalotofdamage.exe 

[qg_omega]

Trending to zzzzzz

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Trending to zzzzzz

I hope we getting nothing.

[SouthCoastMA]

RGEM is 5-6". 

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, Bryan63 said:

Sorry to ask a 'me' question, but my parents are making the drive back to NC and trying to figure out the best timing for them.

Right now my mind set is leaving Saturday getting into Southern NJ/Delaware for their hotel, and then finishing the drive Sunday. Looks like most of the weather would pass them overnight but not sure.

it's just rain and a little wind. i highly doubt it would impact any driving, unless they are like 100 years old and shouldn't be driving anyway.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Trending to zzzzzz

I doubt we will see freezing rain.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

RGEM is 5-6". 

RGEM and NAM are quite different.

[mob1]

[weatherwiz]

A widespread 5-6'' is going to be tough to come by I think because once occlusion occurs smaller-scale processes will then factor into where any heavier rain occurs, but a widespread 2-4" I think is very doable. I would not be surprised though to see some 6-8" amounts locally, particularly along the coast (but a bit inland). Probably see a secondary max too up north across east facing slopes 

[CT Rain]

GFS is really nasty for the Jersey Shore. Doesn't look like a whole lot around here besides rain and some wind. 

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

GFS is really nasty for the Jersey Shore. Doesn't look like a whole lot around here besides rain and some wind. 

Caving to Euro after all the bashing of the Euro here by the Wolf of Weather 

[powderfreak]

From hard freeze to OBX.

Wind is steady out of the east with blowing sand on the dunes.

Ocean is rough.

[forkyfork]

i just don't know. not a fan of all that energy in the west

[Snowcrazed71]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I canceled that whole thought process after the overnight runs . More boredom ahead as far as eye can see. 

Well, I'm sorry your not getting your catastrophic wind event ( I myself am not ). However mundane it is for you, it will be welcomed by many for the rain we will get.  Don't get me wrong, I love a good storm, but I don't want trees down all over the place around my property or on my house, and I'm sure many will feel the same way. 

Bring on the rain.... And better yet, let's get this pattern going for the winter so we can bring on the snow!!!

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Caving to Euro after all the bashing of the Euro here by the Wolf of Weather 

Euro was like 200 miles south and sun here. Model sucked.

[CoastalWx]

12z euro yesterday barely had .25" here. Glue factory.

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well, I'm sorry your not getting your catastrophic wind event ( I myself am not ). However mundane it is for you, it will be welcomed by many for the rain we will get.  Don't get me wrong, I love a good storm, but I don't want trees down all over the place around my property or on my house, and I'm sure many will feel the same way. 

Bring on the rain.... And better yet, let's get this pattern going for the winter so we can bring on the snow!!!

This setup would probably be a disaster in the winter. A weak storm occluding well south  of us with persistent easterly flow sounds like marginal temps with a shredded precipitation shield. Maybe the high would save some of us in the forum but idk here in CT. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Absolute boringest solution . Unreal 

[mob1]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Absolute boringest solution . Unreal 

At least it's for a rain (and wind) event.